Free Daily Post: 17/07/17 (complete)

3x horses of interest + some other snippets..

No system selections.

Horses of Interest…

Three that I thought looked worthy of closer inspection- a couple on the AW which is rarely a happy hunting ground for me, but you never know. Two are shorter prices than ideal for me but many of you are finer judges than I at that end and you may find the following of some use…

4.30 Ayr- Just Hiss – 8/1 … (now a NR!) 

Looked interesting EW from a pace angle – the only out and out front runner on recent runs he is drawn to attack from the front here. I suspect this is a weaker C2 than Saturday. He returns 2 days later here which is the question but some horses can thrive on a quick turnaround and you are simply guessing as to whether they will relish it or drop out the back of the tv. There are a couple in here with sexier profiles, inc the Varian horse but he has a ground question as there hasn’t been any rain- may not stop him of course. This one is also top rated on geeegeez speed figures. We shall see if he can lead all the way. 

6.40 Wolvs- Desert Rain – 10/3 … WON 3/1

I have highlighted Bin Suroor’s record at Wolvs with 1st time handicap starters before – 6/12,8 places. His yard is flying at the moment, 5/16,8 places in the last 14 days. This one returns after a break, drops back in trip and gets a 1st time visor – they may try to make all here, or in any case be up there. The jockey has ridden a winner for him and looks interesting enough.

7.10 Wolvs- Sevilla – 8/1…

Olly Murphy has had a blistering start to his training career and a case could be made to just back them all at the moment- He is 4/10,8 places in the last 14 days- I think that covers all his first runners as a trainer in his own right, having been assistant to Gordon Elliot. I believe Anabel Murphy is his mother?.. or a relation in any case and he is getting plenty from her. She may have been getting a few well handicapped so he could have a good start. Smart. In any case he is 3/9,7 places with those making their first start for him, having been trained elsewhere previously. The horse drops in class, into a claimer. He sticks with a jockey who knows the horse well. Just looks interesting. The market has been some guide with him although he did have a 16/1 winner at Market Rasen.

**

 

76 Losers In A Row….

I believe this is the current losing run of Tom Segal, Mr Pricewise. He is clearly going through a tough time. That puts any of my losing runs into perspective although i’ll hit one like that at some point. (had one of 26 on the ‘bet of the day’ test recently. Urgh)  I’ll write a post i think on this topic as it’s always good to refresh the betting brain on the relationship between average winning odd/strike rates/expected losing runs.

 

Ryan Moore is a genius…

 On Saturday I appeared to tweet something controversial- I thought his ride on Gustav Klimt was pure genius – one of the best rides of recent weeks. Many a punter on twitter thought is was a horrid ride and the horse got him out of trouble. I watched the race again and concluded this view was bollocks, in my humble opinion (which is often wrong!) No doubt he had the horse underneath him and he is clearly some talent but the ride was superb for me because…

Moore bounced him out and led for a time before others went past. Moore was then happy to just sit behind the leaders. There was a nice gap in front of him for most of the way. I noted how he was niggling him along in the mid part of the race- i concluded that the horse was just struggling a tad to hold his position over this fast 7f, down the hill. Now, Moore was keen to get him into a rhythm and race at an even tempo, to ensure there was enough in the tank for the finish. He ‘could’ have forced the horse forward and kept him at the front the whole way. But I think that would have been going a pace the horse was unhappy with and would have used up too much energy early on. Come the end of the race there is a chance he would then have run out of gas.

So, for me, that explains why the horse was in the position he was. I do not know what backers expected- him to blast out and make all? Well, on this track/the pace they went, he just couldn’t, or Moore,for good reason, didn’t want him to. I don’t think the horse looked happy until he hit the climb. All of that explains why he was sat just behind the pace.

The race then started to develop and through no fault of Moore’s, he was squeezed. Horses to the left hung right, horses to the right hung left. These horses were in front of him at the time. It was just unlucky. If they had all kept to a straight line then he probably finds a gap up the middle with ease and away he goes. He was stuck, with nowhere to go. He was snatched up sharply losing momentum and a good few lengths. Moore could not have predicted horses form the left and right running off a straight line, right into the space he would have wanted to push through.

At this moment he showed an unbelievable racing brain. Without hesitation he darted for the left rail, around runners. He got the horse back into a rhythm and got him home. That move won the race. The alternative was surely to try and go up the middle still, with the chance that his path could be blocked yet again , this time by horses coming back to him. So instead he thought he would go round any potential trouble. He also went on the strip of turf that may have been quickest, and thought racing against the rail on a track he had looked unhappy on, may also help. He made those decisions in no time at all. A second.

I think it was pure genius. I don’t think many other jockeys would have won on him this day. They also would have tracked the pace for reasons explained and would have had the misfortune of being squeezed. I doubt many would have dragged him to the rail with that speed and decisiveness. They may have given up. The horse looks to be crying out for a stiffer 7f on a more conventional track and will no doubt get 8f+. The Guineas awaits.

That was how I read the race anyway. Your view may well be different to that. But i think any shorty backers owe him one for that ride. Even if you think it was his fault he found trouble (and if you do i’d like to hear what the alternative was) you have to admire how he responded to the situation.

