Members Daily Post: 03/07/17 (complete)

quals + ratings pointers + July +4x Bets of Day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Micro System Test Zone

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

LATE UPDATES! As of 8.15 am… to 7.15 (an ‘ES’ + qual) and 9.15 (qual)

 

FLAT

Pontefract

2.00- Dusty Blue (micro age) 16/1 UP

3.00- Hope Solo (3yo+, + micro TJC) 25/1 UP

5.00-

Inspector Norse (3yo+) G1 8/1 UP

City Ground (micro class) I3 5/1 UP

 

Windsor

7.00-

Reckless Wave (all hncps) H1 I3 

Angel of Rome (all hncps) 30  15/2UP

Becca Campbell (3yo+) I1 G3 11/2 2nd 13/2

Secret Soul (micro age) 10/1 3rd

9.00 –

Jumping Jack (all hncps) H3 I3 30  4/1

Inlawed (all hncps) G3 14/1

 

Hamilton

6.15 –

Molecule (3yo+, + micro hncp debut + runs) 14,30 9/1 UP

Reflation (micro going+ age) I3 16/1 UP

7.15 –

Bronze Beau (3yo+) ES I3  7/1 WON 14/1

Hamidans Girl (micro runs) ES  H3 G3  11/2 3rd 9/2 

7.45 –

Warp Factor (3yo+) H3 I3 G3  14,30 11/2 UP

Mister Belvedere (3yo+) 14,30 G1 4/1 UP 5/2 

8.15 –

What Wonders Weave (3yo+) 14,30 5/1 3rd 13/2

Archies Affair (3yo+) H1 I3 G3 14,30 9/4 2nd 

Spes Nostra (micro class) I1 25/1 UP

Auxiliary (micro class) 16/1 UP

8.45 –

Set In Stone (3yo+) 14,30  G3  13/2 UP

Celestation (micro class) I3  7/1 UP

9.15 –

Akkadian Empire (micro class) 33/1 UP

Princess Nearco (micro going) 20/1 UP

Amy Blair (micro runs) ES  I1 G1  8/1  4/1 WON 4/1 (dec price,R4s)

 

**

KEY

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

**

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 4/31,15p, +4.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/86, +29.1)

 

5.00 Ponte – Inspector Norse – 1 point win – 8/1 UP

7.45 Ham – Mister Belvedere – 1 point win – 7/2  UP

9.00 Wind- Inlawed – 1 point win – 14/1  UP (travelled well,maybe he needs rattling quick ground, didn’t pick up…) 

9.15 Ham- Princess Nearco – 1 point win – 20/1 UP (ran ok, one to watch. Still learning the game, slowly. Showed a glimpse of promise here. Maybe step up or needs to wise up further) 

 

Inspector Norse… (UP..hmm bit of a nothing sort of run, not great,not atrocious. Pace collapsed but didn’t pick up) lightly raced enough for his age, 2/17, I was just tempted in on this third start of the season. Back in 2014 he was rated 75 for old connections and has tumbled down the weights. LTO was the first time he has showed anything for a while really and it could be he is hitting some form. That was a C6 but it does mean he gets a stone less on his back here in actual weight, which may help. It is his third run of the season and could be now that he reaches peak fitness. And it is his first run at Pontefract and the way he runs to me suggests that he may like the climb to the line here. He is drawn wide so will need to get out/and or get a decent position. But his jockey has done well in her career to date. One day he will make mince meat of this mark I suspect. This angle is also one that was very close to becoming an ‘elite squad’ member but I was strict with that interpretation. Before this season T Easterby was 8/34,14p in 3yo+ handicaps. At 8/1 I was happy to throw a dart.

Mister Belvedere… god help us all as I dip to an end of the market where I have a questionable record…I hope this one pays for/covers the rest and if I just had to back one today it would be him. I think this price is just about ok, given the profile- and it is one that has and will find us plenty of winners moving forward. Every box is ticked… unexposed/some decent form already in book/running well/3rd start of season so no fitness excuses/trainer in red hot form and he is doing something different- moves up in distance by 2f, and at a track with a climb to the line.. that is the reason he could chew this lot up and spit them out- and could have a chunk in hand. He may not stay of course, breeding suggests he should relish this- as does the way he has run the last twice over shorter. Him and Warp Factor (will probably do me now but less exposed,but a chance) are both quite a way clear on the geegeez speed figures also. He should run his race.

