Free Daily Post: 23/06/17 (complete)

micro angle + bet of the day.


Flat 2017: 60+ Days

5.35 Ascot – Red Galileo (14/1<) DNQ



Another ‘bet of the day’ from the Members’ post. I am on a bit of a losing run with these at the moment. Not quite as bad as Mr Pricewise mind! (48 and counting I believe)


(Members) Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/77, +25.3)

5.35 Ascot- Cape Cova – 1/2 point EW – 16/1 (BF/BV/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP*

Never travelled. May have hated visor, was held up which was a surprise. One to track given profile. That was an off day. Maybe needs to go LH but he was being niggled within first furlong. 

He looks interesting enough here. This is only his 10th run on the flat and there could be more to come at some point and possibly on this third run of the season. GF seems fine, he stays very well and should appreciate this stiff track. There is a strange lack of pace in this race on paper. The last day he tracked the leaders and with any luck TQ can get him out and up there. I don’t think you will want to be too far back here. If he can kick on at some point he should keep going and with 4 places looks worth an EW interest to my eyes. The visor also replaces the blinkers which is ‘doing something different’. He responded well to blinkers first time last season, and was a tad keen in them the last day. This switch may make a positive difference. He ticks a few boxes and is an interesting runner.



That will be all for today.

GL with any bets.


Post Comments

Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 responses

  1. 5.35 Ascot Duke Of Edinburgh

    20 years – 353 runners.

    No top 3 in latest three runs: 1/72
    0-1 career wins: 0/69
    0 handicap wins: 1/83
    Last run further than 1m4f: 1/59
    NOT aged 4-5: 0/66

    10 years-171 runners.
    No top 2 in latest 3 runs: 0/46
    Last run unplaced: 1/87.
    2 wins or more at 1m4f: 1/50
    0-1 places in handicaps: 0/33
    Last run NOT in class 2: 1/55
    Last run NOT in handicap race: 0/30

    Two which fit all of the above, I think, are Mainstream 11/2 and Eddystone Rock 25/1.
    Sky going a massive 6 places.

    Some close calls Master Carpenter, Wadigor, Sixties Groove, Rare Rhythm and Manjaam. Time beaten me to pick 1 or 2 from those tonight. Hopefully have a look tomorrow.


    1. UPDATE:
      Having already selected one at the head of the market, i will look beyond Wadigor and Sixties Groove. Of the others, Rare Rhythm looks the most interesting IMO at 25/1. Charlie Appleby has a decent strike rate of 42 % since 2015 in 1m4f 4yo+ handicaps. The horse run since this race last year when went off at 7/1 but was hampered.


  2. Albany Stakes
    Not sure if I’ll have time to get a full write up done tomorrow morning but worth noting that Ertiyad goes, one of my horses to follow.

    These were my comments after she pipped Out Of The Flames, (3rd in the Windsor Castle on Tuesday) on her debut at Ascot over 5f behind Mrs Gallagher. She then won at Haydock on soft over 6f and is one of the nicest fillies I have seen this year.

    Ertiyad – Medium sized, athletic. Best looker in the field, a bit green and clueless in the early stages which probably made the difference. More of the Rizeena model but not quite as rangy. Whilst Mrs G and the third, Out Of The Flames were both given reminders she received a hands and heels ride. 89

    Selection 1pt ew available widely at 16/1

  3. ASCOT 2.30 Albany:
    Race is impossible to assess accurately…but there are some clues…RP winners 2007-2016 SP of 16/1 max with one exception in 2007 with a 50/1 winner so those with price constraints plus two with notes and one 50/1 outsider with good speed figures here are the MPH with distances:
    Alpha Centauri 37.64 6f
    Clemmie 36.30 6f
    Fairyland 39.00 4.5f
    Natural 37.20 (speed adjusted to 6f as raced over 6.5f)
    Black Sails 37.00 6f
    Take Me With You 36.18 6f
    Ertiyad 36.79 6f
    Madeline 36.89 6f

    Snowflake — had no proper run on debut so impossible to assess speed but not ruled out
    Different League —- no course standard time to use as benchmark …the raw speed was 37.00 mph over 6f
    ****** Outsider @ 50/1 is Armum as clocked 37.85 mph over 6f…hope the above helps, gd lck.

