Members Daily Post: 24/06/17 (complete)

quals + ratings pointers + RA + bet of the day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

2.40 – Flyboy (4yo+) G1 4/1 UP

 

Ayr

2.55 – Hibou (4yo+) 9/1 3rd

4.50 – Lexington Place (micro going IF GOOD TO FIRM tbc morning)  ES I3  (good as per HRB, won’t ‘officially’ qualify)

5.25 – Vallarta (micro distance/runs/ going as above) ES H3 G3 G1 9/2 UP

 

Newmarket (july)

none.

 

Ascot

3.05 –

Ayrad (all hncps) 14,30 16/1 UP

Maverick Wave (all + going) 33/1 UP

Tumbaga (micro 90 days) 28/1 UP

5.00 –

Projection (all hncps) 14,30 8/1 2nd 

Steady Pace (micro 90 days) 20/1 3rd 

 

Lingfield

5.45 – Tojosimbre (micro class) 14 G1  10/1 UP 4/1

 

Haydock

6.30 –

Kachess (all hncps + micro runs) ES  7/1

Midnight Malibu (micro TJC) H3 8/1

7.00 – Teodoro (all hncps+ micro TJC/runs) ES  H3 I3 G3  2/1

8.35 – Chosen Character (all hncps + 4yo+) ES I1 G1 11/2 

 

Bonus

8.05 – Sidewinder (3yo) ES  H3 I1  13/2

 

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

 

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/23,12p, +0.8) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/78, +24.3)

 

 

5.45 Ling – Tojosimbre – 1 point win – 10/1 (PP) 8/1 (gen) UP 4/1

*hmmm. Well backed. Travelled well for most part. Nothing there at all when asked, went backwards. Moving on.

Mr Pricewise, Tom Segal, is on a losing run of 50 odd or so I believe and while I haven’t yet reached those heady heights with Bet of The Day I could do with a winner. Still, I would bite your hadn off to repeat +24 points ever 78 bets.

Tojosimbre... well he ticks those boxes that I like to be ticked- he is unexposed, having the second handicap run of his life. And he is doing something different, namely moving up in trip by another 2f. He ran the last day as if he was worth a crack at an extended distance and you never know if they truly stay until you try. He also moves from a 3YO only handicap into open company which means he gets the weight for age allowances etc. Hughes is also the only trainer in the race ‘in form’ as per the geegeez method, as noted in the Key above. That doesn’t mean the rest are out of form of course but his are going particularly well at the moment. The race could also set up for him- he is usually held up and on paper there are 4 or 5 front runners in here. Hopefully they all cut each other’s throats (which is what I was tempted to do while watching Radiohead last night at Glast. I lasted 30 minutes. Awful. They seem to be a marmite band though,with a loyal following. Not for me)  In any case I thought 8s was worth a stab with his profile and he is top rated on Geegeez also. If he stays he should be thereabouts. He did have a high head carriage the last day but as yet  hard to tell if he is a monkey.

 

Notes: Vallarta – looks to have an ok chance I think and is top rated GG by quite some way, not Top 3 as originally noted above. He is clear top. He could also get the lead here although there are plenty of pace pushers in here. He is just in form. He could win. He could get collared by something more progressive/more in hand. But he will be up there for a long way. Kachess – gets the first time visor – so doing something different! – it needs to work. Chance if it does. Sidewinder… he was trapped wide the last day and possibly didn’t like the ground. Back on a firm surface he should run a better race and looked progressive before that. Something else may have more in hand but I suspect he won’t be far away here.

Chosen Character- hmmm. Well I think he needs some rain – there is forecast to be some mid day so do go on weather watch- but he rarely runs a good race on good to firm, indeed the last time he did was in 2012 and maybe his older more fragile legs don’t like it anymore. Kingscote jumps ship which is interesting, and also onto another front runner. If they hold up Chosen Character then we know they are playing silly buggers. He is handicapped to win again and will make all on soft at some point this season. The last day showed he was in decent nick still. I think this may be the jockey’s first ride also? or in any case is very inexperienced. Maybe she will just let him cart her along on the front end. I don’t really know what to think really. He is double top rated and if allowed to dictate, and it isn’t as firm as advertised/they get rain to take sting out, he may do ok.

 

**

 

 

 

June Trainers

Bowen is having a good June. That one was worth uncovering. Just need Midgley to join the party within this system…

2.40 Red – Related (18/1<) DNQ

5.25 Ayr – Buccaneers Vault (18/1<)

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

Results: TTP Flat… there is a comment in reply to a question from Martin that I have re-posted below. You may find it of some interest. In short..

