Members Daily Post: 17/07/17 (complete)

quals+ratings pointers+notes

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Ayr

3.00 –

Cool Run Girl (micro class) 11/1 UP 25/1 * hmm.. ‘interesting’ ride.. not touched at all with whip/hard ridden at any point,travelled ok into it and there was a gap there to try and go through. Drifted big time- one to be very very interested in soon, esp in C6 – can see her dotting up. May come on for run again,gaining experience etc. 

Danish Duke (micro distance) 10/1 UP

Dandyleekie (micro age) ES I3 9/1 UP

3.30 – Spes Nostra (micro class) I1 33/1 UP

 

Ffos Las

3.15 – Satchville Flyer (micro dist+age) ES H3 I3 4/1 UP

4.15 – Ocean Gale (all hncps) 8/1

5.15 – Kingstreet Lady (all hncp) H1 I1 G3 7/2 UP 9/2

 

Windsor

5.50 –

Dark Phantom (3yo+) 12/1 UP

Secret Soul (micro age) H3 I3 G3 7/2 UP 

7.20 – Super Julius (3yo+) H3 G3  9/2 UP 

7.50 –

Angel’s Quest (all hncps) I1 11/4 UP

Sayem (all hncps) H1 I3 G3  15/2 WON 5/1

Funky Footsteps (3yo+) G1 11/1

8.20 – Classic Villager (4yo+) 5/1 UP

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 30 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

‘Advised Strategies‘: Flat 2017 Read HERE>>>

Test Zone: July Trainer: Read HERE>>> | CD Jockeys: Read HERE>>>| Irish Angles: Read HERE>>>

Welcome Email/Note: READ HERE>>>

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/50,20p, -1.9) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/1111, +24.6)

No ‘tips’ today, but some notes to use/ignore as you please… there are three from the above set of qualifiers that look interesting to me… (these are my own subjective views,that you may find interesting/useless/disagree with etc!)

(as an aside… I did read that Tom Segal, Mr Pricewise, is on a losing run of 76. Gulp. Poor Bugger. That must be tough. I will write a post this week with any luck on odds/losing runs/% – as given his average odds I think he is due a run like that every now and then.)

Cool Run Girl.. i have deliberated this one for a time and will be a bit sick if she goes in. She is taking a walk in the market as I write so who knows. She caught the eye the last day when returning after a break and running with credit up the slosh over 5f at Hamilton. That day the place to be was the nearside rail where the ground seemed much quicker. To run as she did after 6 months off was decent I thought- and is one for the notebooks. Jardine will win races with her at some point. The positives are that she steps back up to 6f and races on decent  ground. Bar the first run of her life it’s the first time she gets 6f on Good or better – breeding suggests she may get further and being USA bred you’d have though the faster the ground the better. Those are the reasons for improvement. BUT, it was a weak C6 the last day and she is thrown into a strong C5 here. She is 20lb behind the fav on ratings and needs the top 3 in the market to all fluff their line/fail to build on decent runs LTO/and run way below their marks. Nothing is impossible in this game – I should just be focusing on the horse here and not the oppo- were she running in a C6 I’d have gone in. Maybe Jardine is going to get one more run in her, drop her back to the basement level, and ‘have it off’. This is only the 4th handicap of her life.

Dandyleekie runs for ES – i did note that he has a headgear switch that needs to work i think, he drops in class from LTO also.

Over to Windsor – Secret Soul… looks interesting. Long term readers will know my issues with horses near the top of the market- I do struggle to know when to go in on ‘shorties’ (which is anything under 4/1 for me,and I tend to focus on 6/1+) You have to be right a lot more at that end, which is tough, over time. Work to do there. Having said that 7/2,10/3 looks ok for this one’s chance I think – She drops 1f in trip, drops in class and has a very good pilot on board in the context of this race. (well, he is decent anyway). I can see why she is fav. The headgear combo may need to work again but this is a shocker of a race. 10/3 in a poor C6 with unpredictable animals has scared me off at that price but on paper i’d like to think she will go well. She will race prominently and be in the right place and the positives probably outweigh any concerns.

Finally – Sayem- well he is covered on strategy #2, which may not be as good as #1 or the Elite Squad, as yet- but I must admit that 8/1 looked to be a rather large price to my eyes. The win the last day was her first run over the distance and there will be more to come. Her speed figure is big in this, and the top two  (Funky Footsteps the other) are way ahead of the rest. It suggests that on Dr Peter May’s approach (the chap behind the Geegeez speed figs) their last race/performances may have been decent enough. I’ll be backing her at those odds. The jockey booking is a positive also, being 2/6,3p in flat turf handicaps. The top 3 all have the odd question albeit Stoute is flying now and you’d have to fear his. I’ll mention Funky Footsteps – the speed figure is interesting- she gets first time cheekpieces here – the trainer is only 1/39,3p with first time cheekpieces in handicaps- that was a concern – 3/64,10p all such runners.

I should mention Kingstreet Lady – seems to have a decent chance for #1 strategy to me- visor off which may not have helped LTO (not sure why they put it on based on prev start) Been in decent form since first win in C6,not drops down to that class having been running in some C5s. The trip is interesting- I think she stays 7f, or has looked to on a couple of occasions, and is worth a go back over it. Maybe both her and Secret Soul will win.

Anyway, those are some of my thoughts. GL whatever you back today.

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

4.15 Ffos Las – Think So UP

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

none.

 

**

 

Share on facebook
Facebook
Share on twitter
Twitter
Share on pinterest
Pinterest
Share on linkedin
LinkedIn
Share on telegram
Telegram

Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. A really poor days racing,and no Paddy flying the last fence,so im having a bet in the last at Wolverhampton Phalaborwa.Ed Vaughan has a respectable record of 18% with 3yo here for +22.75.Harry Bentley is 25% for +36 with same and combined 6/13.The 13/2 is not a great price though

  2. Hi Josh, just signed up. How often do you update the running totals for the “advised strategies” ?

    1. hi James – i’ll update them weekly… I did an update when I re opened last thursday, but will get into the habit of doing it regularly. I’ll update today. Those weekly updates are to the prices generally available as noted next to the horse. I need to update the jumps 10/1-25/1 strategy and will do that this week also.
      There are some bigger spreadsheets that I will post up this week also, that have every bet in section 1 recorded, and to BFSP. The ES quals are highlighted in those and monthly I should be able to note any returns to BFSP.

      You’re always welcome to give me gentle reminder to do X if you’re unhappy with anything etc. All polite nudging is welcome!
      Josh

  3. Hi Josh, I hear mentioned on racinguk channel a fair bit about 3yo’s having the upper hand against their elders in 3yo+ hcaps. i.e the weight for age allowance favours the 3yos. I understand it was tinkered with and changed slightly this season, but still not changed enough in many commentators opinions.
    I was wondering if you had looked at any systems around this angle? i dont have hrb. Maybe its too difficult to do as too many qualifiers, but could it be narrowed down to races where there are just 1 or 2 3yos in races of 8 or more runners say? not sure if there would be a filter for that…. Just a thought for a quiet monday

    1. Hi James,
      Yep there will be something with 3 year olds in 3yo+ handicaps – it isn’t something i have ever had a great interest in diving into but no doubt a gem here and there. I’ll add it to the list. I did read that they tend to do well over longer distances- assuming the weigh/or lack of, is more advantageous the further you do, or more of a disadvantage to older horses.
      Your filter ideas are interesting and there may be the odd trainer who excels. Leave it with me.
      Josh

  4. I know it’s a small sample size but that’s 3/5 for H1 G3 I3 I believe (I am out right now so cannot double check)

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.