Flat 2017: 60+ days
5.15 Down R- Mystic Traveller (any odds)
9.05 Hayd – Big Tour (any odds)
- 18/21 Top 4 LTO
- 20/21 Age 4-6
- OR 107+: 0/35,7p
- 21/21 0/62,7p had 0-4 wins at distance (5+ 0/62,7p)
- 21/21 0-4 runs this season
that leaves a certain list…
- 10 years: 0 distance wins: 0/35, 7p (would remove Steady Pace 2nd /Harry Hurricane)
- Ran 1-20 days ago: 0/73,11p (removes Culturati)
I think that would leave: Donjuan Triumphant / Raucous / Shanghai Glory / Polybius / Muntadab / Amazour
Wokingham ‘test Tips’
Muntadab – 1 point EW – 22/1 (gen) (1/4, 5 places) UP
Amazour – 1 point win – 16/1 gen UP
Polybius – 1/2 point EW- 40/1 / 33/1 4th 40/1>33/1
(4 points total)
Well I will stick with the stats here as you know the moment I leave them and attempt to just look at the race ‘cold’ one of them will bolt up. Maybe.
Muntadab – well he hasn’t done much wrong here, get’s a top jockey on, and interestingly gets the visor. Hopefully he responds well to it and doesn’t do too much. He is only one of three front runners I can see in this- there are so many hold up types- to be frank IF he is going the speed Crowley wants and isn’t over-racing, I struggle to see him out of the top 5- based on the pace set up, his consistent big field form, and the fact he stays 7f. 22s seems big to my eye, cue tailed off last! Hopefully he isn’t marooned up the middle of the track, which seems to be the slowest- but you never know today, it may be the quickest strip! Crowley could decide to go either side. That decision may prove decisive.
Amazour- well he is in decent enough form but will need some pace to aim at. He faded over 6f here a while back but also race well enough in the Brittania one year. He is drawn low so that side is covered. He ticks the stats and is a decent price. I thought he may be doing his best work late but he may be on the fastest strip of turf. Birchwood and Steady Pace may take the lower numbers into it. Of course they could always be more aggressive on him. Worth a dart.
Polybuis- a big price and he ran well in Dubai for new connections. I struggle to see why he should do better than he did in the 2015 version but he may have strengthened more and in any case is 40/1, on the shortlist, and you can make some sort of case that he may out-run these odds. Worth a dart.
I was happy to leave the rest on the shortlist. We know what will happen now.
These are ‘test tips’ really, still to find a decent approach to these sprint handicaps. Think we are on 0/8, or maybe 0/10 ish this season.
That will be all for today.
GL with any bets.