Free Daily Post: 20/07/17 (complete)

nothing today….

No stats qualifiers.

 

A ‘day off’ today, nothing jumping out in what is generally a day of quantity over quality.

GL with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

10 Responses

  1. 7.50 Doncaster (Thurs)

    Just the 8 years of data to look through involving 79 runners.

    Last run, NO top 4: 1/46
    Last run, Class 3 : 1/33
    Wins at 7f, NOT 1-2: 0/38

    Explain (5/1) the only one to tick all the boxes.

    From the other day…
    Fahey has shown to do well with his fancied (<25/1) handicap runners at Leicester/Nottingham/Warwick over 6f-1m1f.
    This year he is now 4/17,+2 BFSP, 2016: 9/41 +50, 2015:11/33 +77, 2014: 6/28 +18.

    Three fit the bill tomorrow:
    3.15 Leicester,Character Onesie, 5/2.
    3.50 Leicester, Bahamian Bird, 10/1.
    4.20 Leicester, Ventura Dragon, 13/2.

  2. a few at Chepstow today from my notebook that ran well lto without getting their noses in front, downside of course is that any value has gone but might still be worth another go.
    2-55 Carcharias 4-1
    3-25 Spare Parts 11-2
    4-00 Farleigh Mac 9-4
    4-30 Toni’s a Star 9-1

  3. 2.20 Chepstow
    I’ve not seen all of these but have seen Kimifive, Time For Wine, She Believes and Swissal.

    Ragstone View is the unknown for me but I’m not inclined to take a short price about a Hughes 2yo. At 12’s and 9’s respectively I am having a small e/w on Time For Wine and Swissal.
    Hugh

  4. Hi Josh (and any other HRB users here),

    I am trying to explore a way in where due to a combination of a drop in its rating and/or the jockey’s claim any given horse is running off at least 10lbs lower than his/her last run(generally barring very rare cases you’re likely going to need both to drop it that far). I can work with the claiming jockey part but any other thoughts how I can do this? (I presume there is no easy way of doing it)

    Regards
    Nick

    1. Off the top of my head Nick I suggest separating the claims, so look at 3lb claims and 7+ ratings drop then 5lb claims and 5+ ratings drop etc. Save them as separate systems, download to excel, combine and analyse.

    2. Hi Nick,
      Well there is a weight vs (LR) box (in V4 builder, on my screen that is column 1,11 down) and also an OR vs last race (4th col, 8 down)

      Would those help? I believe the former takes account of any claims – so can select say between 10lb and X lb lighter than last run. And maybe combine with an OR drop also- former could just be claim/class drop etc etc.

      And/or combine with the claiming jockey bits also.
      Josh

      1. Thanks guys. I will take a look later. I think when I was looking last night I thought the OR drop one referred to the specific ratings but looking at it again it actually refers to the drop amount. (although having a max drop 145 is a little OTT)

        1. Apprentices claims are an interesting subject
          3lb and 5lb claimers have by the rules had to ride a certain amount of winners
          to get their claims reduced so we know they must be at least competent.

          but they are only getting 3lbs from the top pros who have years of experience
          so unless they are future top 10 riders I would favour the pro if the horses
          were level on ability.

          5lb claimers are the middle bracket and they may or may not be worth their claim
          but the 7 and 10lb claiming riders are the ones that really interest me
          as they can be pretty good or rubbish with several wins or having their first ride.

          watching the races is the key as a good one is not hard to spot
          if you want to have a real example of a top pro against a competent jockey
          then watch the video of last nights race at Yarmouth

          in the final furlong Hayley Turner was perfectly balanced over the horses neck
          and won, the 2nd ridden by Sarah Brotherton had Sarah in a completely different position

          I would be bold enough to say if the Jockeys switched horses then The 2nd would have won.

          The 10lb claimers are riders attached to the stable of the horse they are riding for.

          If you spot a kid riding for a decent stable and you like his style then they are worth following as 10lbs is a big advantage.

          if you watch most poor riders or amateurs that are often standing much more straight legged in the saddle.

          Watch Hayley ride from last night and if you see a big claiming rider riding like that
          take note

          1. I generally like to stick to jockeys who have won at least once in the past 30 days when it comes to claimers. (or at least have gone close)

            Managed to get the system sorted. The weight one didn’t really work but managed to the use the other ones as suggested.

  5. ….Also Power Pivot in excel is fantastic for handling large amounts of data. Excel is too slow if you have lots of fancy formulas on large data sets, much better on 64bit but if you’ve got thousands of rows and calcs that recalculate when new data gets added it can still be a drag.

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