Free Daily Post: 15/07/17 (complete)

complete, plenty to read through…


Plenty going on today.. micros, guest preview, some test tips/previews of two big handicaps and 6 bets of the day from my Members’ post. Busy busy busy. Fun stakes advised. These days are tough and usually about survival. But you and I can never resist getting stuck in- well I can’t anyway. Set yourself a budget and ignore at will! Good luck with any bets…






Fahey Nurseries (test) (any odds)

5.15 York- Jedi Master / The Right Choice




GUEST RACE PREVIEW: John Smith’s Cup… READ HERE>>> (from some tipping experts)




2.10 Ascot –  (test.. for context I back my jumps/3m+ ‘tips’ to £20 per point,these will get £2.50,£5 on nose…work to do with these flat handicaps) 

Polybius – 1 point win – 12/1 2nd – painful! would have won for clear run,that’s sprints for you. bugger

Lexington Abbey- 1 point win 14/1 4th 16/1

Yalta – 1 point win – 16/1

The first two hit the stats below and a case can be made. Polybius may not have the pace for this or they may not go quick enough- but he ran well the last day and those questions are unknowns, esp the trip. Given the stats/his price/he’s in form/like the track, i will have a go. Lexington A could race more prominently up the nearside and if there is a lack of pace you won’t want to be too far back. He is consistent and went close in this race last year.

Yalta- more of a stab but he is a qualifier on my MJ July angle and when looking at the race/pace set up in geegeez I couldn’t help but note his massive speed figure- much the best. I suspect that back over 5f they are just going to go for it from the low draw- he should lead for quite a way and that may be enough. What pace there is does seem to be low which makes this interesting. They may all come arrow like formation up the middle. He takes a big drop in class here from Group company and ran well two starts back. He may simply not be good enough for those races or he has a problem in not finishing off his races. But he does look a 5f horse. I also remember tipping a 40/1 winner for MJ on his straight course a couple years back in one of the handicaps near the back end of the season- the pin lands on the right one every now and then. That one also made all. Those winners tend to stick in the mind. He may just be out of form but there is enough there for interest at 16/1


3.25 Newm (test!)

Von Blucher – 1 point EW – 40/1 (pp/bv/WH/others.. PP 5 places but 1/5 odds) UP 6th or so,may have nabbed place if not coming near side which seems to be dead,not sure why didn’t try going other way. Misery compounded by the 20/1>12/1 winner being on the shortlist, which is an indication of how this day is going! Close, but not close enough. 

Oh well he is on my stats shortlist and he is 40/1 – i couldn’t help myself for a dabble. He may run no sort of race here and needs to do better than LTO- but that was after more than a month off and second run after a break. It is possible he may appreciate the drop to 7f more and ran some solid races for Johnny G. I’m sure Menzies will find races to win with him. He ran like a non stayer a bit the last day but then has won over 8f before so he may just be out of sorts. Albeit his best runs have been in strongly run 7f races. PACE- is a head scratcher here as it is mainly low- those in the middle to high drawn may be marooned but I don’t know what they will end up doing. No doubt one of the more lightly raced/in form horses near the top of the market will win but if this one can grab a place it will pay more than backing some of those to win. And you never know!

I didn’t really like any of the others on my stats shortlist for one reason or another. The winner may be lurking there.


I have some stats/trends for the 2.10 Ascot and The Bunbury Cup, albeit Chris seems to be doing well in this sphere at the moment! …

2.10 Ascot 

Stats of interest… (10 runnings, 10/140,35 places) 

  • 9/10, 12/1 or shorter SP (1/63,7p 14/1+)
  • 9/10 running at same or lower class from last time out (LTO) (up in class 1/37,7p)
  • Weight
    • Top Weights: 0/12,1p
    • Bottom Weights (inc joints): 3/12,4p, +9
  • 10/10 had 0-1 runs over Course And Distance (CD) (2+, 0/49,10p)
  • 9/10 2-5 handicap wins (1/60,11p outside this)
  • 10/10 had 3+ career wins (0-2, 0/23,4p)
  • OR 101+, 0/19,4p
  • Last Win… Not in a Class 2 (1/59,13p had last win in C2)
  • Ran in C3 or lower LTO: 1/37,7p
  • 9/10 Top 7 LTO (8th or lower 1/56,11p)


