Members Daily Post: 02/05/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + important messages + prices + bet of the day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

FLAT

Brighton 

3.00- Bahamian Sunrise (4yo+) H1, G3 6/4 UP

4.10 –

Fairy Mist (4yo+, + micro runs this season) 11/1 2nd 16/1

Sir Jamie (micro TJC + going) H1 14  5/1 UP

Ettie Hart (micro age) H3 11/2 UP

5.10 –

Becca Campbell (all hncps)

Miss Ingasock (all hncps) H3 4/1 WON 6/1

Sir Jack (micro going) G3 12/1 2nd 12/1>5/1 (agonising to watch) 

 

Nottingham

4.50 –

Ballyfarsoon (4yo+) G3

Brigadoon (micro class) 7/1 2nd 7/1

 

Yarmouth

4.00 – Ms Gillard (all hncps) H1, G3 3/1 UP

4.30 –

Glory Awaits (all hncps) 15/2 UP

Horsted Keynes (all hncps) 13/2 2nd 7/1

 

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2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day: Test (Flat: 0/0 = 0 )

4.30 Yarm – Horsted Keynes – 13/2 (general)- 1 point win 2nd 7/1*

Hmmm. That was like watching the flat version of Vyta Du Roc – agonising > challenge left too late > you knew the line would arrive a few strides too quickly. Odd ride- proper hold up tactics and didn’t look to be that strongly run. Just failed, so nearly finely judged, but not quite. He is keen so does need cover but that was rather exaggerated. Annoying. But,that’s racing. It was rather ironic as well- Atzeni employing Jamie Spencer type tactics, and of course he beat him on a more prominent ride! 

This one has yet to strike for David Simcock but if he were to return to any of his old form here, he would lift some of these up and carry them over the line. A few years ago he hacked up over CD in a C3, at a similar time of year, off 1lb lower. He then came second off OR100 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (handicap) at the Royal meeting. That was back in 2014 mind, and he has only shown bits and pieces of form since then. However, he has been running ok on the all-weather, bar the last run where he was too free, probably doesn’t stay 8f, and maybe didn’t like the course. Anyway he has had a short break since then and I will ignore that run.

I found the jockey booking interesting given Andrea is 9/32,17p on all Simcock handicappers, 4/16,8p on the flat turf. I don’t know if it is significant that Spencer is on Bell’s horse or not, he has ridden both plenty of times. I don’t think there is an owner link but I don’t know. In any case AA is 1/2,2p on the horse.

Back to the horse- well for some reason he doesn’t have a GG speed rating so not a case of him being rubbish on the figures as such. His placed stats (inc some wins)- 5/7 in C3, 2/4 good to firm, 1/1 at the track, 9/15 over 7f. In handicaps he is 3/7,7p OR 90 or below, 3/7,5p C3 <10k or below. Field size etc is all fine.

At 13/2 I think there is just enough to go on. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in this and he can race prominently. If he can settle and can recapture something like his best, he wins this I think. You guessed it, there is only one way to find out…

 

Nothing else really jumps out at me. Sir Jack is a qualifier for the #1 strategy , ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+’ approach and looks like being the only such one today.

Good luck with whatever you go with.

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

A few ‘parish notices’ to read carefully…

1. Speed Ratings…There will be no Geegeez Speed ratings for any Jumps fixtures until the start of September. Dr Peter May takes a break from producing these during the summer and focuses on the Flat. I have spoken to him and he said historically they didn’t do too well – although with our approach the summer jumps had a decent start. So, that is a small spanner in the works. I have emailed the guy behind Inform Racing to request if I can use his ratings in the same way I use HRB/GG speed. I am waiting to hear back. If he gives me the green light I will pay the £150 for annual Membership and we can trial those out as well. That may be no bad thing long term and we may end up stumbling across even more gold.

 

2.My Horse… Blessed To Empress... I say my horse, I own 2.5% in this lovely looking filly and she races in the first race at Chelmsford on Tuesday. I am expecting an email from the syndicate managers with their preview/thoughts on the race/what is expected. At this stage I have no more info than I had before when discussing share options. She has worked very well, and is ready to go. She has been comfortable leading work and has a bit of speed about her. In time, on breeding, 6-7f should be her trip. I think the guys behind the syndicate are happy for me to share any info within my Members Club, and as long as you don’t share it any further, that should be fine.

 

3. RESULTS… I will update results for the ‘jumps’ stats up to the end of April. I will carry out a review and as requested by a couple of you, have a look at the Each Way option. If any of you have any of your own results/thoughts on EW betting, please do share. I will also get results together for the Flat and Summer Jumps, before doing a first review of those come the end of May. I aim to get those all complete this week.