-Double Top Rated: Now 8/21, +17.75 (early/morn prices)

-Top Rated + A Top 3 Rated: Now 16/72,, 22% win SR +22.75 (early/morn prices) (any odds)

Those are looking the most intriguing ‘systematic’ approaches to take with the ratings pointers. I am keeping at eye on Top Rated (any) 6/1+, but having had a good start they have hit a wobble.

Hopefully those two, along with the ‘Elite Squad’ may end up being decent, but we shall see.

I am nearly on top of the Summer Jumps spreadsheets- Royal Ascot has distracted me/taken out more time than anticipated. I want everything up to date this time next week. No excuse next week. It will be done.

**

 

**

ROYAL ASCOT: DAY 5 

Micro Systems

AOB 1 (any odds)

2.30 – September WON 5/4

AOB 2 (20/1< guide)

2.30 – September WON 5/4

GOSDEN (any odds, 12/1< best)

2.30 – Westerland UP

3.40 – Western Hymn  UP/ Wings of Desire UP

STOUTE (12/1<)

3.40 – Across The Stars  UP/ Dartmouth UP

COX (16/1<)

3.40 – My Dream Boat

 

**

Notes

3.05 – Khairaat UP

4.20 – Magical Memory UP

5.00- Outback Traveller UP

5.35 – Thomas Hobsom 2nd / US Army Ranger 3rd

 

My Fancies

2.30 – Westerland – 1/2 point ew- 12/1 UP

3.40 – Wings of Desire – 1 point win – 15/2, 7/1 UP

Two last rolls of the dice to see if I can build on my +1 point, or end up -1. Either way it has been a fun week and hopefully you have backed a winner or two and may be ahead. Westerland- well the trip looks sure to suit and Johnny G has won the race before. They may well all be chasing September who if you read the RP Spotlight has plenty going for her. She could be smart. But with any luck this one can chase her home and you never know.

Wings of Desire.. well he has plenty of decent form in the book and if he has developed further from last year AND if he is fit, I think he should be in the mix. It would be nice for the Queen to have a winner though and I won’t mind cheering Dartmouth on. 5/2 too short for me though, esp with the ground niggle (it is only that). Fitness… well I have just done some digging.. Gosden with horses off track 300+ days… 28/123, 60p all runners, +24 SP, +90 BFSP. In G2, 1/8,2p, Ascot 1/7,5p, and over 1m4f… 4/15,8p, +17 (in Gr2 1/2). So, I think Johnny G may have him as fit as he can be here. At the prices I will have a dart. And he has Buick on, which is no bad thing this week.

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That’s the lot for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Results reply to Martin from 23rd post, for Flat TTP…

    Firstly, Double Top Rated (any 2x H1/I1/G1) are now 8/21, +17.75 at morning prices (prices noted next to horse) That is since start of flat season including today/Trulee S.

    H3+G3..

    Well these had a good start. They were 4/20,8p , +3.5 early/ +4 BFSP to 6th june.
    Since then they are 0/9, 3 places, up to yesterday.

    So a total of 4/29, 11 places… -5.5. The places gives some hope and in general last few weeks just been a bit crap on all fronts anyway. It may well turn around.

    They perform by far the best of the ‘3s’

    H3+I3 = 2/29, 5p… -19

    I3+G3 = 2/17,6p… -7

    Hope that helps. Top rated seems to be the place to focus for any systematic approach but the Top Rated 6/1+ is on a losing run of 12 or so since the update on 6th. So they are still under scrutiny.

    I did also look at all qualifiers when they were both a Handicap+ Micro qualifier…but nothing much on that front… 7/66, 20 places.. +11 up to yesterday. The placed horses could give some hope that this may improve but the SR is in line with ‘backing all’ and that would be a bumpy ride.

    Think that is about it.

    Double Top Rated is showing promise. All other possible ratings pointers approaches are in the ‘yet to be proven’ stage, on the flat- and I would NOT advise diving in deep just based on those figures.

    Top 3 rated seem to perform worse than the non ratings pointers horses.

    Hopefully the Elite Squad may work systematically. As that and the ‘double top rated’ could be a nice little portfolio.

    From there best going on a horse by horse basis and trying to come out in front. I am not doing that as yet with ‘bet of the day’ but early days and placed horses give me some encouragement on that front.

    Peter Bowen has helped!

