Ah well Harry Hurricane nearly won for the sprint stats/trends – i thought he had it but may have hit the front too soon, pulling himself up a tad or just running out of steam. One of those. Still, a decent run. Nearly.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Flat 2017: 60+ Days
5.20 Cork – Covetous (25/1< best)
**
Nothing else jumping out at me today.
8 Responses
3.45 Salisbury
Looked through last 15 years involving 108 runners.
Aged 6 or older: 1/33 (so 3% vs 19% aged 3-5).
NOT ran between 5-10 days over past 12 months: 1/36
NO top 3 in three recent runs: 1/27.
NOT ran between 5-25 times in career: 1/32
NOT won between 3-10 times in career : 1/29.
NOT ran 6f between 4-25 times: 1/27.
Last run was in a handicap race: 1/20.
Mr Lupton is the only one passes all the trends but he is 7/4.
Of the others Mythmaker (9/2) and Dark Shot (10/1) are the closest so they look the best ones to play.
Glass Office looked interesting coming back from a 729 day lay off – Simcock has 2nd highest strike rate with horses returning from between 1 and 2 year lay off (min 10 runners) over past few years – but his price has doubled from 10/1 overnight.
🙂
Josh, you looked very unlucky with Hurricane Harry. Much less painful being boxed in and having no clear run as that’s the nature of the 5f sprints!
Yep… One of those! Wheelan a jumps jockey having a dabble on the flat but had done ok from a few limited rides… the horse was much further forward than I expected and it is possible if ridden by someone else he probably would have been further back and ran into a wall of horses! In an ideal world he would have had cover for longer but he had to go for the gap when it was there – winner received a decent ride.. that is the nature of those races, all split second decisions and why you want a decent price. Loads of carnage on the rail no doubt, I need to watch it again and see if anything worth tracking.
Yep the nature of those races, you don’t need many to go in at a decent price over time and it is still a ‘test’ for me- last season questionable, and so far this season haven’t hit the board either from a few darts.
Well done with your big winner yesterday – just goes to show that even 1-3 decent stats can lead to an interesting shortlist…
Good luck in race above… I did have a quick look at Mythmaker- he could be the pace angle and should be able to lead, probably up against the rail if getting out- that will help him- wasn’t sure if had the class and trainer’s form a slight niggle – in content of being 9/2. But my judgement at that end can be poor, may turn out to be a decent price. Looks competitive little race.
18th June Salisbury 6f Novice
4.25 Luna eclipse
3.75 London’s Burning
3.5
3.25 Ragstone View, Shabaaby, Billesdon Brook, Nyaleti
3
2.75
2.5 Alba Power
2.25 Watheer
2
Preview – I liked Luna Eclipse on debut and given normal improvement 2to he should take this.
Selection Luna Eclipse 1 pt win.
Prior race notes
Luna Eclipse – Calling and very green in the paddock, well made attractive and rangy type. 75
Hugh
4.00 Doncaster
(Race only started in 2008 so only 9 winners, 123 runners)
Aged 7 or older: 1/31.
Ran further than 7f in career: 1/41.
Not ran 1-4 times in last 90 days: 0/25
NO place in last three runs: 1/46
Last time out NOT in top 7: 1/53
I think that leaves the 11/4 favourite Evergate and Iseemist who is as big as 22/1.
Those with only one class 3 or higher win are 0/41 so along with his short enough price the favourite is discounted.
Of the others, Pipers Note, Red Pike, Zanetto, Bossipop and Scofflaw only miss out by one trend i think. Preference of those is for Piper’s Note who is a 7yo. However, since 2014, the trainer Ruth Carr has had more winners in 6f/7f handicaps with horses aged 7 or older than anyone else so worth siding with Pipers Note too at 8/1 IMO.
🙂
Hello, regarding the stats reports,would I be right presuming the 3 year old only handicaps are covered in the 3 year old + section thanks
Hi Michael…
In short.. no. 3yo+ races are handicaps open to horses aged 3yo and older. They are very different from 3 yo only races, which are not covered in the main Summer Stats pack and are usually clearly defined… there is a ‘bonus’ guide at the end for 3YO only races, for three tracks in particular where certain trainers have decent records.
Josh
Thanks for reply .