Members Daily Post: 20/06/17 (complete)

Quals+ratings pointers,+ Royal Ascot Zone, Day 1 + June

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers

 

FLAT 

Thirsk

2.10 –

Lady Grand (2yo) 7/2 UP

Javelin (2yo) 4/1 UP

4.35 – Carthage (micro runs)  G1 14/1 UP

 

Ascot

none.

 

Brighton

7.40- Live Dangerously (4yo+) H3 I3 G3  11/4

8.10 – Jersey Breeze (3yo+, + micro runs) G1 4/1

 

Beverley 

8.00 – Tellovoi (micro going) H3 I1 10/1

8.30 –

Tin Pan Alley (all hncps) 16/1

All You (4yo+) I3 9/1

Lean On Pete (4yo+) I1 8/1

 

SUMMER JUMPS 

Stratford

5.20 – Istimraar (micro going) I1* 12/1

*(Inform Speed ratings in the dock generally,esp jumps/summer jumps. I plan to have an idea of how they may be getting on when pulling together jumps results update later this week) 

**

KEY:

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

I1/I3 =  Inform Racing Speed Ratings – Top Rated or Top 3

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

**

2.Any ‘Notes’ (‘bet of the day’ + any other notes)

Bet of The Day…  (test) (Flat: 2/22,12p, +1.8) (Jumps: 8/54, +25.5) (total: 10/76, +26.3)

No bet of the day on Tuesday, having had a flick through all the runners.

 

#1 Strategy?… I am hoping that for the Flat this may be Top rated (H1,I1,G1) 6/1+ morning prices. They were 43 bets / 7 wins / 18 places (inc wins) +25.5 morn|BOG / +17 BFSP 

  • Bigger than 16/1 morn prices: 0/7, 3 places 

That was up until the 6th June. Since then, an including the 19th  they are 0/14 I think. Safe to say the Flat approach isn’t living up to much at the moment, from every angle. (albeit that is still an 19 % ROI from #1 strat and at those odds there will be odd losing run. A few close placed horses but a winner or two would now be welcome)

I’ll wait for Royal Ascot to get out the way before pondering further. Finding ‘systematic’ approaches is a bit tough at the moment.

I do plan to go through all the TTP flat stats and pull out a ‘premium’ portfolio – a small collection of what look the best stats based on decent sized stats pools etc. That could give us a collection of micros to have more confidence in and follow systematically.

In the meantime I will attempt to put more effort into the ‘big meeting’ notes , given the success they have had at finding decent priced winners esp Chester and York.

**

JUNE TRAINERS

3.30 Strat- Play The Ace (any odds, 13/2< best) WON 15/2>11/2 (15pR4, 6/1)

2.45 Thirk- Groundworker (18/1<) UP

**

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

ROYAL ASCOT 2017 

Trainer Report: READ HERE>>>

** I have added into the micro portfolio below an angle from last year’s report.. AOB, 5-7f, G1+2+3+Listed / 20/1< (guide) 10/41, 21 places. That is AOB 2 below

**

 

ROYAL ASCOT ZONE

Day 1

Micro Systems

AOB 1 (any odds)

  • 5.35: Declaration f Peace UP

AOB 2 (20/1< guide)

  • 3.05: Murillo 3rd/ U S Navy Flag DNQ
  • 3.40: Washington Dc UP
  • 5.35: Declaration of Peace UP

COX (16/1<)

  • 3.05: Prince of The Dark UP
  • 3.40: Priceless  UP / Profitable 2nd

**

Notes

(from other bullet points in report above)

2.30 – none. The likes of Hannon/Hills need market support, Cowell has a 200/1 shot. (‘all’ his runners to be noted)

3.05 –

Arawak  UP /  Nebo (14/1<) UP

3.40 –

Lady Aurelia WON 7/2  / Goldream UP/ Ornate

4.20 – Peace Envoy (AOB Dundalk first run)

5.00-

Thomas Hobson WON 6/1>4/1

5.35 –

Elizabeth Darcy  UP/ Nootka Sand UP

**

Trainers In Form

Who is ‘in form’ going into this, using the Geegeez metrics as noted in the ‘Key’. I will note any with runners on Day 1, with a 14 or a 14,30

R Cowell/R Varian/W Haggas/C Appleby/W Muir/S Dow/D Pipe/W Mullins/P Nicholls/N Henderson/G Scott/O Burrows.

**

My Fancies

Well this is a bit of fun..there are much better tipsters than I in high grade flat racing albeit a 12/1 winner on the free post at Windsor has lifted my betting mood a little. The idea is to trust the stats above as a starting point. Now I rarely head under 6/1 ‘tipping’ wise in general so I am not sure why I would do that at Royal Ascot. Backing 9/2, 7/2 shots in 16+ runner races is something I find challenging.

