Members Daily Post: 09/05/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + ratings pointers + prices + bet of the day x2

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Ayr

3.00- Spes Nostra (4yo+) H3, I1 9/2

3.30- Arithmetic (micro going) 8/1

4.30 –

Dragon King (4yo+) I3 

Chaplin Bay (micro going) H1, I1, G1 11/2

 

Leicester

None. 

 

JUMPS

Fakenham

3.40 –

Wiesentraum (all hncps + micro TJC+class) 20/1

Talk of The South (hncp chase) 14,30  15/2

4.10 – Mystic Sky (all hncps) H3, I1 11/4

 

Ffos Las 

3.50 –

Verygoodverygood (all hncps) H3, I1 12/1

One Term (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro class) 33/1

4.20 – Globalisation (all hncps+ hncp chase) H3, I3 9/2

4.50- Don’t Ask (NHF) H3, I3 11/2

 

Exeter

6.45 – Dragon’s Den (micro TJC) I3 13/2

7.15 – Purple N Gold (micro age) I3 12/1

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day (Test) 

(Flat: 1/7,5p, +8)

(Jumps: 7/43, +27)

 

3.30 Ayr – Arithmetic – 1 point win – 8/1 (general)  (Flat)

6.45 Exeter – Dragon’s Den – 1 point win – 13/2 (general) (Jumps)

 

Arithmetic – he is 0/10 in his career so far and is having his third start for Ruth Carr. She will find the key/right races for him at some point and no doubt ratchet up a few handicap wins over the coming years. He ran ok the last day. He was drawn out wide and may have used a fair bit of energy to get out/get a position just behind the leaders, and that effort may have lit him up as having just watched it again he was a little keen through the early stages. Whether this told near the end, who knows. But, he travelled into it well enough and looked like playing a role at one stage, before finding little and just plugging on. Maybe he just doesn’t find much and will need all of Ruth’s magic to turn him into racehorse. There is a chance this isn’t his optimum trip and he doesn’t quite see it out but that isn’t conclusive as yet, and we get a decent price. He also drops in class here. Strummer finished ahead of him the last day and maybe there isn’t a reason why positions should be reversed, albeit a 4lb pull. There is a small chance they may try and make all with him and dictate. He is drawn in 1 here, against the rail and there are no confirmed front runners. It would be good fun if they did bounce him out and try to dictate. I think, at his price, given his profile and the circumstances, he is worth a stab.

Dragon’s Den… from one with few miles on the clock to one who has been around for a while. I am probably mad for going with him, given his age, but he seems to have been rejuvenated (to a point) for the change of yard. He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham, and again LTO ran well until tiring late on, no chance with the front two. It is interesting they race him 15 days later, at a track that he loves- 3/6,4p all runs, 2/5,3p handicap hurdles. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and conditions look ideal. There is also the odd question about most in here and I wouldn’t want to be with either of the top two, albeit one may well hack up. But not for me. Clearly he isn’t unexposed but conditions look fine and provided he comes on for that last run, he could have a shout here. He has been lightly raced in the last couple of years, suggesting he may have issues. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tailed off, given that profile, but ‘IF’ he builds on that last run, and runs his race, I think he could out-run these odds. In the context of this race I think 13/2 is fair enough.

**

 

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

-Chester – I will try and pull together some notes for this meeting, and dig out some from last year. I will attempt to do some draw analysis also, if I have time.

Results- I don’t know where the time goes some days. I have had my head stuck in various spreadsheets looking at the results etc and there is a fair amount in the post so far, but it isn’t complete. I won’t be leaving the flat tomorrow until it is finished- I need to look at the place %, and place returns for 10/1+ say, and also pull it all together into some analysis. For the jumps- it is clear that the #1 strategy will remain so, with caution now for those that have just a HRB rating.

 

**

That’s all for today.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

9 Responses

  1. think tmw will be my last using new I ratings .
    not a patch on Geegeez .
    with 1 to come tonight theyre
    2/22 and -8.5pts to level stakes
    maybe just #1 strategy is way forward for me sun to fri ,
    with all selections on a saturday ?

  2. Re Monday’s racing; why did Cape Discovery not run? Do you think that it is worth sticking in the tracker under certain circumstances?

    Desert Sting landed the odds and was backed down to 5/2, so must have been thrown in a bit. Well done those that were on.

    The Dettori one ride at Chelmsford landed the easy money. I think that Mr Dettori can still ride at the top if he is motivated and so there may be money to be made following him with certain trainers.

    1. I assume it was due to the going,if they deemed it too firm. Which is always what you want to happen. It was a niggle but he ran fine on some sort of ‘good to firm’ LTO. Worth noting in sense that he likes Windsor and likes to front run. Below his last mark, still lightly raced etc.

      Dettori… he is still one of the best for me. Must have one of the best tactical brains going. Usually is on classy horses where tactical skill more important than brute strength. His pace judgement/timing wins him plenty. Horses seem to go for him. And he has big race bottle. In an elite on that front for me.

      1. My dettori system has been quite good for me so far this year
        Flat
        2015-2017
        Sunday Monday Tuesday Thursday Friday Saturday
        Position in stalls not between 9-11
        Odds forecast between 3.5-15
        Horse Best in 5 runs 2nd or 3rd
        So far this year 5 bets 2 wins 8 points
        I’m sure you could better that with bog

  3. Good morning

    Just the one qualifier for me today

    JUMPS

    Fakenham

    4.10 – Mystic Sky (all hncps) H3, I1,38%, 6/5+ price taken 3/1

    Good luck

  4. Willy Watch

    A small win of 1.5pts to get things started,Wont be betting at Dundalk AW,he may just be using the track to sharpen them up as record there suggests,so its waiting time time to at least Saturdays meeting at the Curragh

  5. Karl Burke has a decent strike rate with 3yo at Ayr,has 3
    England Expects 2.00 at 12/1
    Born To Be Alive 2.30 15/2
    Borrishole Abbey 4.00 11/2

    Slight preference for Borrishole Abbey but money for others would be signifigent

  6. England Expects 12/1-5/1,may drift in live market but value gone,don’t think it was my few euro that caused that

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