No system qualifiers.
There won’t be any ‘tips’, reserved as they are for 3m+ handicap chases in general.
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From the Members’ Post… some more ‘bets of the day’ – which is my subjective interpretation of the initial stats qualifiers… (I am due some losers now after that weekend! 🙂 )Â
Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 4/31,15p, +4.6) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 12/86, +29.1)
5.00 Ponte – Inspector Norse – 1 point win – 8/1
7.45 Ham – Mister Belvedere – 1 point win – 7/2Â
9.00 Wind- Inlawed – 1 point win – 14/1Â
9.15 Ham- Princess Nearco – 1 point win – 20/1Â
Inspector Norse… lightly raced enough for his age, 2/17, I was just tempted in on this third start of the season. Back in 2014 he was rated 75 for old connections and has tumbled down the weights. LTO was the first time he has showed anything for a while really and it could be he is hitting some form. That was a C6 but it does mean he gets a stone less on his back here in actual weight, which may help. It is his third run of the season and could be now that he reaches peak fitness. And it is his first run at Pontefract and the way he runs to me suggests that he may like the climb to the line here. He is drawn wide so will need to get out/and or get a decent position. But his jockey has done well in her career to date. One day he will make mince meat of this mark I suspect. This angle is also one that was very close to becoming an ‘elite squad’ member but I was strict with that interpretation. Before this season T Easterby was 8/34,14p in 3yo+ handicaps. At 8/1 I was happy to throw a dart.
Mister Belvedere… god help us all as I dip to an end of the market where I have a questionable record…I hope this one pays for/covers the rest and if I just had to back one today it would be him. I think this price is just about ok, given the profile- and it is one that has and will find us plenty of winners moving forward. Every box is ticked… unexposed/some decent form already in book/running well/3rd start of season so no fitness excuses/trainer in red hot form and he is doing something different- moves up in distance by 2f, and at a track with a climb to the line.. that is the reason he could chew this lot up and spit them out- and could have a chunk in hand. He may not stay of course, breeding suggests he should relish this- as does the way he has run the last twice over shorter. Him and Warp Factor (will probably do me now but more exposed,but a chance) are both quite a way clear on the geegeez speed figures also. He should run his race.
Inlawed.. I couldn’t resist 14/1 here. He is 0/6,2 places in his career. Unexposed and at some point there should be more to come. So, why should we see an improved performance today.. well he moves up in distance by 2f and to my eye looks to be crying out for a longer trip. He has been out-paced in his runs over 6f. The last day I think the level of oppo- class 4, and the 6f on GF, just took him off his feet. He drops back in class here to a track where he has placed/run well twice previously. There is some pace on paper also. I would like to see some support and at this stage the market is indicating it may not be today. But there is enough there to go on. Unexposed/up in trip/down in class/returns to a track where he has run well/excuses for LTO/ran ok run before that/ 14/1. Bet.
Princess Nearco.. well I don’t think she is going to win this. But I don’t think she should be 20/1, I can’t resist that price, and on paper you wouldn’t fall off your seat if she did go close. Again another unexposed one making the 4th start of her life and on handicap debut. The trainer doesn’t do too well with handicap debutants but he is 1/20,3 places, so has had a winner. And only 0/1 at the track where he has most of his runners I think. Trainer and jockey are 0/17,1p also, most of those on big priced ones it seems. But, the horse moves up in trip by a furlong at a stiff track. And it is her second start of the season and should come on fitness wise for LTO. At 20s there is enough there. Hopeful rather than expectant. And if she doesn’t win with any luck Amy Blair may for the ‘Elite Squad’.
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GL with any bets.
7 Responses
I’ll re-post in here:
9/1 winner to keep the winning run going with both the Summer Cup picks placing. Just the one for me tomorrow to try and make it 3 days in a row. Fleetwood Jack who runs in the 21:15 at Hamilton was thought to be well treated by Mark Howard when he was on 67 so looks even more so given he has dropped to a mark of 63. He was backed into fav on his re-appearance but looked to have needed it before being sent out over an inadequate 1m2f LTO. (His trainer mentioned 1m would be his trip as a 3yr old) They put the visor on to sharpen him up. Tudhope and O’Meara have combined to go 3/7 in handicaps at the track over the past 12 months so clearly a track they target.