Shortlist: if you looked at 0-1 CD runs, 2-5 hncp wins, last win not C2.. (those three stats combine are 8/29,11p last 10 years, +45 BFSP) leaves you…

Edward Lewis (OR 101+ a neg) , Polybius , Lexington Abbey, Son of Africa (12/1< a pos,needs to be backed,moving up in class a neg), Doctor Sardonicus (price,and moving up in class)



3.25 Newmarket 

Stats of interest (20 years and then 10.. 10/174) 

  • 20/20 ran 8-60 days ago
  • 20/20 had 2-6 runs this season
  • 10/10 aged 6 or younger
  • 9/10 running at same or drop in distance from LTO (Up, 1/48,13p)
  • 8/10 OR 99 or less (100+ 2/69,14p, 106+ 0/13,1p)
  • 10/10 , 0-1 CD runs
  • 10/10,  4+ handicap runs
  • 0 handicap wins: 0/23,0p
  • 0 Dist wins: 1/44,10p
  • 0-2 places in handicaps: 0/36,5p
  • 7+ places over the distance (7f) 0/33,5p (places includes wins)
  • 8/10 last win was over 7f (8/100) (2/72,16p last won over a diff dist)
  • Ran 31-45 days ago: 3/9, 4 places, +31
  • Richard Fahey: 3/13,6p, +29

Shortlist: 7 stats of interest… ran 8-60 days,2-6 runs season,6 or younger,0-1 CD runs,4+ hncp runs,1+ hncp wins,0-6 places over 7f. That leaves 10/76,24p,+67 BFSP the last 10 years.

This year that little lot leaves 6 of interest: Gossiping / Above the Rest WON 20/1>12/1, bugger / Donncha / Kadrizzi / Raising Sand / Von Blucher 



What Next…

Just a word on the 2.15 Newmarket – I backed Cheval Blanche UP LTO at Ascot thinking she might make all at a price. I don’t think she stays 8f on what we have now seen. She led for a way. She is drawn low today and back over 7f. This jockey also gets on really well with her and Bell is in form. I hope they bag the rail and try to dictate from the front. I may have a nibble. Inshirahh WON 7/1 caught the eye LTO also for one reason or another albeit this is a jump in class. One I will be watching closely.

Finally! Blimey it’s a busy day…but where is the fun in sitting on the sidelines, much fun to be had for small stakes…

Below are my ‘bets of the day’ from my Members’ Club. I picked a 9/1 winner yesterday that was well backed. No doubt this is putting the mockers on the lot but I have a quiet confidence that some of them may win (they all won’t, obviously) and you may enjoy the read…




Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 6/44,18p, +4.1) (Jumps: 9/61, +26.5) (total: 15/105, +30.6)

Strap yourselves in.. at least yesterday’s winner paid for what follows… the quoted price is available with at least 2x+ big bookies at time of posting and as always suggest you have a browse of Oddschecker…


2.40 Ascot – Burguillos– 1 point win – 9/2

5.35 Ascot – Esprit De Corps – 1 point win – 7/1

3.05 York – Victory Bond 8/1  | UAE Prince 10/1  – both 1 point win each

7.50 Salisbury – Zoffanist – 1 point win – 12/1 (that is going quick, 10s in plenty of places..get on!)

8.50 Salisbury – Prosper – 1 point win – 7/1


A busy day ahead and with any luck one or two of these go in… a general point… my approach with the flat ‘starting points’ from section one, when attacking a race cold (ie outside of the systematic strategies as discussed.. ‘ES’ looking the most exciting of those, double/treble top rated looking decent also) is to generally focus on the unexposed horses and whether they are ‘doing something different’ from recent runs, as a reason for why they may show improved form, or build on recent form. My eyes head straight for those in the 6/1 range (generally,more on 2.40 Ascot in a moment!). When a horse is doing something different and/or is lightly raced, you always have hope. Add in some trainer form, some supporting stats (trainer/jockey,first time handicaps,record moving horses up in distance ete etc) and you can find yourself some tasty winners. I am slowly getting there with my flat picks and had a few of those placed horses got there a stride sooner that profit figure would look a bit better. Anyway…