  4. 3.40 Ascot:
    Concentrated on those at top of the Market so apologies if a rank outsider pops up:

    Carvaggio 39.00 6f
    Harry Angel 39.68 6f broke course record at Haydock by a second but has been beaten by Blue Print
    Blue Print 39.63 6f has beaten Harry Angel when latter pulled to hard
    Bound For Nowhere.40.16 over 5.5f…RPost comment was horse stayed on strongly…combination tricast???? with all 4 and hope the shortie gets beat and hope that one of the outsiders does not get into the frame??? gd lck

  5. 4.20 Ascot:
    Concentrated on top of market..again apologies if a rank outsider pops in:
    Winter 37.77 8f
    Dabyah 38.13 8f
    Precieuse 39.87 8f interesting horse though no standard time to compare speed but Qemah, last years winner ran at he same track before coming to Ascot and ran 38.05 mph so if a comparison can be drawn worth an e/w stab at 8/1
    Tomyris 37.00 8f

    gd lck

    1. it’s a members angle, will post a link up in there. You have access to the qualifiers etc within the members posts.

  6. With regard to Ertiyad I have her top on the algo alongside Clemmie, Madeline,Natural,Snowflakes and Starlight mystery. In addition to the e/w I have also done a combo trifecta Ertiyad, Natural and Alpha Centauri.

    In the 6.50 at Newmarket Invincible Army meets up with Tathmeen again. Tathmeen is one of my horses to follow. he is currently 11.5 on Bf. I would have preferred him not to be up against Invincible Army. I had OA on 92 and Tathmeen on 90. These are some of the highest I have given so far this season

    The Godolphin runner will have to be Group 3 level at least to beat the two with experience on debut so a reverse forecast looks to be a fair bet.
    Selection 1pt reverse forecast Tathmeen and Invincible Army.

    Below is my analysis from the day
    Masar review – A glorious day where the sunshine and good pictures tend to make them all look good, however it did seem a good-looking field. Ratings may err on the high side, time also impressive for a maiden. Kick On Kick On went a bit too fast early which perhaps set it up for the closers and had the side effect of breaking those who tried to go with him.
    Masar – Tall, strong athletic, gleaming coat. Very green early, and this some performance to get up from last at 2f out 94
    Invincible Army – Powerfully made, full medium, bit colty but not too bad. Also came from behind. Written up by RP as away slowly, it seemed to me that Martin Harley saw that Kirby was off at a 5f pace on KOKO and decided to settle IA instead. Then made up ground as the others at the front began to come under pressure. An efficient use of his animal and unfortunate to get mugged by Masar. 92
    Bartholomeu Dias – Deep chest, good shoulder, bit less behind, drawn wide,was up close to the pace yet still finished off well. 89
    Folk Tale – Medium but a bulkier model than the large Masar. Hard to say in the pre-parade who was going to be best. Folk Tale perhaps a shade less fit. Behind early then made ground on wide outside. Good effort. 89
    Montague – Bottom end of medium, very fit less scope than those who finished in front of him. Brave effort as he was up close to the pace, couldn’t get a gap at one stage and was hampered late on. 78
    Kick On Kick On – Smallest in field, very fit and ran a 5f pace early which did for him. Not disgraced but a bit out of his depth here. 75
    Tathmeen – Handsome, big athletic colt, still a bit rough in his coat on his flanks. Suffered, I think, a little from having Crowley aboard who is not at his best at Goodwood, only 8% on 2yos at Goodwood v 15% overall on turf. Not to say he is not tremendous improvement on his predecessor. He jumped off ok and pushed along a bit early, the horse then got lit up mid and did a bit too much in the middle of the race. He was then eased in good time though. Maybe more improvement in him than most. 90
    Another Day Of Sun – Cheap one bought for only 25k. Lower to mid medium, too free early, baulked late on and allowed to coast home. Instructive to look at his picture next to Masar as they are on almost the identical stride and similar shapes although ADOS is ¾ to 1 size smaller. ADOS’s coat is still to come through fully and he does not have quite the sheen of Masar. His muscle tone is also a little less defined. Possibly his neck is a little long for his frame in comparison and he does not give quite the impression of rib cage volume and power that Masar does. That said he does not look completely out of place and is a likeable type who will win races. My guess would be 82.
    Masked Defender – Another who repeatedly took the eye. Medium, carrying more condition than most and this took its toll late on when he dropped away. Trainer does not get them ready for debut and is 0/18 here as opposed to 6/73 overall. Looks good enough to win a race 75.
    Hornby – Lesser model than the rest but not as bad as most of Attwater’s are. He is 0/40 with 2yos last 5 seasons turf and aw. Had a 4to 2yo winner in 2005! Hornby might win a race in someone else’s hands. Lacks scope 67.

  7. Josh,
    don’t know how to break this to you, but Pricewise also tips your selection….

    1. Oh bugger!! that’s all i need haha. Well, he is due to break his losing spell at some point I suppose!

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