MICRO ANGLES/SYSTEMS
Flat 2017: 60+ days
5.15 Down R- Mystic Traveller (any odds)
9.05 Hayd – Big Tour (any odds)
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Wokingham Handicap
- 18/21 Top 4 LTO
- 20/21 Age 4-6
- OR 107+: 0/35,7p
- 21/21 0/62,7p had 0-4 wins at distance (5+ 0/62,7p)
- 21/21 0-4 runs this season
that leaves a certain list…
- 10 years: 0 distance wins: 0/35, 7p (would remove Steady Pace 2nd /Harry Hurricane)
- Ran 1-20 days ago: 0/73,11p (removes Culturati)
I think that would leave: Donjuan Triumphant / Raucous / Shanghai Glory / Polybius / Muntadab / Amazour
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Wokingham ‘test Tips’
Muntadab – 1 point EW – 22/1 (gen) (1/4, 5 places) UP
Amazour – 1 point win – 16/1 gen UP
Polybius – 1/2 point EW- 40/1 / 33/1 4th 40/1>33/1
(4 points total)
Well I will stick with the stats here as you know the moment I leave them and attempt to just look at the race ‘cold’ one of them will bolt up. Maybe.
Muntadab – well he hasn’t done much wrong here, get’s a top jockey on, and interestingly gets the visor. Hopefully he responds well to it and doesn’t do too much. He is only one of three front runners I can see in this- there are so many hold up types- to be frank IF he is going the speed Crowley wants and isn’t over-racing, I struggle to see him out of the top 5- based on the pace set up, his consistent big field form, and the fact he stays 7f. 22s seems big to my eye, cue tailed off last! Hopefully he isn’t marooned up the middle of the track, which seems to be the slowest- but you never know today, it may be the quickest strip! Crowley could decide to go either side. That decision may prove decisive.
Amazour- well he is in decent enough form but will need some pace to aim at. He faded over 6f here a while back but also race well enough in the Brittania one year. He is drawn low so that side is covered. He ticks the stats and is a decent price. I thought he may be doing his best work late but he may be on the fastest strip of turf. Birchwood and Steady Pace may take the lower numbers into it. Of course they could always be more aggressive on him. Worth a dart.
Polybuis- a big price and he ran well in Dubai for new connections. I struggle to see why he should do better than he did in the 2015 version but he may have strengthened more and in any case is 40/1, on the shortlist, and you can make some sort of case that he may out-run these odds. Worth a dart.
I was happy to leave the rest on the shortlist. We know what will happen now.
These are ‘test tips’ really, still to find a decent approach to these sprint handicaps. Think we are on 0/8, or maybe 0/10 ish this season.
**
That will be all for today.
GL with any bets.
13 Responses
Evidently, the open age handicaps seem to much more suited to me.
3.05 Ascot Wolferton 1m2f
Last 15 years, involving 219 runners:
5-6yo: 1/91
5 or more 1m2f runs: 1/87 (first running in 2002 the only winner)
NOT ran in a 13k-50k top prize race last time out: 1/75 (back in 2003).
10 years, 135 runners:
More than 3 places over 1m2f: 0/35
More than 4 handicap race places: 1/54
Had to ignore Kidnemever who has done almost all his running abroad so leaves us with Muntazah 22/1, Khairaat 4/1, Dragon Mall 16/1.
🙂
Hi Chris,what happens when you factor in weight to your analysis of the 3.05?
Thanks
Jarrod
Hi Jarrod
No real pattern. Pretty well spread out top to bottom, from what I can see.
🙂
Hi Chris, thanks for that.
Would love you to cast your eye over the 5.20 NEW, 4.50 AYR ,3.15 RED and 5.10 RED…..to see what you come up with. If you have time that is.
Sorry, no time today to look into those. Also, I’m not sure there would be enough data for those races available.
Nice to see that shortlist for the Wokingham Josh since I had Muntadab and Raucous before I saw that. Both have eye-catching jockey bookings. Both Haggas and Fell are in good form. Both horses are in the top 3 of the GGG speed ratings and at the top end of the HRB ratings (2nd and 6th). Both have first time headgear on so they are doing something different. There isn’t a massive amount of pace on here which made me wary of touching anything drawn high. I can see Muntadab making all here like Zhui Feng did in the Hunt Cup. Raucous is drawn near the pace ran really well in last year’s Stewards Cup from a bad draw which was the last time he was in one of these big fields. He got within 2 lengths of the 120 rated Shalaa over course and distance last October off level weights. This is one of his targets this season.
I also think Tin Man is one of those e/w bets bookies really hate in the Diamond Jubilee. He gets his ideal ground, loves it around here and is drawn close to the pace. Limato could destroy these and something else might come out of the pack but I would be amazed if he is out of the front 4.
well done Nick, went in with you on The Tin Man, little EW tickle. Limits any potential damage coming up haha.
Thanks. Slightly annoyed Ryan Moore took Raucous towards those drawn high since fairly certain the pace was on the other side but profit is profit.
Wokingham
(545 runners – 21 winners in 20 years (dead heat in 2003))
age 7 or older: 1/111
last run , NOT top 6 : 1/179
last three, no top 4: 1/104
last five, no top2 : 1/126
lifetime runs,more than 25: 1/183
more than 10 runs in class 2 or higher: 1/154
more than 10 places in handicaps : 0/99
last win , NOT 6f or 7f: 0/125
10 years -266 runners
age NOT 4-5: 1/108
more than 10 runs at 6f:1/127
more than 10 placed runs : 1/108
LR NOT 20-50 days ago:1/95
Think Projection (8/1) is the only one that ticks every single box.
About 7 , i think, who miss out by just one trend: Certificate, Raucous, Steady Pace,Shanghai Glory, Edward Lewis, Muntadab, Amazour.
Hopefully, try and look through later to see what pops out from those.
🙂
Some terrific work this week Chris…Win or lose…..Very much appreciated.
BOL lad.
Tony Mc.
UPDATE :
Latest win on AW 0/59
Latest win non-handicap 3/165. (Last 10 years 1/86)
Think that leaves us with Certificate (20/1) , Edward Lewis (16/1) and Muntadab (25/1).
With Steady Pace in the unknown box much like Con Te Partiro the other day…..
🙂
Royal Ascot last day
after yesterday i really should give up but here goes anyway.
2-30. September to win, Westerland ew, Di Fide tiny ew.
3-05. Central Square and Khairaat look the 2 to beat.
3-40. Dartmouth looks a worthy fav and Western Hymn could be the value.
4-20.Tasleet has a good chance in this and Windfast could lead and hold on for a place at a big price.
5-00. wide open race very difficult to narrow it down but i’m going to plump for Intisaab and Muntadab.
5-35. i’ll take a chance on Qewy @ 5-1
good luck all.
So disastrous have my selections been this week that I am reluctant to bok anyone else’s selections.
Just a note to say that Match Maker is on my horses to follow list. Comment from race where he finished behind Westerland and Hey Gaman below. The 4.25 scorers on the algorhythm are Learn By Heart, Westerland, Di Fede, and September.
Match Maker – More compact and slightly lower slung than the first two. Medium. Tremendous stride at the walk, had to be niggled from an early stage as he ran green. Don’t think the stick was used and he was very purposeful toward the finish. Improve over further maybe past Westerland and Hey Gaman. 84.
Hugh