MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
1.45 South – Aces Over Eights
3.50 Strat – Sage Monkey
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Nothing more today.
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Saturday… as I write at 7.30 pm it is turning into one of those ‘nearly days’- plenty of placed horses, a few close seconds, at decent prices. There was one 7/1 winner mentioned when discussing a race at Newmarket. Polybius would have won at 12s with a clear run to lift the mood. The stats also found the 4th in that. The shortlist of 5 for the Bunbury Cup found the 20/1 winner- I talked myself out of him. Not sure why. Annoying. And that isn’t the first time I have done that but that is part of the approach. I know a couple of you have banged the ‘just back all the shortlisted runners’ drum. I still haven’t taken note! Those days are both reassuring and bloody frustrating. Close on a couple of occasions to a profitable day. Instead I am staring down a barrel. Always tomorrow and two darts left to fire as I write- fingers crossed.
Another well done to Chris. Both of our shortlists found similar horses in the 2.10 and the Bunbury Cup. He didn’t over think the latter! But he also chipped in with a 10/1 winner in an earlier race at York, as well as the John Smith’s winner. There may have been more, I lose count some days! He has the trends analysis down to perfection at the moment and long may it continue – don’t you go posting on any other blog now 🙂  A very good day indeed.
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On we march.
(i’m off to have a beer or eight with some friends in Liverpool. I need a drink)
Josh
3 Responses
4.20 Stratford
Only 84 runners over last 9 years to look through.
Last run, 1st/2nd: 0/35
Last run, placed: 1/40
Distance places, 1 or more: 0/32
Penultimate run, class 4 or lower: 1/39
Slightly confusing looking stats which most likely down to such a small sample size – don’t think I’ve ever looked at a race with less than 10 years data. Or possibly (hopefully!) it could be indicative of progressive horses not being favoured here.
Two that come out the other side are the two outsiders: Father Edward(12/1) and Vikekhal (20/1).
Several miss out by just one with Play the Ace (9/2 fav) not having any ticks at all.
🙂
Hi Chris
Another good effort again today. Your approach reminds me of a, now defunct, service called Portfolio Trends where a lot of their trends/stats would be very alternative.
Apart from your first couple of posts i note you have since not used Official Ratings and Weight carried. You also make no reference to the Draw. Is this because there has been nothing significant or because most Trends analysis refer to them and you’ve found they are really not needed?
Regards
Eric
Hi Eric
With regards to the weights and ratings I am tending to be very hesitant in crossing horses out just because of those factors, especially on the flat. Similarly, with the draw I place little emphasis on it in relation to the trends as a lot of it depends on where the pace of the particular race is etc. However, if there was something significant I would put it up as I know some people may like to combine it with their form reading.