Free Daily Post: 21/07/17 (complete)

Stewards Cup x2/thoughts etc

No system quals again.

**

The Scottish Stewards Cup 

  • 12/16 Top 5 LTO
  • 14/16 Aged 6 or younger
  • Favs: 6/18 runners, 11 places

*

  • 10/10 Aged 6 or younger
  • 10/10 same or up 1 class from LTO
  • OR 2lb lower or more from last start: 0/26,1
    • A comment from Nick got me thinking about that angle,never used it before for trends etc (the OR move from LTO)
  • 10/10 placed at least once on last 4 starts  (0/18,1p had not)
  • 0 Distance wins:  0/18,2p
  • Had run over 9f or further in career: 0/24,2p

 

I believe those 10 year stats leave: War Department / Red Pike / Flying Pursuit / Classic Seniority / King Robert / Six Strings (Fahey 4/22,6p in race,best record) / Al Qahwa / Rich And Famous

(which is just over 1/2 the field!)

There is the ‘horse last win stats’ which I know Chris has used below… last win 2 or 3 starts ago are 0/36,1p… i am trying to think of the logic for that. Could be that LTO winners are clearly in form/possibly progressive, but last wins 2 or 3 starts ago and none since indicate they hit a ceiling,or peaked at that point. There may be something there. Anyway, if you use that stat that leaves the first 5 from the original shortlist:

War Department UP/ Red Pike UP/ Flying Pursuit UP / Classic Seniority WON 16/1 / King Robert UP

**

Thoughts…

From that shortlist my preference would be for Flying Pursuit and Classic Seniority. The others have a few too many questions to answer for me but they hit the stats so they may well go close!

Flying Pursuit – well he is just in form and there could be more to come. He has placed in some class 2s and not had many goes. The CP also seemed to work well LTO and there could be more to come. He will also race up there on the pace, which may or may not be the place to be. He should run his race and there is no obvious reason to be against him (which is probably the mindset to take with shortlisted horses, which is different from the ‘can i make a case for them’ mindset) He wouldn’t mind if the ground is on the softer side. Looks like it should be GS at worst depending on any rain they get. But it definitely doesn’t look like being GF.

Classic Seniority WON 16/1  he hasn’t done much wrong and has solid big field handicap form to his name. He comes here in good form and conditions look fine. He covers the ‘pace burn up’ scenario- there are a few who like to get on with it in here so we shall see- but he stays further and will relish this climb to the line. If they fall in a heep he could sweep past the lot and take the spoils.

Get Knotted– not on my shortlist but he qualifies on one of my 3 strategies for the Members’ stats and again it is hard to say he can’t take this. The last time he ran over 6f on turf he went very very close in a decent enough race at Donny. He is 2lb lower here and may like the track. He also comes here in form having stayed on steadily the last day. He could go very well.

 

So, those three bullets will do for me. War Department – i have concerns over the ground, his best form on GF/AW, and he hasn’t run over this trip for a while. Not impossible and he is in form. Red Pike is 0/15 in C2 or higher and while the odd place he has the odd question and doesn’t seem to like winning these days. The yard is only going ok as well, still to fully come out of the enforced closure due to the equine herpes in Ryan’s yard which I think is just up the road. I think King Robert may not be good enough/needs to show more. But he is lightly raced and maybe it is hard to say he can’t get involved. But based on what many of these have achieved so far/their current form, he looks up against it to my eyes.

I should mention Naggers- who may well beat the lot- his speed figure is big and quite a way ahead of these. And favs have a very good record in this. Indeed backing them all would have seen you do quite well in this race. But, where is the fun in that! I won’t be shocked if he takes this and will appreciate the return to 6f. But, he will need luck in running and hopefully the door is slammed shut by someone, allowing one of the three above to cling on!

GL whatever you go with, if anything.

**

That’s all for today. Full steam ahead for Market Rasen… I will have a look at the Plate. A bit shorter than my preferred 3 miles but it is a decent handicap chase and I have to look at one of those every now and then over the summer just to keep me sain. Last time I played in one we had the 12/1 winner and 10/1 4th so you never know!

