Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.50 Strat- One For The Boss (16/1<)
PACE WINS THE RACE (Test)
I am going to revive this old area of interest, pull my finger out, and attempt to come out in front (over time) by homing in on those runners that look likely to get an easy lead, and with any luck may stay there all the way…
To kick this off I am just going to repeat my ‘bet of the day’ from the Members Post, as the final tick in his box was that I think he could get an easy enough lead here, if he wants it. This ‘tipping test’ is now 8/50, +35 points to 1 point win bets, and I will be doing my best to maintain that 70% ROI! (that could be a hard task)
8.20 Windsor – Cape Discovery – 1 point win – 8/1 (general)
8/1 seems rather big here to my eye. He ticks plenty of boxes. He is 2/5 on the turf and there could be more to come at some point, those two wins at this course, one over CD. He has won at the course, class and distance (well,over 12f) and he is 1lb below his last winning mark. 14 days ago he returned here after a three month break and he led for a way- he then got in a pace battle, led again, before fading. Evidence suggests that he may have done too much on the front end, and in any case may have needed the run to a point. Having looked at the pace I think the lead is his if he wants it, if the oppo adopt usual tactics, which you hope is the case. Of course something else may try and take him on but hopefully he can dictate. He doesn’t have to lead and in any case will be in the right spot, no excuses. Something else in here could have more in hand- Hannon’s maybe- but at 8/1 I won’t be talking myself out of a bet based on fear of the oppo, that isn’t the point really. He should be spot on here and provided he doesn’t go too quick again (which in any case could be a tactic to help get his mark down!) he should be thereabouts.
Of Interest… The other pace horse of interest looks to be ICE GALLERY in the 4.00 Ayr – he is the only one in here who does like to get on with it. 7/2 is just a bit too short for me. Were he 5s+ I would have made him a bet. He used to lead for his old connections, this being his second run for the yard. Given they move him up in trip i did just wonder whether they may keep hold of him, to ensure he gets home. Or, alternatively, they trust their judgement on his stamina (breeding suggests he should enjoy every yard) and instruct Lee to get on with it, stack them up, and then kick for home. He may come on for his last run at Donny, fitness wise, and ran there as if he was crying out for a go at this trip. My judgement at the top end of the market is rubbish and he may well hack up now, but isn’t ‘officially’ a test tip for Pace Wins The Race, as the price is just on the short side for me. But he should go well