Free Daily Post: 19/06/17 (complete)

3x horses of interest…

No systems/angles.

 

Horses of Interest…

3.30 Carlisle- Celtic Artisan – 5/1… UP looks an interesting pace angle as I suspect they may try and make all here. The horse returns to the flat after an OK run LTO over hurdles. But before that he was running well, just losing narrowly at Pontefract having made most of the running. He gets 7lb off his back here from a jockey who has made all on him before. The trainer’s horses are in form and he stays well. With any luck he gets an easy enough lead.

6.00 Notts- Just For Fun 6/1… UP Fahey is 7/19,10 places, +21 with 1st time out two year olds at the course in the last 5 years. And that is all we have to go on really. Market may well guide

8.45 Windsor- African 12/1… WON 12/1>7/1 looks interesting for C Fellowes who in the last two seasons (well since he started his trainer career maybe) is 4/12,9 places with stable newcomers having their first start for him. He is also 10/37,25 places with all runners returning after 60+ days off the track so can clearly ready them. This one is well bred and I am sure he will find the key at some point. The market may guide but is an EW price and a couple of those stats are interesting enough.

**

That’s all for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

11 Responses

  1. 19th June Windsor 5f Nov
    4.25 Demons Rock
    3.75 Expecting, Zalshah, Time For Wine, Zain Smarts
    3.5 Iconic Knight
    3.25 Gotti, Indian Warrior
    3 Cent Flying
    2.75
    2.5 Lastoneforthecraic
    2.25
    2
    Preview – On my ratings Expecting should win this, however my form seems terrible at present.
    Selection 1pt win Expecting

    Prior race notes
    Demon’s Rock – Another heavily built small one, looked capable of a bit better than this. 66
    Demons Rock – Chunky as described, looking very fit, did not get the best start and chances perhaps compromised by that but never really looked like getting to Roussel. 66
    Expecting – Not a dis-similar model to Buridan, possibly slightly more scope. Not as fit and ran out of puff as expected in the latter stages. 78
    Gotti – Just ordinary and seems a difficult type 68
    Indian Warrior – Lesser model, top end of small, stuck on well, 70

    1. The writing was on the wall when I spoke to the owners of Expecting who told me he was still weak. Ran a good race, I thought Gavin Lerena’s skills were exposed as wanting by Doyle and Gerald Mosse as they went either side of him as he became unbalanced and flailing about.

      Can’t get out of my own way at the moment. I hope Ascot brings a change of fortune!
      Hugh

  2. 19th June Windsor 6f Seller
    4.25
    3.75 Bumble Beeze, Shovel It On, Tie Em Up tel
    3.5
    3.25 The Kiddie Kid, Runthatbymeagain
    3
    2.75 Roses In June
    2.5 Give Em A Clump, Mirek
    2.25
    2 Quick Skips Lad
    Preview – Looking for the best of a bad lot here. Most over-rated by me in early season and I doubt any of them are really 60s.

    Prior race notes
    Shovel It On – Probably flattered by his finishing position as he stayed on as others faded. One of Dave Evan’s electric mice. Easy to see him whizzing around an aw track 2to. Not tiny like Airshow. 60
    Tie Em Up Tel – Same ownership as Give Em A Clump and I wouldn’t be surprised if Adam Kirby didn’t after this farce. Perhaps David Evans does not train them around a bend? Very untypical to be fair. He looks anxious in the photo and it seems it was all too much. Looks a bit down at the shoulder but a strong back end and did show some early pace. Unrateable really but could surprise on a straight track. 60
    Roses In June – Ill made type. 48
    Give Em A Clump – Another kept rugged and hard to assess, looks a bit lacking behind. Ran very green and never put in race, attempts by Kirby to hit him looked like airshots. Enough size to think he is better than this but hard to come to a verdict given how badly he ran. Might be ok but 65 for now is flattering what he showed here.
    Quick Skips Lad – Plain individual, chunky in a small frame. This was his third go and will need to find a weaker aw race. 60

  3. 5.00 Ascot Stakes (2m4f)

    Past 20 years stats involving a mammoth 451 runners!

    Latest five runs, NO top 2 : 1/92 (1.1%).
    Runs in last 365 days, 4 or less: 1/86.
    Latest win was 2 runs ago: 0/63. (killer stat for the 7/2 fav Thomas Hobson?)

    Career wins 0-1: 1/94
    11 or more runs since last win: 0/50
    Last run not in Class 2-4: 0/55
    LR less than 1m6f: 1/75
    LR NOT top 10: 0/55
    LR >45 days ago: 1/69

    Latest win on the AW: 0/37
    Latest win in class 1-2 0/70.

    I *think* it leaves Magic Circle (12/1) ,High Secret (20/1) and Cosmelli. Cosmelli is there more by default as most of his running has been in Italy so very difficult to assess accurately with these trends.

    Of the ones which missed out by one trend (2/3/5/9/12/14) one worth siding with could be Star Rider(33/1) IMO. Kirby and Morrison are 2 from 3 this year.

    🙂

  4. hi josh

    apparently since 2010, any runner @ royal ascot that ran in a graded race at either cheltenham, aintree, punchestown spring festival have won 4 from 11 races, + 42 level profit. look worth a bet. do you have quick way of finding or do i have to check every runner on racing post web site?

    1. Hi Malcolm, that from Gavin’s site isn’t it? I don’t know if he is planning on posting qualifiers.

      I can probably add into HRB, will have a go. In reality you are only talking about a couple of the long distance races and focusing on the NH trainers. (can’t think any of the 5f-12f horses have ran in the jumps spring festivals, but could be wrong) Shouldn’t take very long to find them.
      Josh

      1. That’s going to effect the long distance races largely but there are at least 5 qualifiers in the 17:00 without having a look at all the runners so doesn’t really narrow things too much.

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