Inlawed.. I couldn’t resist 14/1 here. He is 0/6,2 places in his career. Unexposed and at some point there should be more to come. So, why should we see an improved performance today.. well he moves up in distance by 2f and to my eye looks to be crying out for a longer trip. He has been out-paced in his runs over 6f. The last day I think the level of oppo- class 4, and the 6f on GF, just took him off his feet. He drops back in class here to a track where he has placed/run well twice previously. There is some pace on paper also. I would like to see some support and at this stage the market is indicating it may not be today. But there is enough there to go on. Unexposed/up in trip/down in class/returns to a track where he has run well/excuses for LTO/ran ok run before that/ 14/1. Bet.

Princess Nearco.. well I don’t think she is going to win this. But I don’t think she should be 20/1, I can’t resist that price, and on paper you wouldn’t fall off your seat if she did go close. Again another unexposed one making the 4th start of her life and on handicap debut. The trainer doesn’t do too well with handicap debutants but he is 1/20,3 places, so has had a winner. And only 0/1 at the track where he has most of his runners I think. Trainer and jockey are 0/17,1p also, most of those on big priced ones it seems. But, the horse moves up in trip by a furlong at a stiff track. And it is her second start of the season and should come on fitness wise for LTO. At 20s there is enough there. Hopeful rather than expectant. And if she doesn’t win with any luck Amy Blair may for the ‘Elite Squad’.

**

Those are the 4 that looked most interesting to me. There are three Elite Squad qualifiers, one of which is also a ‘double top rated’ one, and a couple of Top rated+ A top 3 rated. We shall see how they all go.

**

As an aside, Becca Campbell may be one for those of you who like tracking horses. She may win today and make this point irrelevant but she is now 0/7,0p in class 5 in turf handicaps. 4/10,6 places in class 6, +18. Runs at a new trip today which will either unlock more (needs to) or she doesn’t stay and this is the start of the ‘get the mark down process’, before they drop her back into a class 6 and wallop. Maybe. One to keep an eye on.

 

 

3.Micro System Test Zone

July Trainer (any odds)

3.30 Pont- Margoom UP (may need 3 miles!- looks a boat/maybe cut..?)

4.30 Pont – Glorious UP (awkward head carriage for me,looks a monkey,maybe has to lead)

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

No decent priced winners from the AOB notes but after Saturday that wasn’t too surprising. A couple of shorter priced winners was about it. Hopefully you found those useful and managed to make a profit over the three days with them. This month and next crank up another gear on the ‘big meeting’ front with the likes of the Newmarket July Festival,Galway,Glorious Goodwood and York Ebor. I’m sure there may be the odd other one in between that lot also.

Results… keeping on top of these spreadsheets is proving a challenge at the moment. The Summer Jumps is nearly there, just a couple of hundred BFSP prices I need to input, and pulling the ratings pointers etc up to date, and the Flat. I am getting there, albeit painfully slow at times in between all the other things on my to do list. I will try and do weekly updates on ‘advised strategies’ and will clarify/pull those together on Monday again. Double/Treble Top Rated | Top Rated + Top 3 rating|  Elite Squad look to be the potential ‘systematic’ approaches emerging so far.

I will also be starting to research the main winter TTP guide this month. That’s about 40-50 hours worth I like to spread between now and the end of August.

So, plenty going on. As ever if there is anything you think i could be doing to make your experience better, fire away or email me. (hope you checked out the free blog and backed the Summer Cup winner at 12/1. It was nice to have a decent 3m+ chase to attack)

 

**

That’s all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Hi Josh,

    Been a decent few days all round with some excellent contributions from members. THANKS TO ALL

    …..

    The season runs has thrown up 2 curve-balls again! both of them Dalgleish’s at Ham.

    7.15 Hamidans Girl

    9.15 Amy Blair

    Mike

    1. Cheers Mike, yep those two passed me by! And given the various codes by their names a chance one or both could go very close.

      1. Morning Josh,

        Looking at RP’s cards yesterday for today’s runners I would have missed them both also but I’ve now got into the habit of opening up any potential ‘season runs’ quals full history. Weirdly, looking at todays cards the RP now has the correct form figures??? Maybe they’ve recognised the glitch(or had some irate emails) and are addressing incorrect ones as they occur. NH figs always seem to be correct so maybe someone hit a wrong key when setting flat parameters this season.

        Mike

        1. Looking at tomorrow at Ham 5.00 Dalgleish has Lady Molly with form showing 5 runs but again thats from the beginning of year not this season.
          mike

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