Members Daily Post: 09/05/17 (complete)

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Ayr

3.00- Spes Nostra (4yo+) H3, I1 9/2

3.30- Arithmetic (micro going) 8/1

4.30 –

Dragon King (4yo+) I3 

Chaplin Bay (micro going) H1, I1, G1 11/2

Leicester

None. 

JUMPS

Fakenham

3.40 –

Wiesentraum (all hncps + micro TJC+class) 20/1

Talk of The South (hncp chase) 14,30  15/2

4.10 – Mystic Sky (all hncps) H3, I1 11/4

Ffos Las 

3.50 –

Verygoodverygood (all hncps) H3, I1 12/1

One Term (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro class) 33/1

4.20 – Globalisation (all hncps+ hncp chase) H3, I3 9/2

4.50- Don’t Ask (NHF) H3, I3 11/2

Exeter

6.45 – Dragon’s Den (micro TJC) I3 13/2

7.15 – Purple N Gold (micro age) I3 12/1

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day (Test) 

(Flat: 1/7,5p, +8)

(Jumps: 7/43, +27)

3.30 Ayr – Arithmetic – 1 point win – 8/1 (general)  (Flat)

6.45 Exeter – Dragon’s Den – 1 point win – 13/2 (general) (Jumps)

Arithmetic – he is 0/10 in his career so far and is having his third start for Ruth Carr. She will find the key/right races for him at some point and no doubt ratchet up a few handicap wins over the coming years. He ran ok the last day. He was drawn out wide and may have used a fair bit of energy to get out/get a position just behind the leaders, and that effort may have lit him up as having just watched it again he was a little keen through the early stages. Whether this told near the end, who knows. But, he travelled into it well enough and looked like playing a role at one stage, before finding little and just plugging on. Maybe he just doesn’t find much and will need all of Ruth’s magic to turn him into racehorse. There is a chance this isn’t his optimum trip and he doesn’t quite see it out but that isn’t conclusive as yet, and we get a decent price. He also drops in class here. Strummer finished ahead of him the last day and maybe there isn’t a reason why positions should be reversed, albeit a 4lb pull. There is a small chance they may try and make all with him and dictate. He is drawn in 1 here, against the rail and there are no confirmed front runners. It would be good fun if they did bounce him out and try to dictate. I think, at his price, given his profile and the circumstances, he is worth a stab.

Dragon’s Den… from one with few miles on the clock to one who has been around for a while. I am probably mad for going with him, given his age, but he seems to have been rejuvenated (to a point) for the change of yard. He ran well for a long way at Cheltenham, and again LTO ran well until tiring late on, no chance with the front two. It is interesting they race him 15 days later, at a track that he loves- 3/6,4p all runs, 2/5,3p handicap hurdles. He is 5lb below his last winning mark and conditions look ideal. There is also the odd question about most in here and I wouldn’t want to be with either of the top two, albeit one may well hack up. But not for me. Clearly he isn’t unexposed but conditions look fine and provided he comes on for that last run, he could have a shout here. He has been lightly raced in the last couple of years, suggesting he may have issues. I wouldn’t be shocked if he tailed off, given that profile, but ‘IF’ he builds on that last run, and runs his race, I think he could out-run these odds. In the context of this race I think 13/2 is fair enough.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

-Chester – I will try and pull together some notes for this meeting, and dig out some from last year. I will attempt to do some draw analysis also, if I have time.

Results- I don’t know where the time goes some days. I have had my head stuck in various spreadsheets looking at the results etc and there is a fair amount in the post so far, but it isn’t complete. I won’t be leaving the flat tomorrow until it is finished- I need to look at the place %, and place returns for 10/1+ say, and also pull it all together into some analysis. For the jumps- it is clear that the #1 strategy will remain so, with caution now for those that have just a HRB rating.

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That’s all for today.