Hi Nick, your reasoning sounds fine. I had a look at the race and it looks as if it will either win or be down the field? We shall see.
Such hard luck with Englishman Chris…i took 28/1….. i fuffed but was happy really. lol
Top stuff Chris.
Tony Mc.
4.15 Wolverhampton 7f a/w Class 6 Claimer
1 point win Sophisticated Heir.
This is the type of race I like The Favourite Joey’s Destiny
is rated a pound behind Sophisticated Heir and in 10 tries
over the distance has only been placed twice.
While Sophisticated Heir has twice won over 7f and looked to be coming back to a bit of form last time at Redcar running 5th.
Much better on the all weather I think he will go very close
Rouge Nuuage was a class 3 horse but has had over a year off and is dropped into a claimer
first run back and this doesn’t bode well that he will be at his best on ratings he is a pound behind
Joey and two behind Sophisticated if he were 100% after his break he still isn’t the best horse on ratings
so with doubts about his well being can’t be fancied
Spirit of Gondree is only rated 42 and has two stone to find on the principals
finish of message
the main dangers to Sophisticated Heir are Parkour and Fidelma Moon
Parkour was placed in a class 4 handicap in March and would have every chance on that form
but this is his first run over 7f and while unlike Joey his into a serial loser at the trip
has it to prove.
So the main danger could be Carl Burkes Fidelma Moon who is a c/d winner who has been entered at a very low claiming price which gives her every chance and the 10/1 would be worth taking e/w if there were at least 8 runners but 7 runners scuppers the e/w value
SUMMARY
Sophisticated Heir looks the solid horse in the race and a 1 point win at 10/3 with bet365 Sky bet Bet victor
The Tote and Corals looks a decent play
Fridays race review
Dream Walker got taken out by the favourite just after the start and that scuppered
both their chances allowing Michelle Strogoff to slip clear for an easy win.
Strong Steps was backed into 5/2 Favourite(from an early 14/1) and would likely have won if he hadn’t took off right leaving the stalls.
After that neither he nor Dream Walker had much chance and they ran well to finish 2nd and 4th.
Parkour is now a non runner so Sophisticated Heir looks an even better bet, of course with the rule 4
100/30 isn’t the price but still 5/2 with Hills and a touch bigger on the Exchanges.
Can’t work out why Fidelma Moon is still 11/1 with Corals as there are major negatives with Rouge Nuage
and Joey’s Destiny and Fidelma Moon is shrewdly entered by Kark Burke off a very low claiming price.
3rd July Windsor 5f Nov Auc
4.25
3.75 Misty Spirit, Smooth Sailing
3.5 Dusty
3.25 Bucks Frizz, Flying Sparkle, Polly’s gold, That’s My Girl
3 Fab, Silver Bullet
2.75 Hunni, Lastoneforthecraic
2 Raise A Little Joy
1.75 Spix’s Macaw 1.5 Jan’s Joy, Tea Rattle 1 Watch Tan
Preview – This looks like a poor race. Misty Spirit is trained by David Elsworth and so far his 2yos have not been close to ready fto. Smooth Sailing is with Charlie Hills and like Dusty is drawn very wide. At least dusty has had a run.
Bucks Frizz showed nothing on debut, Polly’s Gold is trained by R Hughes and although the stable is in form his 2yo debutants continue to underperform horribly.
Flying Sparkle and That’s My Girl seem likely to be of most interest. Flying Sparkle because it appears Hayley turner has come out of retirement to ride it on debut and That’s My girl as a 2to Hannon runner. Like the others who have had a run That’s My Girl did not show much on debut
Other than Hayley’s presence I cannot find much to look forward to here.
Hugh