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

36 Responses

  1. One for tonight which I like in the 20;40 at Epsom. Peleton was a solid 5th at Sandown 2 starts ago and was put up 4 lbs for the effort. The winner has won twice since and is now rated 17lbs higher. The runner up went close in a class 3 off 5lbs higher and the 3rd and 4th have both won since. Following that run he went off as fav NTO and but didn’t look to stay the 1m2f. He has been dropped 2lbs for that and Paddy Bradley (2 wins from his last 4 runs including one for the trainer) takes off a further 5lbs. I also think the cut in the ground will help given his best run as a 2yr old came on it. (it certainly wont hurt) Trainer is a solid 4/20 in handicaps at the track in the past 2 years. At 6/1 he is just about an e/w bet particularly with just the 9 runners.

  2. 7.20 Hamilton (Friday)
    Scottish Steward’s Cup 6f C2

    16 years – 218 runners
    Runs since place, >4: 0/39,4p

    10 years – 141 runners
    Aged 7 or older: 0/36
    Last win, 2-3 runs ago: 0/36
    Last run, >6f: 1/37
    Last run, >21k prizemoney: 1/37
    Last win, Class 4 or lower: 1/31

    Red Pike (14/1), Flying Pursuit (12/1), King Robert (18/1) pass all the above.
    Get Knotted (12/1) fails only on the 16 year stat.

    🙂

    1. Thanks Chris. I was just trying to decide about Red Pike and was hoping he was going to turn up on your list. Has a 221 record at the track also and wont mind the ground. Trainer’s record at the track the only concern.

      1. You’re welcome.

        Yep, struggling to dress up Smart’s poor recent record here – 0/6,0p in this race. 24 runners since his last win here, 1 winner in last 44.

        One I was hoping to pass through was Jack Dexter who ticks all the 10 year trends except age.
        This time last year he was rated 100+. 7 of his 9 career wins have been over 6f yet his last 4 runs have been over 5f and is now rated just 88.
        Watching his recent runs suggest to me he has retained his ability.
        Plenty in the race who wanting to lead/race prominently could well set it up for hold up horse like him.
        Did open up at 20/1 at 4.30pm which disappeared within seconds.

        Look forward to reading your thoughts too, Josh.

  3. 7.35 Pontefract

    218 runners – 20 years.
    Last run, NO top 10 : 0/44,4p

    102 years – 10 runners.
    Runs since win, 10 or more: 0/31
    Career wins, 2-3: 0/26
    Handicap wins, 1-2: 0/25

    Signore Piccolo (9/2), Avon Breeze (9/1),Lucky Beggar (11/1) and My Name Is Rio (16/1) are the four that remain.

    🙂

  4. Looked at my HRB qualifiers for today and saw a race trends come up. The Scottish Stewards cup, I had 9 qualifiers, I immediately said out loud ‘HOW MANY???’. I usually get about 3, 4 or 5, so I thought I’d have another look at it. I noticed the varying ground conditions over the years and thought it was slightly odd compared to a lot of other trends races I’ve looked at first, so I thought if this could be a tenuous way in.

    All previous winners back to 2006 have won over the going and distance and I threw in nothing over the age of 6 which leaves 8 from 15 providing the ground stays good. Mmmmm…not a bad start, all previous are running in the same class or up 1, that leaves five. Numbers 5, 7, 8, 10 and 11. Its 2 am and the WSOP is on so I’ll try and finish this tomorrow!!

  5. has anyone used Racing Breaks? looking to book for Cheltenham and they are offering 2 days ( 1&2 or 2&3) best mate enclosure ,overnight b&b, free parking, shuttle bus to course £209. there is an upgrade to tattersalls for £35 available but as i have never been to Cheltenham before don’t know if it’s worth the extra, any advice? also trying to choose between champions day and St patricks day i’m leaning towards St patricks, any opinions advice gratefully recieved.

