Guest Race Preview: The John Smith’s Cup

Intro

What follows is a race preview from the tipping experts over at Speculate 2 Accumulate.  

As you know I see part of my job in this online racing world of ours as sifting through the rubbish to unearth the odd gem. I rarely introduce or discuss other ‘services’ and especially what I would call ‘tipster/race adviser’ services. But, I am quite aware that many readers enjoy following ‘tipsters’ and have no interest in my own unique approach! (some of you like a bit of both). This is the first daily+weekend tipster service I have introduced. Most of the others I respect just focus on weekends/big meetings.

I came across this service via one of your comments. Colin, who may well say hello below, has been with this services for over four years. He has been a reader of this blog for quite a while, posting comments every now and then. There was a discussion on tipsters and Colin gave this service a glowing recommendation. On closer inspection these guys have been proofing independently to Racing Index for a number of years. I like that. They declare all their prices to SP and BFSP which is rather honourable of them. Many of their selections will be well backed and if you can get on with bookies you’d have no doubt done even better.

Anyway, there is no ‘selling’ going on today! This is about the race preview below. And this is no flash in the pan. They have agreed to let me share some of their members’ content every now and then for your good selves to read.

IMPORTANT... I am in discussions with them about getting you a Special Offer, just for Racing to Profit readers. This will be an extended money back guaranteed period (likely to be around 3 months!) and possibly a discounted offer also. They tick the boxes I like to be ticked and have my seal of approval. A few of you will be interested. Most of you will just enjoy reading these free previews.

Results…from 1/12/2015 to date they have returned a ROI of 17.4% to BSP on all selections, level staking. That is very good. Recent highlights would be Zhui Feng and Out Do at Royal Ascot 2017. I think they know what they’re doing.

So, at some point in the near future you’ll have a chance to see what all the fuss is about and like Colin, add them to your portfolio. You’ll be able to access the special offer.

For now, their big race preview… I hope you enjoy the read… (this is from their Elite Service, which focuses on big races and compliments their daily offering…)

 

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York 3.05 John Smith Cup 1 mile 2 furlongs 56 Yards – Class 2

15 BIG COUNTRY @ 10/1 – 1 point each way

4 MASTER CARPENTER @ 16/1 – 1 point each way

7 VICTORY BOND @ 9/1 – 1/2 point each way

20 DARK RED @ 25/1 – 1/2 point each way

(All Bookies showing Odds to 4th except Paddy Power – odds to 5th – shop around – most likely to be to 5th).

We could not quite manage a win last week but SOLDIER IN ACTION ran a cracker in defeat, ran very prominently; looked to be swamped but stayed on bravely for a runner up. The winner, well it had precious little UK form, no excuses; it won, I will be honest, if I’d had 16 picks, I still could not have picked it on any kind of form analysis; that’s racing; you can’t win every one, and credit to connections!

The choice for Saturday was between Newmarket and York; for me that’s no choice at all really, I don’t do too badly on The Rowley Mile, but The July Course is a complete mystery to me, York on the other hand, I love and hopefully we can find another winner for you, far better I think to look at a tougher race on a Course you like, than a tough race; on a track you just cannot fathom out at all; know your limitations and all that!

So here is the logic for the selections above.

A historic race with plenty of trends, a track that time after time delivers previous Course winners winning again.

The draw indicates that on Good or better Going middle is the best place to be over this trip in a big field, ideally  stalls 8-13 but on Good or softer, there is little if any bias,as they tend to make a charge down the middle of the track; in other words, I don’t think there is any draw excuse at all. The weather is a bit of an unknown, it is currently Good to Firm BUT there is a strong chance of a fair amount of rain between 10am and 2 pm tomorrow, so I am hedging on the Going being Good / Good to Soft and 3 of the 4 picks look sure to be quite pleased IF the rain arrives but won’t mind if the Going is just plain “Good”!

So lets weed them out, first off the list are Bravery (trip); Another Touch (trip) ; Dragon Mal (nge) ; Tumbaga (nge); Briardale (mark); Majeed (going if rains) ; Mistiroc (nge); Eddystone Rock (nge) ; Sixties Groove (value); Erik The Red (going if rains); Garcia (break and form) for the brief reason indicated (nge = not good enough).

Of the remainer; I would explain the others as follows-:

Central Square (not quite well handicapped enough for me over a mark of 100); Snoano (blown mark withRoyal Ascot win and last 2 Course runs disappointing); Ballet Concerto (trip a concern, no Course form); Sixties Groove (I just don’t think is great value as above); UAE Prince (more potential than substance so far; and not quite convinced enough, ticks every trend box and probably the one outside the final 5 most worried about).

 

That’s 15 sorted then, so on to the final 5.

 

SCARLET DRAGON CD winner off 92; aimed at this race since last year; seen running on late in the race Snoano won at Ascot and gets a decent pull at weights for it; likely to be in top 6 but I have one that is a whopping 23lbs better off with it than a race last year!

That horse is DARK RED, bottom of the weights ran here with great promise last August behind Scarlet Dragon,beaten just a few lengths and although disappointing so far in 2017; has excuses, you can definitely mark at least one of those runs up markedly as it ran in small group against the draw and thrashed those on its side = intriguing!

VICTORY BOND is the dark horse in the race for me; and if it wasn’t for a lack of big race; big field experience it would be first pick, Trainer is an absolute genius at a plot here and if it runs to potential it will place if it improves; it could hammer these. I fancy 2 others though at the odds a bit more.

MASTER CARPENTER won the race in 2015; has a perfect Course and Distance record, mark is up to 105BUT horses for Courses pays here and any rain would be a significant boost and I expect a big run.

BIG COUNTRY has been aimed at the race by a canny under-rated gambling Trainer; won in Class 3 overCourse and Distance off a mark of 94; ignore last run, wrong trip, and may have been to get horse fit and to hide its mark a bit, way it ran that day supports that theory, will run prominently and I think if anything beats it – it wins…..so my staking is important.

 

One Point each way on BIG COUNTRY and MASTER CARPENTER.

Half a point each way on the unexposed Victory Bond and the excellent vale DARK RED.

 

I do fear UAE Prince but think Victory Bond is the more likely of the unexposed ones and I can’t ignore the massive form anomaly between Scarlet Dragon (who I take for 5th) and DARK RED which I have tried to lay out in graphic detail!

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Well, I enjoyed the read, I hope you did too. GL if you follow them in.
Josh

 

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

5 Comments

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  • Good to see you have managed to touch base with these guys and quite rightly everyone will make their own judgement and form opinions. All I can add is as Josh says; I have been a member for 4 years, excellent customer service, very transparent, never make excuses in poor runs and overall a very solid and nice profit and very educational write up’s too. I hope my suggestion has not put a “hex on” the tips but over a long period, you’d have fun.

    The Daily tips today have finished 2nd 13/2; 3rd 8/1 and 1st 16/1 all tipped each way at bigger odds (those are SP’s) with one to come, so they are in decent form.

    Good Luck all

    Colin

    Colin 14/07/17 4:53 PM Reply


  • I’m not sure if it will make any difference for anyone at this stage but for what it’s worth it’s raining at York racecourse as I type (2130hrs) and has been for the last half hour.

    Jamie 14/07/17 9:27 PM Reply


  • Not to be today though Big Country went very close, a strange race as York can be, but well done to Chris B for finding the winner.

    Colin 15/07/17 5:42 PM Reply


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