Plenty going on today.. micros, guest preview, some test tips/previews of two big handicaps and 6 bets of the day from my Members’ post. Busy busy busy. Fun stakes advised. These days are tough and usually about survival. But you and I can never resist getting stuck in- well I can’t anyway. Set yourself a budget and ignore at will! Good luck with any bets…
Fahey Nurseries (test) (any odds)
5.15 York- Jedi Master / The Right Choice
GUEST RACE PREVIEW: John Smith’s Cup… READ HERE>>> (from some tipping experts)
2.10 Ascot – (test.. for context I back my jumps/3m+ ‘tips’ to £20 per point,these will get £2.50,£5 on nose…work to do with these flat handicaps)
Polybius – 1 point win – 12/1 2nd – painful! would have won for clear run,that’s sprints for you. bugger
Lexington Abbey- 1 point win 14/1 4th 16/1
Yalta – 1 point win – 16/1
The first two hit the stats below and a case can be made. Polybius may not have the pace for this or they may not go quick enough- but he ran well the last day and those questions are unknowns, esp the trip. Given the stats/his price/he’s in form/like the track, i will have a go. Lexington A could race more prominently up the nearside and if there is a lack of pace you won’t want to be too far back. He is consistent and went close in this race last year.
Yalta- more of a stab but he is a qualifier on my MJ July angle and when looking at the race/pace set up in geegeez I couldn’t help but note his massive speed figure- much the best. I suspect that back over 5f they are just going to go for it from the low draw- he should lead for quite a way and that may be enough. What pace there is does seem to be low which makes this interesting. They may all come arrow like formation up the middle. He takes a big drop in class here from Group company and ran well two starts back. He may simply not be good enough for those races or he has a problem in not finishing off his races. But he does look a 5f horse. I also remember tipping a 40/1 winner for MJ on his straight course a couple years back in one of the handicaps near the back end of the season- the pin lands on the right one every now and then. That one also made all. Those winners tend to stick in the mind. He may just be out of form but there is enough there for interest at 16/1
3.25 Newm (test!)
Von Blucher – 1 point EW – 40/1 (pp/bv/WH/others.. PP 5 places but 1/5 odds) UP 6th or so,may have nabbed place if not coming near side which seems to be dead,not sure why didn’t try going other way. Misery compounded by the 20/1>12/1 winner being on the shortlist, which is an indication of how this day is going! Close, but not close enough.
Oh well he is on my stats shortlist and he is 40/1 – i couldn’t help myself for a dabble. He may run no sort of race here and needs to do better than LTO- but that was after more than a month off and second run after a break. It is possible he may appreciate the drop to 7f more and ran some solid races for Johnny G. I’m sure Menzies will find races to win with him. He ran like a non stayer a bit the last day but then has won over 8f before so he may just be out of sorts. Albeit his best runs have been in strongly run 7f races. PACE- is a head scratcher here as it is mainly low- those in the middle to high drawn may be marooned but I don’t know what they will end up doing. No doubt one of the more lightly raced/in form horses near the top of the market will win but if this one can grab a place it will pay more than backing some of those to win. And you never know!
I didn’t really like any of the others on my stats shortlist for one reason or another. The winner may be lurking there.