    1. I’d take the enclosure upgrade from the Best Mate enclosure. It’s a hell of a long way to the paddock and Guinness village otherwise.
      Hugh

  6. Two I also like for today other than Red Pike. I thought Glenrowan Rose was interesting in the 18:50 at Hamilton. Trainer thought she was on a decent mark at the start of the season. In her five starts she completely missed the break, ran 3 times in non-handicap listed races which are above her level and hated the hood. As a result she has been dropped 10lbs. Beasley takes over which I thought was interesting. On her only start at the track she made all to win. There is absolutely zero pace here which will seriously impede a few of these so I think they will try and make all here. Trainer does well here and noticed she is actually an Elite Squad qualifier. Obviously it could be that she is totally out of form but at the price she was a shot.

    I also like Poet’s Princess in the 19:45 st Newmarket who is another that has been racing above her pay grade in class 1s but has finished a close second on her last two runs in class 2s with the winner of the last one following up in a much better race. She drops into a class 3 here for her in form trainer and looks to be competitive.

      1. well done, one for the Elite Squad which has made my day at a price… without that I’m not sure i would have picked him out ‘cold’ so well done, sounds like you picked him, boosted confidence with ES, i was the other way round haha. Top picking.

        1. I had her picked last night before I realized she was one in fairness. Pace was certainly the key there. That and effectively dropping from listed races into a class 4 if you take the race out with the unsuitable hood on. Amazed she got dropped 5lbs for that.

  7. Good Lord, the 2yo races at Newbury today look competitive. On top of that it looks like the rain might arrive by the time they kick off. Not doing the Rose Bowl as I have to leave early to get to The Oval for the 20/20 Surrey v Middlesex tonight. What a life!

    To be frank at the moment the 7f maidens look like pinstickers. I like the look of the Gosden runners, Ode To Autumn 1.40 and Elsaakb 2.10. He’s good with 7f debuts and Exchange Rates like th g/s so Elsaakb looks promising. Will try to tweet if he looks ok.
    21st July Newbury 7f Nov D1
    4.25 Mildenberger, Al Jellaby, Dubhe
    3.75 Bombshell Bay, Letsbe Avenue, Ode To Autumn, Wing’s Of Gold
    3.5
    3.25 Carlini, Motown Mick, Rockwell Lloyd
    3
    2.75
    2.5 Quick Breath
    2.25
    2
    Preview – Lovely race in prospect. Unless Mildenberger is listed class at least he looks to have a lot on his plate. Dubhe and Al Jellaby are most fancied in the market and it is always worth paying close attention to Gosden debutants over 7f and Meehan runners at Newbury. With Hannon SBS and Channon also here it is wide open.

    Prior race notes
    Motown Mick – Only here for the beer, plainish type, not ready to compete yet, sufficient strength and bulk to think he can improve considerably for this, look at his belly, no wonder he was outpaced early on. 75

    21st July Newbury 7f Nov D2
    4.25 He’s Amazing, Stage Magic
    3.75 Albishr
    3.5
    3.25 Elsaakhb, Glacier, Lucky’s Dream, Mosalim, Nebuchadnezzar
    3
    2.75 Metatron’s Cube, Universal Command
    2.5
    2.25
    2
    Preview – Hannon’s debut winner Albishr a rare debut winner for Clodovil but it didn’t look a very good race and he is not so big carrying an extra 7lb. Stage Magic looked a bit awkward on his debut, he was beaten by Leeshan, a horse I only rated 72 so am not sure that he is any value here at odds on.
    The Gosden Exchange Rate colt looks interesting particularly if there is any more rain before 2.10pm. Exchange Rates have a high strike rate on g/s to s. A note of caution for me that he has Crowley up, poor Newbury strike rate, oh for Rab Havlin!
    Haggas (Mosalim) has sent Cosgrave to Nottingham for one stable ride and puts up Wiston here who has a poor stike rate at Newbury.

