Saturday was one of those mad days and I hope you backed a winner or two across the site. The 60+ day angles continue to tick along. The star of the show was AOB at the Curragh with the notes/micros finding three winners at decent prices, 8/1, 10/1,10/1. A £5 treble paid £5.5k or so on my maths- nope I didn’t place that bet either! The day would have been as perfect as they come if i’d have ‘tipped’ Sayem,but if you played in that race I hope you had a saver on. I will take the positives- in general the unexposed ones/doing something different, should continue to reward throughout the rest of the season. When they are that lightly raced trying to second guess at that price can be a bit foolish. She was trying a new trip,moving back up by 2f and Spencer took over. That should have been enough at 8s/9s. Next time. Mark Johnston started well enough in July, hopefully a sign of things to come.
In total there were winners within the Saturday’s post priced 8/1, 8/1,10/1,10/1,10/1,9/1,4/1. A good day! (Not to mention a few nice winners from you shrewd readers)
Henllan Harri – 1 point win – 10/1 (WH/SportingB) 9/1 (gen) 4th
Tempestatefloresco – 1 point win – 11/1 (WH/BetfS) 10/1 (gen) WON 12/1
I narrowed this down to the two selections, Fact of The Matter UP (jumping/big field niggle but in form and progressive) and In The Rough 3rd 20/1 (Trainer/jockey 2/87 on chasers last 2 years caught my eye,can be held up also…I may hunt around down the side of the sofa for some change to throw at him). Optimistic Bias UP (in form,but this is tougher,big field,can idle/be lazy in front)
Well he just hasn’t done anything wrong really and is worth support at a generous price for me. On paper/form he should be fav I think. The race he won at Sandown is usually decent form and he deserves respect to have led that field and to cling on at the line (agonising for me as I had tipped/backed the second). I want to read that form for what it is. I wondered if it was a fluke somehow given all previous form but best to trust it I think, until proven otherwise. It is the best chase form on show. He will race prominently, is a fighter, and has been nothing but consistent. The days rest suggests this has been a plan, rather than an issue for him. This is probably the first suitable chase for him since then. He hasn’t gone up much in the weights and there could be more to come. He could get the lead here albeit a few like to be up there. But they know he stays further so will be aggressive. Peter Bowen is in cracking form still, 6/14,8p in the last 14 days. If he is primed here he should be giving a bold sight and will be staying on dourly at the end. If he is leading turning for home that could be game over.
With these decent pots my eyes can be drawn to the big yards and those who have a record of plundering such prizes. The Tizzard empire is growing (another 45 new boxes or so, the Potts and other new owners ploughing money in etc) and all of their runners in decent races are worth serious consideration. This one is unexposed over fences and at this trip. He also comes here in very good form. I found it interesting that they ran him over hurdles the last day- I suspect, like with a few in here, this has been a plan, and that run would have kept him ticking over without ruining his handicap mark. He races prominently and should give it a bold sight. He may not be good enough but there should be more to come from him in this discipline and he should prove better than this chase mark. His winning Novice Chase run, where he decimated a field at Newton Abbot, was over 26f, and this is the first time he has run over it since. It should unlock more. Interesting runner.
Pace – they should both be where I like all chasers- and that is either leading or just sat off the pace. No excuses on that front.
Of the rest…
It’s highly likely I may not have mentioned the winner. Fact of The Matter is unexposed but can hit the odd fence and was held up the last day. This big field, being surrounded by horses, will be a new test for him. If he jumps soundly he should be in the mix. This trip looks more suitable than the last day. But he won’t want to get too far back. I suspect he may take a fence home with him when trying to close. In The Rough… looks interesting at 18s. There could be more to come from him and he won LTO. The headgear needs to work again which is no given. He can be inconsistent. And Aidan Coleman jumps ship, which isn’t a great sign either for me. What with Richie and Jonjo only being 2/87 with all chasers in the last 730 days I was a bit put off. 40+ day break also which is one of those odd rest patterns- maybe they have waited for this. He could place, doing his best work late. If he wins, then there may be the odd expletive muttered in this part of the North West.
That’s all for this one. I feel a bit rusty with the old 3m+ chasers. I forget the last one I looked at properly. Scottish National maybe. We shall see how these go.
Flat 2017: 60+ Days
2.10 Wind – Nobbly Born (any)
2.40 Wind – Val Cartier (any)
3.10 Wind- Whispering Bell (any)
That’s the lot.