TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.50 Strat- One For The Boss (16/1<)
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PACE WINS THE RACE (Test)
I am going to revive this old area of interest, pull my finger out, and attempt to come out in front (over time) by homing in on those runners that look likely to get an easy lead, and with any luck may stay there all the way…
To kick this off I am just going to repeat my ‘bet of the day’ from the Members Post, as the final tick in his box was that I think he could get an easy enough lead here, if he wants it. This ‘tipping test’ is now 8/50, +35 points to 1 point win bets, and I will be doing my best to maintain that 70% ROI! (that could be a hard task)
8.20 Windsor – Cape Discovery – 1 point win – 8/1 (general)
8/1 seems rather big here to my eye. He ticks plenty of boxes. He is 2/5 on the turf and there could be more to come at some point, those two wins at this course, one over CD. He has won at the course, class and distance (well,over 12f) and he is 1lb below his last winning mark. 14 days ago he returned here after a three month break and he led for a way- he then got in a pace battle, led again, before fading. Evidence suggests that he may have done too much on the front end, and in any case may have needed the run to a point. Having looked at the pace I think the lead is his if he wants it, if the oppo adopt usual tactics, which you hope is the case. Of course something else may try and take him on but hopefully he can dictate. He doesn’t have to lead and in any case will be in the right spot, no excuses. Something else in here could have more in hand- Hannon’s maybe- but at 8/1 I won’t be talking myself out of a bet based on fear of the oppo, that isn’t the point really. He should be spot on here and provided he doesn’t go too quick again (which in any case could be a tactic to help get his mark down!) he should be thereabouts.
Of Interest… The other pace horse of interest looks to be ICE GALLERY in the 4.00 Ayr – he is the only one in here who does like to get on with it. 7/2 is just a bit too short for me. Were he 5s+ I would have made him a bet. He used to lead for his old connections, this being his second run for the yard. Given they move him up in trip i did just wonder whether they may keep hold of him, to ensure he gets home. Or, alternatively, they trust their judgement on his stamina (breeding suggests he should enjoy every yard) and instruct Lee to get on with it, stack them up, and then kick for home. He may come on for his last run at Donny, fitness wise, and ran there as if he was crying out for a go at this trip. My judgement at the top end of the market is rubbish and he may well hack up now, but isn’t ‘officially’ a test tip for Pace Wins The Race, as the price is just on the short side for me. But he should go well
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7 Responses
Good luck with the pace angle. I sure that you are on to something at some tracks and there is one other element that I have always thought really improves the chances of front runners winning and that is Good to Firm Going.
At several tracks when it is Good to Firm, a nice draw, early pace and getting the fractions right seems to be a big asset but mainly on Good to Firm, Nottingham; Catterick; Pontefract and Chester spring to mind.
Chester will be most interesting this week as it looks like the first year in quite a while where the Going is not soft there.
Good Luck
The same theory can be applied to
Leopardstown. There’s a draw bias to stall 1-5 as the rail is faster when it’s good to firm. See custom cut and geological wins. Haven’t had the chance to look into it further to see if distances or class affects this but the 2 races I mentioned where 7f/1m and CL1 and hcap.
I agree with you Ian. Provided they don’t over water as did Cheltenham last week. It makes having a firm going horse obselete. Imagine Crisp now….Never would have saw the national…. never mind being the fastest. gripe finished. lol
Willie Watch
After the first few weeks of the flat,my conclusion is that its rubbish,but have to find something to fill in the months until the evenings shorten again and the jumps returns.
So I will be doing something similar to Paddy Watch,but staying this side of the water.
The trainer in this postings is Willie McCreery,having looked at his 4yo+ profit over the last 5 seasons of +117,the bookies haven’t as yet close cottoned on to this one just yet and there might be some profit to be extracted from his runners,
The odds criteria will be the same
3/1-5/1 1/2 point win
11/2-10/1 1 point win
10+ 1/2 point e/w
His first runner today is Zamira 6pm Roscommon 1/2 point win 3/1
Hi Josh,
Re Cape Discovery, hope he gets up to win but not sure about his running
on GF. He was over 6 lengths off winner his only time over GF although he went off a bit too fast
and probably just ran out of puff.
My system gives Priors Brook..5/1 and has won over GF and come close two other times.
Cheers
Stuart
Hi Stuart,
Good luck – yep, with him the going is an unknown, I wasn’t going to not bet at 8s, on that basis, given he has only ran on it once. There were valid non ground excuses the last day I think, as touched on. But, maybe he doesn’t like good to firm- I would like to think if that was the case he wouldn’t be running today- jockey would have reported he didn’t handle it and horse may have come back sore from that last run. At that price you have to overlook something, and the unknown about going is his. Hard to make a call at the moment as to going pref. And, trusting any going desc fully is always fraught with danger! Josh
Hi Josh,
I see both trainers chickened their runners out due unsuitable ground.
You came close with Ice Galley though. Will watch these pace posts with interest.
Cheers Stuart