Burguillos… danger danger… he is under 6/1 and long suffering readers know that I can struggle at this end of the market. You just have to be right a lot of the time the shorter you go- and being right is hard. Making profit at that end is hard, and it isn’t as much fun. Cheering home 9/2 winners is still fun, not so much 9/4, 5/4 etc. You just won’t win long term at that sharp end in my opinion. Well, I won’t anyway. This horse… well he is lightly raced and I suppose he isn’t doing anything different- but I couldn’t get away from the form of his two most recent runs- it is very solid and has produced a few winners. Indeed 2 starts ago he split two subsequent winners, Lord Yeats won a listed race at Newmarket and Varian’s hacked up in a C3. He looks sure to run his race and this looks easier than those assignments. Trainer/jockey are 2/16,8p on the flat, Harley knows the horse, and he is riding well at the moment  – an in form confident jockey. IF he repeats his recent runs he should go close here. He is top rated Geegeez which caught the eye also. There is a Burrows horse to worry about but that length of break would concern me- a question anyway. Unless they have tinkered with his wind etc but he faces a hardly battler here and I am rarely put off a bet by others in the race- this is about whether I can make a case for anything in section 1, and if I like the price.

Esprit De Corps – Charlton’s are going ok and this one runs in an all age handicap. He is 3lb off top rated on ratings but carries 11lb less. He is unexposed and the three in front of him in that Ponty race have all won since. A decent little contest for the track. He is up in trip and down in class! – that’s the ‘doing something different’ boxes ticked and reasons why he could do better- as well as being open to progression still. He runs as if 7f will suit and will have developed since he tried it in a maiden. We have that man Harley again, and he is 3/9,5p when riding for Charlton on the turf. Decent. 13/2 seemed a fair price as he could take a step forward here. I couldn’t leave him given the profile, class drop, distance move.

Victory Bond and UAE Prince- well I nearly dodged these two- but for the illogical reason of -‘oh this race looks too hard,let’s leave it’- but the horses tick my boxes. They are both lightly raced and both run for trainers at the top of their game. Light rain as just starting in York and these two won’t mind if it goes GS- not on paper anyway. And that poses a question for Noseda’s horse. Both trainers have won this race in recent years and the days break suggests this has been a plan. They may have wanted to protect their marks and I believe the latter may have had the dreaded ‘cut’. Poor bugger. They both just have the ‘could be anythings’ about them. The former has course form and steps back up in trip which should suit, won his maiden over 10f. The latter drops in trip and in class. He looks to have ability and they clearly feel he could concentrate more. Their prices allow a play. The trainers are in flying form and these two will run above these marks at some point.

Zoffanist – the first time blinkers are the ‘way in’ and a reason he ‘could’ improve. He is top rated on geegeez and there isn’t loads of pace on in here- Simcock’s was a reluctant leader the last day, more pulling himself to the front. I hope these spark him up, but not too much, and they send him to the front and try and make all. That’s what I would do. The trainer has an ok record with 1st time blinkers- i just don’t like seeing a really poor record- 14/122,31p, +16 is ok with such types. This is only the horse’s third handicap start and he ran ok to a point LTO. There should be more to come at some point if/when they find the key. Finally, the trainer is in form, 2/9,3p in the last 14 days. At a double figure price I had to have a go.

Prosper- well god help us (me) if we get to this stage in proceedings needing a winner- Varian can do no wrong at the moment and this one also gets 1st time blinkers. He drops in class and moves back up in trip. Varian has a good record with first time blinkers also- I think Chris posted such a comment a couple days back in the free posts. There are 3/4 front runners in here and with any luck he sits just behind them and sweeps past in the final furlong. Again he is running in an all age handicap – he is 2lb off top weight on ratings but carries 12lb less. Trainer/jockey are 1/1 at the track and i have no concerns on that front, his stats are decent enough. He is in my price range and there is enough there to have a dart.