Declaration of Peace may well bolt up in the last but he is 7/2 , 4/1 which seems about right/short enough.

The three, at the odds, who I will have a small nibble on…

3.05- Murillo 7/1 – (3rd 8/1) 1 point win – you would like to see him backed but AOB has big priced winners here. He qualifies on a micro and he has this race 8 times, inc 3 of the last 6. At 7/1 that seems like a bet to me.

3.40 – Profitable (2nd 16/1>14/1)/ Gold Dream UP- both 1/2 point EW-  I am going to have a small EW nibble on these two. They are the only G1 winners in the field (won the last two renewals between them) albeit clearly there are a handful of exciting, progressive horses in the line up. I think I heard Cox say Profitable needed his last run and will come on for it. His yard form is a small concern. Gold Dream – well he likes this rattling fast ground and I suspect this has been the target. He may just be a shade below a couple in here but the yard couldn’t be in better form and he should run his race, hopefully placing at worst.

Any best bets from the Royal Ascot stats qualifier?

**

That will be all for Day 1. I will try and did out a few trends/stats snippets from Day 2 onwards.

**

Do you have any main RA fancies you wish to share?

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Oooops,
    They got you ……..how do I get smiley thingies on here?

    Javelin joins Lady Grand in the 2.10

    Mike

  2. royal ascot day 1
    gonna test myself see if i can get any winners
    2.30 american patriot 25/1
    3.05 denaar 9/1
    3.40 ardhoomey 25/1
    4.20 churchill 4/6
    5.00 oceane 12/1
    5.35 corinthia knight 14/1….simmys copshop 12/1

  3. Tuesday selections at Ascot:

    3.05 Romanised – each way; 3.45 Medicean Man & Goldream both each way; 5.00 Beyond Conceit win; 5.35 Declaration of Peace win and James Garfield each way.

    Some nice prices there. Good luck.

  4. I’m also kind of disappointed by the results. I mean, shouldn’t the micro systems make lots of money even without the ratings pointers? E.g. we find that some trainer runs at 100% roi and 25% strike rate for 5 years based on some criteria, but when we back that angle there’s just loss after loss and we’re lucky to break even – we need third party stats about top rated horses to make some profit. What am I missing here? How can a 100% roi angle suddenly make losses, unless we add the G1, H1, I1 filters?

    1. Hi John,
      Firstly it is early days for the Flat and up until the last results update on 6th June (Results tab above,full spreadsheets etc) ‘backing all’ qualifiers was profitable. As with any angles with no odds caps,and as with the jumps, that bottom line is dependent on a few big priced winners.

      The TTP stats have to perform to some degree without the use of ratings pointers,yep. That is the aim as that is the foundation. But any strategy based around ratings pointers that works should give long term confidence as they are a horse based constant in terms of methodology etc.

      In terms of the stats pack… clearly they are made up of many micros. Maybe too many I am not sure. But if you were to look at each micro separately (trainer>track>4yo+) a losing run of 5-10+ say could be expected. It’s when many of those mini losing runs converge and come in bulk that it can get painful in the short term. As we know from the winter stats the peaks can be very high and the troughs very low. Jan to April there were two mad months and two shockers which evened out to be decent enough. (On the backing all approach)

      The success of the geegeez speed stats over jumps gave me some optimism that they and any other ratings may help. Remember these are trainer based stats not horse related. The ratings were introduced to add some sophistication to the process and to type and give us an edge. Also all qualifiers for jumps in the 10/-25/1 range had also done very well, in terms of profit/ROI. The winning range for flat so far of 6/-16/1 hasn’t had anywhere near that success.

      With all TTP stats my idea has been to move away from rigid trainer track based systems. .. back horse aged x over distance x,class x at said track for example. More to get a substantial set of singular angles from which we can build. The no. Of winners, win %, place % , overall profit, up to 6th June for flat gave some hope that this will be achieved.

      I also hoped that the bet of the day,any other trainer angles/monthly, race stats/trends, monthly articles and the approach to ‘big meetings’ may have added a level of value to your experience also. But clearly some work to do on all fronts. If you did just look at official ‘members only tips’ since start of Chelt Festivall, and inc bet of day test,that is around +89 points or so. Albeit that is more a hopeful indication for the future than an expectation that you backed all of those)

      I have a belief in my general approach and with hard graft we will get there. This game isn’t easy but patience will be rewarded. And I will find a systematic approach to make TTP flat work,that is an enjoyable experience. So far it has been far from ideal,or maybe a bit crap.

      Hopefully the rest of the content is also deemed useful and as always an suggestions on such are welcome.

      Josh

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