I have some stats/trends for the 2.10 Ascot and The Bunbury Cup, albeit Chris seems to be doing well in this sphere at the moment! …
Stats of interest… (10 runnings, 10/140,35 places)
- 9/10, 12/1 or shorter SP (1/63,7p 14/1+)
- 9/10 running at same or lower class from last time out (LTO) (up in class 1/37,7p)
- Top Weights: 0/12,1p
- Bottom Weights (inc joints): 3/12,4p, +9
- 10/10 had 0-1 runs over Course And Distance (CD) (2+, 0/49,10p)
- 9/10 2-5 handicap wins (1/60,11p outside this)
- 10/10 had 3+ career wins (0-2, 0/23,4p)
- OR 101+, 0/19,4p
- Last Win… Not in a Class 2 (1/59,13p had last win in C2)
- Ran in C3 or lower LTO: 1/37,7p
- 9/10 Top 7 LTO (8th or lower 1/56,11p)
Shortlist: if you looked at 0-1 CD runs, 2-5 hncp wins, last win not C2.. (those three stats combine are 8/29,11p last 10 years, +45 BFSP) leaves you…
Edward Lewis (OR 101+ a neg) , Polybius , Lexington Abbey, Son of Africa (12/1< a pos,needs to be backed,moving up in class a neg), Doctor Sardonicus (price,and moving up in class)
Stats of interest (20 years and then 10.. 10/174)
- 20/20 ran 8-60 days ago
- 20/20 had 2-6 runs this season
- 10/10 aged 6 or younger
- 9/10 running at same or drop in distance from LTO (Up, 1/48,13p)
- 8/10 OR 99 or less (100+ 2/69,14p, 106+ 0/13,1p)
- 10/10 , 0-1 CD runs
- 10/10, 4+ handicap runs
- 0 handicap wins: 0/23,0p
- 0 Dist wins: 1/44,10p
- 0-2 places in handicaps: 0/36,5p
- 7+ places over the distance (7f) 0/33,5p (places includes wins)
- 8/10 last win was over 7f (8/100) (2/72,16p last won over a diff dist)
- Ran 31-45 days ago: 3/9, 4 places, +31
- Richard Fahey: 3/13,6p, +29
Shortlist: 7 stats of interest… ran 8-60 days,2-6 runs season,6 or younger,0-1 CD runs,4+ hncp runs,1+ hncp wins,0-6 places over 7f. That leaves 10/76,24p,+67 BFSP the last 10 years.
This year that little lot leaves 6 of interest: Gossiping / Above the Rest WON 20/1>12/1, bugger / Donncha / Kadrizzi /
Raising Sand / Von Blucher
Just a word on the 2.15 Newmarket – I backed Cheval Blanche UP LTO at Ascot thinking she might make all at a price. I don’t think she stays 8f on what we have now seen. She led for a way. She is drawn low today and back over 7f. This jockey also gets on really well with her and Bell is in form. I hope they bag the rail and try to dictate from the front. I may have a nibble. Inshirahh WON 7/1 caught the eye LTO also for one reason or another albeit this is a jump in class. One I will be watching closely.
Finally! Blimey it’s a busy day…but where is the fun in sitting on the sidelines, much fun to be had for small stakes…
Below are my ‘bets of the day’ from my Members’ Club. I picked a 9/1 winner yesterday that was well backed. No doubt this is putting the mockers on the lot but I have a quiet confidence that some of them may win (they all won’t, obviously) and you may enjoy the read…
FROM THE MEMBERS’ POST>>>>
Bet of The Day… (test) (Flat: 6/44,18p, +4.1) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/105, +30.6)
Strap yourselves in.. at least yesterday’s winner paid for what follows… the quoted price is available with at least 2x+ big bookies at time of posting and as always suggest you have a browse of Oddschecker…
2.40 Ascot – Burguillos– 1 point win – 9/2
5.35 Ascot – Esprit De Corps – 1 point win – 7/1
3.05 York – Victory Bond 8/1 | UAE Prince 10/1 – both 1 point win each
7.50 Salisbury – Zoffanist – 1 point win – 12/1 (that is going quick, 10s in plenty of places..get on!)
8.50 Salisbury – Prosper – 1 point win – 7/1
A busy day ahead and with any luck one or two of these go in… a general point… my approach with the flat ‘starting points’ from section one, when attacking a race cold (ie outside of the systematic strategies as discussed.. ‘ES’ looking the most exciting of those, double/treble top rated looking decent also) is to generally focus on the unexposed horses and whether they are ‘doing something different’ from recent runs, as a reason for why they may show improved form, or build on recent form. My eyes head straight for those in the 6/1 range (generally,more on 2.40 Ascot in a moment!). When a horse is doing something different and/or is lightly raced, you always have hope. Add in some trainer form, some supporting stats (trainer/jockey,first time handicaps,record moving horses up in distance ete etc) and you can find yourself some tasty winners. I am slowly getting there with my flat picks and had a few of those placed horses got there a stride sooner that profit figure would look a bit better. Anyway…
Burguillos… danger danger… he is under 6/1 and long suffering readers know that I can struggle at this end of the market. You just have to be right a lot of the time the shorter you go- and being right is hard. Making profit at that end is hard, and it isn’t as much fun. Cheering home 9/2 winners is still fun, not so much 9/4, 5/4 etc. You just won’t win long term at that sharp end in my opinion. Well, I won’t anyway. This horse… well he is lightly raced and I suppose he isn’t doing anything different- but I couldn’t get away from the form of his two most recent runs- it is very solid and has produced a few winners. Indeed 2 starts ago he split two subsequent winners, Lord Yeats won a listed race at Newmarket and Varian’s hacked up in a C3. He looks sure to run his race and this looks easier than those assignments. Trainer/jockey are 2/16,8p on the flat, Harley knows the horse, and he is riding well at the moment – an in form confident jockey. IF he repeats his recent runs he should go close here. He is top rated Geegeez which caught the eye also. There is a Burrows horse to worry about but that length of break would concern me- a question anyway. Unless they have tinkered with his wind etc but he faces a hardly battler here and I am rarely put off a bet by others in the race- this is about whether I can make a case for anything in section 1, and if I like the price.