If you follow me in do start small- much fun can be had with £2.50 bets – indeed such stakes on the ES quals, Bet of Day, and the double/treble top rated winners yesterday won 15.5 points– that’s 3 months subs for £2.50 bets- super. Of course I may give some back today but you get the point. Plenty of time to build up the betting bank. No need to bet big in this game to have fun and you don’t have £30-40 per months subs to worry about. 🙂 I am a bit better over jumps as the stats suggest and that is my main passion, but the flat is doing ok and the ‘tips’ have run consistently enough for me to have faith in the long run. Hopefully a couple above can run well. With a 15% win SR there will be bumps in the road though. GL! 



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

31 Responses

  1. 1.55 York
    12 years – 174 runners

    NO place in last 2 runs: 1/60
    Last run prizemoney, >17k: 1/52
    Last run, NO top 6: 0/59
    Last run, >25 day: 0/39

    I think it leaves us with three:
    Chiefofchiefs (10/1), Just Hiss (12/1) and Twin Appeal (20/1)


  2. Three for me tomorrow. Firstly in the 14:10 at Ascot I think Yalta looks overpriced. Steps down in handicap company after racing in Graded company most of his career. His front running style will suit and he has by far the best speed rating here. Dane O’Neill has a good record when riding for Johnston including 2 wins and 2 2nds from 8 handicap runs on the flat this year. I tend to agree with the guys at S2PA that Dark Red looks a ridiculous price in the 15:05 at York. Ran a huge race 2 starts ago running all alone on the opposite side to most of the field so did very well to finish 4th. He ran well on his only start over course and distance behind Scarlet Dragon and gets a massive swing with that one (which seems to have been tipped by everyone). The booking of Paul Mulrennan for his first start of the year in a handicap over the flat for Ed Dunlop is eye-catching considering he won on 2 of his last 4 starts for the trainer in 2016. He gets a nice draw and wont mind good or soft ground. Finally I keeping faith with the Tin Man in the 16:35 at Newmarket. Whilst Limato may improve I think he was beaten fair and square LTO and whilst both the 3 year olds looked impressive they’ve yet to face hardened Grade 1 sprinters. Barring his debut he has only been once on good ground or faster and that was probably due to a terrible draw at York. He is one of only 2 multiple grade 1 winners in the field and I think 8/1 is doing his chances an injustice and he should be at least a similar price to Limato and probably warrants being 2nd favourite.

    1. Decided to add Mutawathea in the Burbury Cup (Newmarket 15:25). Keeps on running well in these big field handicaps over the last couple of seasons and was 3rd in this last year off effectively 8lbs higher if you take today’s jockey claim into account. Crisford is very much in form with 3 winners and 6 places from his 12 runners in the past week and he has a good record here (2/6, 3p in the past 5 years handicaps). His draw is fine and should be in the mix once again.

    2. Agree re Yalta Nick now that he is down into handicaps from the group races. Nice drop in the weights.

  3. 2.10 Ascot
    10 runners – 140

    Last run, NO top 7: 1/56
    Season runs, NOT 2-4: 1/62
    Handicap wins, NOT 2-5: 1/60
    Last run, class 3 or lower: 1/37
    Last win , class 2 : 1/59

    Understandably, a bit of an overlap with Josh’s post.

    I’ve ended up with Polybius (12/1) and Lexington Abbey (14/1) as ticking all the boxes.
    Edward Lewis and Doctor Sardonicus have also been very close – a big positive for Doctor Sardonicus (25/1) could be that those with their most recent win on the AW are 5/26 and 3/13 in the last 5 years.


  4. 2.50 Newmarket

    10 winners – 118 runners

    Last three runs, NO win: 1/34
    Last run 7f: 0/22

    Not thrown up an awful lot here.
    I think the top 3 in the market all pass the above as well as The Statesman who is 20/1.


  5. 3.25 Newmarket

    364 runners – 20 years
    Last run, NOT 8-60 days: 0/44
    Season runs, NOT 2-6: 0/58
    7f places, 1: 0/64

    174 runners – 10 runners
    Age, not 4-6: 0/32,3p
    Runs over CD, NOT 0-1: 0/31
    Handicap places, <3: 0/36
    Last race, <7f: 1/48
    Last win, <7f: 1/40

    I think applying the above leaves Above The Rest (20/1), Donncha (25/1) and Withernsea (33/1).


