No system quals again.
The Scottish Stewards Cup
- 12/16 Top 5 LTO
- 14/16 Aged 6 or younger
- Favs: 6/18 runners, 11 places
- 10/10 Aged 6 or younger
- 10/10 same or up 1 class from LTO
- OR 2lb lower or more from last start: 0/26,1
- A comment from Nick got me thinking about that angle,never used it before for trends etc (the OR move from LTO)
- 10/10 placed at least once on last 4 starts (0/18,1p had not)
- 0 Distance wins: 0/18,2p
- Had run over 9f or further in career: 0/24,2p
I believe those 10 year stats leave: War Department / Red Pike / Flying Pursuit / Classic Seniority / King Robert / Six Strings (Fahey 4/22,6p in race,best record) / Al Qahwa / Rich And Famous
(which is just over 1/2 the field!)
There is the ‘horse last win stats’ which I know Chris has used below… last win 2 or 3 starts ago are 0/36,1p… i am trying to think of the logic for that. Could be that LTO winners are clearly in form/possibly progressive, but last wins 2 or 3 starts ago and none since indicate they hit a ceiling,or peaked at that point. There may be something there. Anyway, if you use that stat that leaves the first 5 from the original shortlist:
War Department UP/ Red Pike UP/ Flying Pursuit UP / Classic Seniority WON 16/1 / King Robert UP
From that shortlist my preference would be for Flying Pursuit and Classic Seniority. The others have a few too many questions to answer for me but they hit the stats so they may well go close!
Flying Pursuit – well he is just in form and there could be more to come. He has placed in some class 2s and not had many goes. The CP also seemed to work well LTO and there could be more to come. He will also race up there on the pace, which may or may not be the place to be. He should run his race and there is no obvious reason to be against him (which is probably the mindset to take with shortlisted horses, which is different from the ‘can i make a case for them’ mindset) He wouldn’t mind if the ground is on the softer side. Looks like it should be GS at worst depending on any rain they get. But it definitely doesn’t look like being GF.
Classic Seniority –WON 16/1 he hasn’t done much wrong and has solid big field handicap form to his name. He comes here in good form and conditions look fine. He covers the ‘pace burn up’ scenario- there are a few who like to get on with it in here so we shall see- but he stays further and will relish this climb to the line. If they fall in a heep he could sweep past the lot and take the spoils.
Get Knotted– not on my shortlist but he qualifies on one of my 3 strategies for the Members’ stats and again it is hard to say he can’t take this. The last time he ran over 6f on turf he went very very close in a decent enough race at Donny. He is 2lb lower here and may like the track. He also comes here in form having stayed on steadily the last day. He could go very well.
So, those three bullets will do for me. War Department – i have concerns over the ground, his best form on GF/AW, and he hasn’t run over this trip for a while. Not impossible and he is in form. Red Pike is 0/15 in C2 or higher and while the odd place he has the odd question and doesn’t seem to like winning these days. The yard is only going ok as well, still to fully come out of the enforced closure due to the equine herpes in Ryan’s yard which I think is just up the road. I think King Robert may not be good enough/needs to show more. But he is lightly raced and maybe it is hard to say he can’t get involved. But based on what many of these have achieved so far/their current form, he looks up against it to my eyes.
I should mention Naggers- who may well beat the lot- his speed figure is big and quite a way ahead of these. And favs have a very good record in this. Indeed backing them all would have seen you do quite well in this race. But, where is the fun in that! I won’t be shocked if he takes this and will appreciate the return to 6f. But, he will need luck in running and hopefully the door is slammed shut by someone, allowing one of the three above to cling on!
GL whatever you go with, if anything.
That’s all for today. Full steam ahead for Market Rasen… I will have a look at the Plate. A bit shorter than my preferred 3 miles but it is a decent handicap chase and I have to look at one of those every now and then over the summer just to keep me sain. Last time I played in one we had the 12/1 winner and 10/1 4th so you never know!