    Josh

    p.s The top rated + a top 3 rated… were 3/13, -2.5 from 7th June to yesterday I think (or day before) Trulee has helped with that and those figures were 11/55, +18. So.. that one is a possible also. …

    Those figures for Top Rated + Top 3 rated from start season up to 23/06…
    72 bets / 16 wins / 22% wSR / +22.75 points (early/BOG)

  2. Its interesting that Kingscote prefers Captain Courageous over Chosen Character,as well as doing the singles i have done a yankee on Kingscotes rides tomorrow,if it comes off I will retire for the summer,some hope?

  3. Hi Josh,
    Maybe it`s because it`s early in the morning, but, struggling with what is top 3 rated and double top rated is that the h1 i1 g1, or is it the colour coded numbers you have after the horses name?
    Like i said maybe it`s just me, need it explaining “for idiots” style or i struggle.haha.
    Fancy MAJEED for Mr Spencer today, also NORMANDY BARRIERE for Mr Buick to finish off a great week at Ascot for me and him, had doubles on him first day and yesterday!
    Paid for my week that!!
    He is a great jockey and messers Spencer and Moore have contributed to a fine week for the “top” jocks.

    1. Hi Stewart…
      No question is ever stupid in these parts. It is all simple once you get the hang of it, I think.

      Yep so when I talk about a ratings pointer horse, or what is ‘top 3 rated’ say, I am referring to those red symbols next to the horse, and as explained in The Key, which is now above.

      So double top rated is any horse with two of… H1 I1 G1

      And Top Rated + at least one Top 3 Rated is any H1 I1 G1 with any one of H3 I3 G3

      Top 3 rated is essentially 2nd rated or 3rd rated in the said ratings set, given top rated covers the horse that is top rated! (hope that makes sense!)

      And if that hasn’t done the job fire away again and I will try again. I can be useless at clarity.

      **
      Jockeys. Yep the cream usually rises to the top at RA. They are all class, all different. Pleased Buick has had a great week, a superb jockey, and he has won plenty with his judgement of pace on the front end.

      Three things added to my research to do list I think
      -Jockeys + Course and Distance (inspired by Jamie’s Ascot Handicap 8f stats) Am sure we can find a handful to track/keep an eye on. Plenty of logic there.
      -Charlie Appleby – about time I had a look at him, keeps firing in these big priced handicap winners, among others.
      -And generally I should have a look at Jockeys for my big meeting notes/reports and see what stands out etc.

      Glad to hear you have had a good week, and some nice doubles! Top work. Quite some judge.
      Josh

      1. Thanks Josh,

        I always take into consideration the jockey on board ,think it was Frankie in one of his autobiographies said that if a jockey is “buzzing”and in form it transpires to the horse and they then beome as one.
        It works over the jumps for me ,always look see who`s in form from the top one`s and then work from there with the horses, trainer ,form etc.
        Just transferred it to the flat and it seems to be paying off.

  4. Think jockey on board can be difference between a head win and a head 2nd.Sammy Jo Bell on Royal Regent,perfectly placed behind 2 horses about to fold,was just waiting for her to switch to outer and cruise to victory,nope tries to go up the rail,gets baulked,meanwhile 2 others have come upside so outside switch option also gone,or maybe she hadn’t as much in tank as i thought to my eyes,always want a jockey that is among winners last weeks and good course record,Paddy Brennan is a master at Leicester but has dire record at Warwick,we spend a lot of time(well not me) looking at horses previous runs but rarely the jockey.If a jockey has a niggling injury,we dont hear that a jockey has been suffering from depression until he comes out of treatment

    1. They all do a fantastic job, like everyone else in racing it`s a team effort and i don`t think what happened to Andre Atzeni yesterday helps (somebody threw a plastic pint at his horse), or when that idiot threw something at A P when he was riding at Worcester some years ago ,that was definitely a punters pocket acting there!! (plus they probably can`t handle alchohol to any great extent and would rather waste it than drink it!!).
      Good on Frankie for standing down though, some may have carried on and punters would have been unaware, same with the mental side of it, tip my cap to those that “starve” themselves for our “pleasure”.

  5. Tojosimbre is the biggest steamer of the day, from 10/1 to 2/1. If only you could identify such value every day 🙂

    1. ha, well at least we have the value. Time will tell. That is always the aim John, but not easy. Hopefully worth the wait. Would be nice for a steamer to go in though.

      1. Well I like a good steamer when I’ve lumped on early doors it’s as short as 7/4 with some firms gamble on

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