 

4. Membership Expired/Renewal – I will explain this in more detail, step by step, in the coming days- but those of you who joined the £7.50 offer paid your last subs in April, and at some point this month you will not be able to read Members content. Remember- you can ALWAYS log in with your members info- just if your subs expire you can’t read the posts- BUT you can use the links in the log in box to ‘renew subscription’. Options will be there to do that if you so wish, to continue your membership. Remember if you sign up to either of those options you will never be asked to pay more. Those prices are fixed, for as long as you stay a member. I can confirm the Winter Season ticket (Oct-April) will be at least £127, and probably north of £147- so if you do just wish to join just for the winter, your best bet will be taking the ‘annual’ option before the end of September – and in effect get 5 months over the summer for ‘free’. I will pull my finger out and get some ClickBank options up also if possible (it should be). Any questions etc post a comment or email me: info@racingtoprofit.co.uk 

 

5. Monthly Research Articlesfinally… I have pulled together a repository of all Members’ Only research articles/big meeting notes etc. The article I wrote in April is no up. I will try and get into the habit of re-posting this every month. If you like your trainer angles there is always something of interest to flick though. You are free to download these to your computers etc and use as you see fit. If you do track any angles/follow them/fancy any horse on the day- please do comment away and share! 🙂  You can read that post HERE>>>

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4. Blessed To Empress (runs in the 6.10) 

As a share owner I have been given permission to share with my Members (that’s you!) any relevant information that I receive etc.

Blessed To Empress runs tonight and below is a race preview from the syndicate team. The horse is currently 9/1 and I will have a small owners EW interest. It is her first start, and it appears she isn’t tuned up 100% and should come on for the run- that doesn’t mean she isn’t fit enough to win of course and it appears the plan is to race her prominently – if the jockey can go his own pace then who knows. Anyway, you can track her progress.

Their preview, sent to shareholders, is below…

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As for the race itself, with just the one previous horse running, we really are in the dark as to what we can expect.
2. Sweet Vixen – April foal, Foxwedge – Sugar Beet. Sire 10% with 2-year-olds, 7% just 2 winners early season, Dam won at 2 for Ron Harris. Tom Clover new to the trainer ranks, an interesting jockey booking in Martin Lane, who rides Chelmsford well.
3. Devil Or Angel – March foal, Assertive – Level Pegging. Sire 7% with 2-year-olds, drops to just 2% – 1 winner from 38 early season, it’s also worth noting Assertive has failed to have a 2-year-old winner in the last couple of years from 46 attempts. Dam 4 winners from 8 offspring, 2 of which at 2. Withdrawn at stalls at Southwell at the start of last month.
4. Dorcas – Feb foal, Havana Gold – Mortitia. First season sire no winners yet from 5 runners, all bar 1 showed good promise though. Dam 2-year-old winner 95 rated at peak, one offspring so far – no real form to note from 4 runs. Trainer James Given has made a slow start to the season, just 1 winner in last 30 days, however, does have respectable 13% strike rate with 2-year-old newcomers. 
5. Three Little Birds –  March foal, Dandy Man – Oilinda. Sire 9% with 2-year-olds, 18% early season.  Dam first offspring was a late season 2-year-old winner for Michael Bell. Sylvester Kirk is another trainer who has been quiet of late, with just 1 winner from his last 26 runners, however, the trainer can ready a newcomer with a 10% strike rate first time up.  
6. Arabian Jazz – Late March foal, Red Jazz – Queen Of Rap. First season sire 2 from 11 so far. Dam won first 2 races at 3, one offspring hard to gauge as form is in Italy. Stall 8 would be a concern, especially for a newcomer. Michael Bell tends to have his horses need the experience first time up with just a 6% strike rate.
7. Asheena – March foal, Lethal Force – Meddle. Another first season sire, 0 from 7 so far. Best run probably Asheena herself. Dam has produced 5 winners from 7 offspring though, with winners at 2. Interestingly 3 trained by Paul Darcy. She was 6 of 12 midfield on debut, was beaten a fair distance and trainer is 0 from 11 on 2nd start, however, race experience counts for a lot, 3 of the first 4 home at Salisbury yesterday all ran previously.
8. Princess Lyla – April Foal, Arakan – Hi Lyla. Sire 11% winners with 2-year-olds, 18% early season. Dam 2 winners from 4, no 2-year-old winner. Richard Hughes has been ticking over OK recently, his 2-year-olds much like his old guvnor Richard Hannon tend to come on a fair bit for their first experience. Just 2 from 53 on debut reflects this.
 
1. Blessed To Empress – Holy Roman Emperor’s operate at an 11% strike rate as 2-year-olds. Whilst Amy is pleased with how she has been progressing at home, her flat runners are no doubt being trained to come on for their first run of the season. Being prominent or even leading can be a huge advantage around Chelmsford, especially over shorter distances. Instructions will be to try and do this and fingers crossed she can break well.
Summary
Dorcas looks an early type and is the only other February foal in the race. Her trainer can ready newcomers, and with luke Morris booked, it looks like they expect a good showing. She looks the likely winner on paper. Of the other newcomers, Three little Birds is another who we can expect to show up well on her overall profile. Add into the mix Asheena, and the fact she’s run before, it starts to give you 3 with decent claims. It could be a competitive little race. We shouldn’t forget we also have to give weight all round, being the most expensive horse in the race. We are hopeful of a decent run and have good claims on breeding.
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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

24 Responses

  1. Mick Appleby at Nottingham is almost as good as Dascombe at Haydock and all his entries are worthy of notice,he usually knocks one in at a tasty price.