**

GL with any bets today,

Josh

 

 

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. 7.10 Wolverhampton 1mile 4 furlong classified claimer

    2 point win YASIR 7/1 with Paddy Power, William Hill and Betfred (15/2 with Stan James)

    Yasir is a 4 times course and Distance winner and in a very tight race on the ratings
    look decent value.

    He is rated 3lbs higher than the favourite Monologue and is more than twice the price and
    back over his favourite trip he will go very close if he runs to his mark.
    obviously at 9 he could be going backwards but he won this race last year and shrewd trainer Connor Dore
    looks like he has targeted the race again this year.
    last time out he ran over a mile which is way short of his best and it looks to me as if that was a prep race for today

    Loads of moderate horses in the race and if Yasir can still run to his mark of 58
    he will likely win

    Review
    Discovery lad ran an honest race but was beaten back into 2nd and the advice line is now 12 points down

  2. Josh you are spot on the ride Ryan Moore gave Gustav Klimt was out of the top drawer even my wife who likes racing but is hardly an expert said that it was a brilliant ride.He is a really special jockey and we should enjoy him while we can.

    1. Thanks John, I suspect many that took issue had lumped on and were breathing a sigh of relief, having nearly had to reach for the defibrillator ! All a game of opinions but I think it was a special ride. We sure should, I believe him and SDS are by far the best on various measures linked to odds/expected winners etc. Moore is the one you’d always want on a G1 horse for me. All class.

    1. I did not see the race but was on at 6/4 and so with a loser and non runner on the day was grateful for the efforts of the silent one!

      Another terrible Monday of racing but there is always another day. I am on the Amber Fort in the last at Wolves at 8/1.

  3. Josh
    Whoever believes that wasn’t the ride of the weekend must have been in the bar as it was simply a masterful piece of horsemanship. Most criticism of a jockeys ride come from those who have never even sat on a horse. If they had they would know they don’t turn on a sixpence and when they are doing 30mph plus things happen very very quickly and that’s where Ryan’s racing brain shone through.
    Still the old saying “you can please some of the people etc etc ….. still holds true.
    Keep up the good work mate.

    1. Cheers David… you wouldn’t believe the number of fired back to that tweet,took me a bit by surprise- well to an extent- I knew a few would bite and like a bit of friendly sparing! I may have had that view a few years back but I think I am getting better at ‘race reading’ and understand why horses are ridden as they are.
      They just couldn’t grasp why the horse was in the position he was before the trouble, which to me seemed straight forward enough. I still can’t believe how quickly he reacted there. Quite incredible.

  4. 17th July Windsor 5f Mdn
    4.25 Golden Salute
    3.75 Airshow, Expecting, Awesome Tank
    3.5
    3.25 Global Rose,
    3 Alaskan Bay
    2.75 Glamorous Rocket
    2 Summer Thunder
    1.75 Avenging Red, Mossketeer, Calvin’s Gal
    Preview – Looks a good race, Expecting was disappointing last time and drifted badly late on so unless he is well supported looks hard to go with.
    I am not at all sure that Airshow has enough substance to win a maiden and unless Expecting really looks the business I would hope Golden Salute looks ok.
    The Haggas filly Awesometank is, for this yard, a chep one at 25k. I have looked back through his 2yo Windsor winners to 2oo2 and have not found any. He sent Besharah here in 2015 to give her experience 2to before going to Ascot but generally he does not seem to target Windsor for debut wins or with better ones. As she does not seem to be getting much support I am hopeful she is a dud.
    Of the outsiders Gay Kelleway and Rae Guest are both capable of preparing one to win on debut so both Global Rose and Alaskan Bay respectively may have a better chance than their odds suggest.
    Basicall wide open, hope I can sort them out paddock side.

    Prior race notes
    Airshow – An ordinary runty little chap, still carrying some winter coat. Missed the break which did not help, stayed on but will always be size limited. Perhaps they can find a little race at Brighton or Bath soonish. 58
    Expecting – Not a dis-similar model to Buridan, possibly slightly more scope. Not as fit and ran out of puff as expected in the latter stages. 78 (over-rated and subsequently seen but not photographed 71)
    Hugh

  5. 17th July Windsor 5f Novice
    4.25
    3.75 Tip Two Win
    3.5
    3.25 Spring Romance
    3 Expelled
    2.75 Running Cloud, Fiery Breath, Rustang, Cruel Clever Cat
    1.25 Zyzzyva
    Preview – Tip Two Win comes out top but is not getting any support and looks unlikely to as the RP says Teal does not get fto winners. He has only had 6 winners since 2009 but 2 of these have been fto so a 33% strike rate.
    Sire and jockey are ok, draw fairly immaterial. I’m not saying he is a likely winner, but it is not a strong race and may be worth a second look unless he drifts further than say 14’s.
    Hugh

    1. I think that deserves a BOOOMMM!!! Wallop. Well done. You keep chipping away, eventually you get rewarded!Never be put off a drift,if you’ve got sound reasoning, hope you had a go! I had a massive £2.50 EW for interest. Pays for some beers.

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