    Prior race notes
    Glacier – Inexplicably bad runs from the Hannon pair. This one looking the lesser model although shorter. Both big prices so hear to learn but very unimpressive. 67
    21st July Newbury 6f Fillies Nov
    4.25 Elation, Jean Paget, Lady Dancealot
    3.75 Fanciful Miss, It’s Not Unusual, Jane Rose, Mayyasah, Maygold, Mushahadaat
    3.5
    3.25 Daybreak, Shoyd
    3
    2.75 Kodiac Express, Lady Of The Court
    2.5 Choral Music
    Preview – Any one of 9!

    Prior race notes
    Kodiac Express – Disappointing type for a Kodiac. Ran reasonably professionally but unlikely to improve much. 62
    Kodiac Express – Had come on from her debut. Small, lacking scope 62
    Shoyd – Common type, hint of athleticism but doubt she has much improvement in her. 60
    Hugh

  8. Josh/Nick,

    Talking of OR trends, I’ve been meaning to look into current OR compared to last winning OR and how that compares to previous winners. Not sure whether HRB has that facility though?

  9. A couple more today for the Fahey system mentioned yesterday:
    2.30 Nottingham,Gangland, 3/1.
    4.45 Nottingham, Normandie Lady, 13/2.

    Also another one for the Appleby system mentioned on Wednesday:
    8.15 Newmarket, Song Maker,7/4.

  10. Josh/all
    7.20 Hamilton
    I think it’s dangerous to leave Faheys horse out of calculations for two reasons.
    1. His record in this race is excellent.
    2, If Six Strings produces his running with Parfait as a juvenile he will go very close.
    The uphill finish may be his biggest problem.
    3 year olds do win this race.
    Good luck all.
    Dave

    1. Hi Dave, you won’t get me talking you out of a sprint handicapper if you like them! You could probably back faheys runners in this forever more EW and end up doing quite well, along with savers on any favs!! That may well be a good little systematic app for this race. He is young, unexposed and still in the could be anything category. Given that and trainer’s record I can more than see why you would have a dabble.
      With one system or another, and other readers ideas etc we probably have most of the field covered!! Some of us will be cheering with any luck. GL

  11. 7.20 Hamilton

    RED PIKE
    10/1, 365 1/4 1,2,3
    18/1, Sky 1/5 1,2,3,4

    I note that the 4th run of the season over the last three years has been a very much improved speed figure.
    Further, Tom Eaves has been called back to the plate.
    Ed

    1. GL Edmund, no doubt I have left the winner on the shortlist! Gary Priestley has tipped him up as well, so i should probably take covering fire! This is never the strongest C2 albeit he has always struggled a bit at this level and sprinters with 21+ day breaks (albeit I like one of them) always make me wary -albeit not much science behind that ‘feeling’!
      Josh

      1. I agree with you that he hasn’t won at this level Josh but to say he has struggled is probably a bit unfair on him. If you look at his 6f runs on the flat with no more than a 60 day break he has only ever ran 2 bad races and that was off marks of 99 and 101. He got within 2-3 lengths in several races last year which are better than this off higher marks. Obviously given the drift he will probably leave me with egg on my face after I have said that.

        1. You lot are brave taking on such handicaps, especially if betting on them! There are easier ways to make money you know.

          1. oh for sure, i’m not taking out a loan, but a little dabble. I just can’t resist the puzzle and like to think one day i’ll solve enough of them! Thats a questionable view at the moment mind. Not races to go mad in. But they are satisfying if you get them right.

          2. I think we all have differing opinions Martin. I personally think backing odds on shots/favorites is a mugs game but you seem to do well out of it mate.

          3. Not odds on. 6/4 minimum but also 33/1 shots. All about value in a race. I do have a gio in handicaps at a price usually on Saturdays. I posted a 20/1 shot today.

  12. Well done on the big priced winners Josh/Nick and anyone else I’ve missed off.
    Fully armed for the weekend now!

    1. Cheers Chris, hopefully between us we have this trends game by the proverbial haha. Yep been good couple of races at Hamilton.

      All pales into insignificance now sadly, with that awful news about the stalls handler at Haydock who has lost his life, seemingly run over/crushed by the stalls. Very sad news.

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