Members Daily Post: 23/06/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

FLAT 

Redcar

2.55 –

Celestation (all hncp + 3yo+) I3 G3 2/1 UP

Island Flame (micro runs) I1 H3 11/2 UP

3.30 – Town Charter (all+ 3yo+) H3 5/4 UP

Ascot

5.35 –

Cape Cova (all hncps+micro going+age) 16/1 UP

Red Galileo (micro 90 days) 40/1 UP

Bath

6.10 –

Russian Reward (micro going) H3 I3  4/1 UP

Saint Helana (4yo+) G3  11/1 UP

Newmarket

5.50- Trulee Scrumptious (all hncps) H3 I1 G1  11/2 WON 11/2>7/2

Ayr

6.30 –

Colour Contrast (4yo+) H1  7/2 3rd 

Whitechurch (4yo+) 12/1 UP

7.05 – Royal Regent (3yo+)  ES    H3 I3 5/1 UP (3rd) 

8.10 –

Explain (micro distance) I3 14/1 2nd 16/1

Harwoods Volante (micro age)  ES    H3 I3  11/1 UP

9.15 –

Royal Dutchess (3yo+) ES    I3 G3  10/1 UP 8/1

Newmarket Warrior (micro class) 12/1 UP

JUMPS

Market R 

3.55 –

Creevytennant (hncp chase) 14 10/1 UP

Viens Chercher (micro dist) I3  10/3  UP

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KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

ES – ‘Elite Squad’ qualifiers from the report HERE

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/55, +24.5) (total: 10/77, +25.3)

5.35 Ascot- Cape Cova – 1/2 point EW – 16/1 (BF/BV/WH) 14/1 (gen) UP

Never travelled. May have hated visor, was held up which was a surprise. One to track given profile. That was an off day. Maybe needs to go LH but he was being niggled within first furlong. 

He looks interesting enough here. This is only his 10th run on the flat and there could be more to come at some point and possibly on this third run of the season. GF seems fine, he stays very well and should appreciate this stiff track. There is a strange lack of pace in this race on paper. The last day he tracked the leaders and with any luck TQ can get him out and up there. I don’t think you will want to be too far back here. If he can kick on at some point he should keep going and with 4 places looks worth an EW interest to my eyes. The visor also replaces the blinkers which is ‘doing something different’. He responded well to blinkers first time last season, and was a tad keen in them the last day. This switch may make a positive difference. He ticks a few boxes and is an interesting runner.

Notes.. well of the rest… there are three ES qualifiers (the orange clashed with the red pointers) who all seem to have some sort of chance. I would think the penalty may stop Royal Regent but i could be wrong. The 8.10 has that typical ‘take it in turns’ sprint feel to it, albeit Balding sends an unexposed one a long way who heads the market. No result would be a total shock in that one. Royal Dutchess ticks a few boxes and wont mind the forecast rain (that shouldn’t inconvenience any of them really) and there looks to be some pace to aim at. 

Trulee Scrumptious WON (hope you read this bit. Another win for ‘double double’ top rated. I did get off the fence, hope you did!)  – it is just about fitness with her I think. If she is race ready I think he makes all and wins this. She is the only pace angle and should be able to dominate. She has won after 170 odd days rest before but not quite this long, her last two reappearances a bit underwhelming. But, not without a chance and is double top rated at least. She should give backers a run at least until 7f out. I was a bit on the fence. Maybe I should get off it. 11/2 will look good if fit.

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June Trainers

3.55 MR – Earthmoves (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 7/2>3/1

8.10 Ayr  – Giant Spark (18/1<)

(research HERE>>>)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

JAMIE SPENCER… (ahhh…)

Any of you who read my Royal Hunt Cup preview may have noted, prior to fancying El Vip, how I had a look at Spencer over 8f at Ascot, in handicaps. Before that race he was 5/24,13 places, +31 SP.

Decent stats those. How about following them as a micro angle?!!

If only. El Vip lost. Since then he has ridden two winners over the 8f at the meeting priced 20/1 and 25/1 (40s in morning). Gulp. I don’t want to know the BFSPs. Oh to have put £5, or £10 EW on both of those. Next time. I don’t think he plans on retiring again anytime soon.

If you want a jockey micro angle to follow that one may not be a bad place to start! There is no fluke to those stats. He settles horses superbly and benefits from those at the front going toio quick – most of the time. Of course when there isn’t much pace on he is in trouble. But, from now on… Spencer / Ascot / 8f / Handicaps / EW

Those stats are now something like: 7/27, 15 places, +76 SP. Blimey.

It just has to be followed I think. After the Lord Mayor’s show and all that. He will have a shocker of a run now. But keep an eye on it.

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ROYAL ASCOT: Day 4 

Re-cap: A decent day for the micro portfolio, having been on -7  they are now on +17, if you had backed the lot. That should ensure that a ‘systematic’ approach may finish ahead but there are plenty of potentials below. Profit at these meetings is usually made by nabbing the odd decent priced winner and it may well pay to just trust the stats on those. I am my own worst enemy most of the time, betting wise. Of course, as predicted, Sioux Nation was bound to hack up given he was the only micro qualifier I didn’t ‘tip’! Plonker. In any case I gave you enough warnings and I hope you may have had a nibble. 🙂 Anyway. I will keep attempting to be selective with ‘fancies’ and you can use the info as you please. Hopefully there is another biggie somewhere over the next two days. On we go…

Micro Systems

AOB 1 (any odds)

2.30 – Actress UP / Clemmie UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide)

2.30 – Actress UP/ Clemmie UP / Snowflakes UP

3.40 – Caravaggio WON Evens>5/6/ Intelligence Cross UP

GOSDEN (any odds)

3.05 – Glencadam Glory UP / Khalidi 2nd 20/1>10/1 (arguably should have won that)

STOUTE (12/1<)

3.05 – Crystal Ocean 3rd

5.35 – Mainstream

COX (16/1<)

3.40 – Harry Angel 2nd 10/3 / Tis Marvellous DNQ

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Notes (against stats)

3.05 – Permian (if 6/1<) WON 6/1

4.20 – Dabyah UP

5.00 – Face The Facts UP/ Stradivarius WON 8/1>11/2 / Time To Study DNQ (6/1<.. Johnston 4/7 with such fancied ones) (now 5/8)

5.35 – Cape Cova

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My Fancies

Running Total: 1/12, 4 places, +1 point (oh to have put 1/2 point EW on AOBs big winner. Next time. I’m picturing Mozzer shaking his head in disgust 🙂 ) 

Nothing leaping out at me today, ‘tipping wise’ from the main micros- Clemmie and Crystal Ocean look the most likely winners from that list, with Harry Angel not far behind. I have put a muggy 20/1 double on the first of those two for interest. Maybe one of the AOB biggies will win again, and probably wise I take some covering fire, but they really do need to step up on what they have shown so far, into this G3. He is a master though, and they are all unexposed. Maybe the 66/1 shot can hit the frame. Mainstream looks to have a chance but at 5/1 in a race of that nature I would rather leave. (Update: Just read Ryan Moore’s column…and he sounds confident enough on this one, thinks well handicapped etc) The 3.40 could well be the race of the week and you get the feeling we may see something special. One to just watch and enjoy maybe. Hopefully Harry Angel can give the fav plenty to think about.

That’s the lot for today. GL with any bets.

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