    1. Think I’ve left out Von Blucher (40/1) for mistakenly thinking he’s had 2 CD runs – he has had 2 runs at Newmarket over 7f but they’ve been on the 2 different courses so shouldn’t have chalked him off!

    2. I can’t keep repeating….but simply the best , as the song goes…
      Well done Chris.

      Cheers…Tony Mc.

  6. (copied over from yesterday)

    3.05 York John Smiths Cup (Saturday)

    376 – 20 years
    Older than 5: 1/101
    Last run at 1m3f or further: 0/82
    Last win >1m2f: 1/86
    Ran further than 1m4f: 1/88

    178 – 10
    Last run, NO top 7: 1/50
    Season runs, NOT 2-4: 0/53
    Last two runs, NO place: 1/54
    Class 2 or higher wins, >1: 1/45

    I think Ballet Concerto (9/1) is the only passing all the trends with UAE Prince (12/1) the only other one passing all the 10 year trends.

    Few that missed out by just one trend include Snoano and Victory Bond for the 20 years and Central Square, Majeed, Sixties Groove in the 10 years.


    1. Chris,
      You are a superb tipster!!
      I backed Ballet Concerto but won’t touch Atzeni with a barge pole again after he cost me a huge bet at Pontefract last Tuesday.
      Like an IDIOT I went off Above The Rest as no claimer has ever won the race, I believe.
      Keep the tips coming.
      It’s fantastic.

      1. I’ve just put a hat on so I can take it off to you Mr. Baxendale. Didn’t back any or oppose any apart from backing Tabarrak in the 3:25, but really excellent work Sir!!

    2. lol… i went against you in this Chris…..and their still running [o ye of little faith]….
      Once again terrific.

      Tony Mc.

    3. Great call on Ballet Concerto in the John Smiths Chris B – just beat my main hope big Country but with you other superb tips today VERY WELL DONE

  7. Some blessed relief yesterday with Tangled. One of my horses to follow goes in the Superlative. Maksab, looks overfaced like Cosmopolitan queen yesterday but possibly worth a bit e/w at 50/1

    15th July Newmarket 7f Superlative
    4.25 Finniston Farm, Gustav Klimt, Maksab, Zaman
    3.75 Aqabah, Etefaaq, Nebo
    2.25 Bullington Bandit
    1.75 Zaaki
    Preview – I shan’t be going today so with Gustav K going for Ballydoyle probably best left alone but I really liked Aqabah in The Coventry and the extra furlong should be of help.
    Maksab is one of my horses to follow albeit I didn’t think he would be racing at this level. He appeared to make heavy weather of his win in a 4 horse race at Leicester but the ground looked very odd that day as if loose on top of g/f. Might do a combo exact/trifecta Gustav K, Aqabah and Maksab.

    Prior race notes
    Maksab – Is this Mick Channon’s Jallota for the 2017 season? Lower medium, green, 90% fit, despite this ran a good race out wide finishing off well. Given a really nice intro by SDS and could easily leave this form way behind nto. 81
    Aqabah – Tall and scopey, still a bit green. More to come. 95
    Nebo – One of the smallest in the field, possibly top end of small or just into bottom of medium. Looked well but not outstanding. Well-made neat package but hard to see him as group potential. Interesting to see how he develops. A very suspect 87
    Nebo – As suspected size is the problem here, a bit close coupled. 85
    Bullington Bandit – Big, lumpy brute, dismissed as ugly by me. Usually after this sort of result one can console oneself along the lines of “well, I liked him but did not think the trainer could have him ready enough”. No such excuse here. He is powerful but so heavy set as to look like he would need at least one more run to be fit enough. 75

    Too many races today but will have a look at other 2yos and post up later if anything stands out.