    Will be having a bet on
    3.10 Hijran 16/1 BV
    5.25 Fantasy Keeper 8/1 BV

    Simcocks Zmyran is a very big price for a cd winner at 11/1 BV
    Andrea Atzeni seems to be retained jockey for owner,

    I trialed the inform racing stats and they are pretty good,especially if you have a strategy,to give added confidemce,and it does find some big priced ones.

      1. It would be same category as the 2 above Russ,but its best priced 5/1,just about backable,its the bigger priced ones from the stable that make the bank grow,if you can catch them

    1. Cheers Gearoid…more grist to the mill…..I missed the opening winner today as I couldn’t get on….so the large has gon back in the bottle….lol..fibber.

      Cheers mate.
      Tony Mc.

    2. The Hanagan booking on Hijram is eye-catching particularly with Mullen available considering he is 2/5, 4p on the flat for the trainer including a winner at the track. I also agree that the Atzeni booking is a plus on HK particularly as he is 1/2, 2p on the horse.

  2. I seem to recall that there is an angle with M Appleby 5f runners can some expand on this for me please.
    He has Classic Pursuit 8.40C tonight? 15/2

    Mike

  3. Had a message from a friend who’s sister trains Solvieg Song, running in the 5.10 at Brighton today. They really like its chances, it’s wearing first time blinkers and they think that will do the trick.

    Dual C&D winner and back down to LWM.

    14/1 with b365 currently.

  4. Morning Josh,
    I’ve sent you an email last night with how I come up with percentage chance and odds for handicap flat races, hope it sheds a bit more light on it.

    My qualifiers for today
    FLAT
    Brighton
    3.00- Bahamian Sunrise H1, G3, 41%, 6/5+ price taken 13/8 (Ladbrokes)
    5.10 – Miss Ingasock (all hncps) H3, 17% 11/2+ to match on betfair 6.6 min bfsp

    Yarmouth
    4.00 – Ms Gillard (all hncps) H1, G3 18% 9/2+ to match on betfiar 5.5 min bfsp

    Good luck

    1. Cheers Stephen, it’s exciting, and a bit of fun. The reports seem positive, let’s just hope she breaks well and can be up there/show some ability. On looks/homework/breeding I would like to think she will have a race or two in her this year, whether that is a maiden, novice,or waiting for nurseries etc. Amy seems very shrewd and a yard to watch in the next few years- her early SRs% etc are very impressive. Albeit this is only her second 1st time out 2 year old I think. We shall see.

  5. Kick in the teeth the from HK compounded by Sir Jack losing in a photo. When does the jump season proper start again?

    1. It has been one of those periods, a few weeks of close second places/horses looking like winners. Brighton result wasn’t that close in the end- horrid when they get caught like that having looked the winner- horse struggled like hell on that track I think, jock tried to keep him balanced- would have been nice if he had smacked him one more time as had responded mid race it seemed- not sure if he got up to the limit/if couldn’t balane. Hard to know if would have made a difference. Didn’t have a penny saver on the winner either, to provide one final kick in the stomach.

  6. Well glad got Miss Ingasock matcheed at 7.6 BFSP cos would of been pissed getting nothing out of that race with her betting Sir Jack (#1 strategy).

  7. …… and ride of the day goes to Clifford Lee on Sir Jack at Brighton. He managed to be in front before the line and after the line but not where it mattered, seemingly giving the horse a bit of a tug half a furlong out rather than use his whip and drive out to the line. My pocket talking again, but these short head defeats are hard to take!

    1. Yep they are rather tough! bloody frustrating but I keep telling myself it all evens out. Recent days been a story of heartbreak. I think the horse struggled on the track and was trying to keep him balanced- but why he hasn’t tried to go after him when obvious a horse is coming I have no idea- not sure what he had to lose there. Not sure if he was 100% balanced on him either up against that rail. One of those.

      1. Cheers gents – always wish you had more on when they do that – but wasn’t really about the betting – just great to watch her do that. It went to plan somewhat. Wasn’t in doubt from quite a way out to my eye. Trainer is clearly talented with all sorts. Onwards and upwards.

  8. Well done Josh. Just wished a few more would’ve had your (and my faith) in her. If your still looking to pass on a share of your share I’m still interested, as long as the price hasn’t suddenly gone up lol . Ken

    1. Yep she did that well. A shame we couldn’t get a couple more. Sadly I won’t be splitting my share further now, sorry about that. Still, at least we can all track her progress on here.

  9. looks a nice horse Josh did that well,i’m another one who wishes he had more than a couple of quid on 🙂

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