Esprit De Corps – Charlton’s are going ok and this one runs in an all age handicap. He is 3lb off top rated on ratings but carries 11lb less. He is unexposed and the three in front of him in that Ponty race have all won since. A decent little contest for the track. He is up in trip and down in class! – that’s the ‘doing something different’ boxes ticked and reasons why he could do better- as well as being open to progression still. He runs as if 7f will suit and will have developed since he tried it in a maiden. We have that man Harley again, and he is 3/9,5p when riding for Charlton on the turf. Decent. 13/2 seemed a fair price as he could take a step forward here. I couldn’t leave him given the profile, class drop, distance move.
Victory Bond and UAE Prince- well I nearly dodged these two- but for the illogical reason of -‘oh this race looks too hard,let’s leave it’- but the horses tick my boxes. They are both lightly raced and both run for trainers at the top of their game. Light rain as just starting in York and these two won’t mind if it goes GS- not on paper anyway. And that poses a question for Noseda’s horse. Both trainers have won this race in recent years and the days break suggests this has been a plan. They may have wanted to protect their marks and I believe the latter may have had the dreaded ‘cut’. Poor bugger. They both just have the ‘could be anythings’ about them. The former has course form and steps back up in trip which should suit, won his maiden over 10f. The latter drops in trip and in class. He looks to have ability and they clearly feel he could concentrate more. Their prices allow a play. The trainers are in flying form and these two will run above these marks at some point.
Zoffanist – the first time blinkers are the ‘way in’ and a reason he ‘could’ improve. He is top rated on geegeez and there isn’t loads of pace on in here- Simcock’s was a reluctant leader the last day, more pulling himself to the front. I hope these spark him up, but not too much, and they send him to the front and try and make all. That’s what I would do. The trainer has an ok record with 1st time blinkers- i just don’t like seeing a really poor record- 14/122,31p, +16 is ok with such types. This is only the horse’s third handicap start and he ran ok to a point LTO. There should be more to come at some point if/when they find the key. Finally, the trainer is in form, 2/9,3p in the last 14 days. At a double figure price I had to have a go.
Prosper- well god help us (me) if we get to this stage in proceedings needing a winner- Varian can do no wrong at the moment and this one also gets 1st time blinkers. He drops in class and moves back up in trip. Varian has a good record with first time blinkers also- I think Chris posted such a comment a couple days back in the free posts. There are 3/4 front runners in here and with any luck he sits just behind them and sweeps past in the final furlong. Again he is running in an all age handicap – he is 2lb off top weight on ratings but carries 12lb less. Trainer/jockey are 1/1 at the track and i have no concerns on that front, his stats are decent enough. He is in my price range and there is enough there to have a dart.
If you follow me in do start small- much fun can be had with £2.50 bets – indeed such stakes on the ES quals, Bet of Day, and the double/treble top rated winners yesterday won 15.5 points– that’s 3 months subs for £2.50 bets- super. Of course I may give some back today but you get the point. Plenty of time to build up the betting bank. No need to bet big in this game to have fun and you don’t have £30-40 per months subs to worry about. 🙂 I am a bit better over jumps as the stats suggest and that is my main passion, but the flat is doing ok and the ‘tips’ have run consistently enough for me to have faith in the long run. Hopefully a couple above can run well. With a 15% win SR there will be bumps in the road though. GL!
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