  8. 4.20 Curragh

    10 years – 214 runners

    Last run, NOT in top 5: 1/88
    Career wins, 2: 0/51
    Career wins,2-3: 1/87
    Course wins, 1 or more: 1/78
    Course places, >1: 1/69
    No place in last three runs: 1/60 – 16

    Snap Shots (11/1), Ma Fee Heela (14/1) and Tobacco Bay (12/1) tick all the boxes.
    Worthy mention to Celebation (13/2) who only misses out by the narrowest of margins – finishing 6th last time out.


  9. Few more runners today for the Haggas system i shared yesterday which had a 7/2 and 11/10 winner from 5 picks yesterday.
    Haggas runners this time of year (July-Sept) in Class 1-3 races having finished 2nd/3rd/4th on their latest run. Averages around 10-12 qualifiers a month but seems to be a lot more this month!

    2013: 23%, +22 BFSP
    2014: 32%, +52 BFSP
    2015: 30%, +4 BFSP
    2016: 27%, +19 BFSP
    2017: 56%, +7 BFSP

    There are a few due to run today:
    3.05 York, Victory Bond, 8/1.
    3.15 Ascot, Tirania, 11/4.
    3.50 Ascot, Mutakayyef, 8/13.
    4.35 Newmarket, Tasleet, 8/1.
    5.00 Ascot, Alfarris, 11/1.

    Possibly have a little look at the 5.05 race later and look forward to reading your conclusions in the trends races, Josh!

    1. Good luck Chris… we are in agreement on most I think, hopefully a good sign! You can see which ones I like above.. the Bunbury.. talked myself out of above the rest and Donncha but we know what happens now!! Sterling work as always… oh and UAE prince/Victory Bond I have backed – stats picks in members post as above and they are type of horse I like to back in ‘bet of the day’.

  10. 3:25 Newmarket – Bunbury Cup.
    I thought I’d take a look at this as since 2007 all the winners have been aged between 4 and 6 which I used as a starting point. I’m not trying to outdo Chris B or Josh by any means, they’re much better than me at this but now and again it takes my fancy to have a go. I’ve thrown out anything over 25/1 and anything that last ran over 45 days ago. Same class or up 1 since last race and between 2 & 6 runs this season. Throw out any jockeys with a claim and that leaves me with Tashweeq, Tabarrak and Bossy Guest.

    1. Good luck Chris.. coming to your own views is what it’s about in these parts – there is no exact way to do the ‘trends’ approach, and my tips are ‘test’ for a reason in that sphere- very tough-and room for improvement. i have taken a stab, hopeful not expectant. Looks open enough but gut says one of the sheik’s – variety of blues- may prove to have a bit in hand. We shall see. you’ve got a couple of those covered.

  11. Two I put up on the members blog last night at a price – Nakeeta, 2.30 Yo, then 16/1 and Briardale, 3.05 Yo, then 33/1. I think both will outrun those prices. I understand that they have both been targeted at this meeting.

    1. Just looked at Haggas/York/Saturdays… 16/68,29p, +39 BFSP since 2012, in handicaps… 11/42,15p, +45 BFSP. More competitive racing may be reason for any price, but the stats are decent enough given that.
      GL today.

  12. 5.05 Newmarket 1m4f

    15 years – 172 runners

    Max. run >1m6f: 1/57
    Max. win >1m4f: 1/42
    Career wins, >3: 1/46
    1m4f wins, 1: 0/54

    10 years – 111 runners

    Handicap runs, >10: 1/47

    Sporting Times (8/1) and Apres Midi (28/1) tick all the boxes as does the 9/4 fav Silken dancer who on breeding doesn’t seem a certain stayer at this distance.


  13. Tony Mc, John, Michael Michaelson, Chris Albin, Colin,

    Thank you for your kind words of appreciation. I don’t really see myself as a tipster hence I never recommend any points system staking etc.

    As I’m sure Josh would agree this game is all about continually updating and enhancing our knowledge and IF I’ve managed to improve even one person’s ability to pick out a few winners along the way then that’s a fantastic feeling to have.
    Applying the trends is just one method. I enjoy reading the form judges on here who post regularly just as much as sifting through the trends and up until a few years ago it was how I used to try and solve the puzzles. Watching video after video and keeping notes didn’t suit my lifestyle so I had to adapt.

    I fear the next few weeks will be spent in the company of our friend ‘variance’ 🙁


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