Free Daily Post: 02/05/17 (complete)

‘bet of the day’…

No tips or systems again.

I will see if anything else stands out…

Horse of Interest 

I am running out of time this morning so will repeat my Members ‘bet of the day’ test section. This is 30 odd points up on the jumps but I need to start venturing onto the flat. This is where I look through my stats picks/the odds, and pick a horse out that looks most interesting to me- adding in a bit of my own subjective judgement etc…

Bet of The Day: Test (Flat: 0/0 = 0 )

4.30 Yarm – Horsted Keynes – 13/2 (general)- 1 point win

This one has yet to strike for David Simcock but if he were to return to any of his old form here, he would lift some of these up and carry them over the line. A few years ago he hacked up over CD in a C3, at a similar time of year, off 1lb lower. He then came second off OR100 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (handicap) at the Royal meeting. That was back in 2014 mind, and he has only shown bits and pieces of form since then. However, he has been running ok on the all-weather, bar the last run where he was too free, probably doesn’t stay 8f, and maybe didn’t like the course. Anyway he has had a short break since then and I will ignore that run.

I found the jockey booking interesting given Andrea is 9/32,17p on all Simcock handicappers, 4/16,8p on the flat turf. I don’t know if it is significant that Spencer is on Bell’s horse or not, he has ridden both plenty of times. I don’t think there is an owner link but I don’t know. In any case AA is 1/2,2p on the horse.

Back to the horse- well for some reason he doesn’t have a GG speed rating so not a case of him being rubbish on the figures as such. His placed stats (inc some wins)- 5/7 in C3, 2/4 good to firm, 1/1 at the track, 9/15 over 7f. In handicaps he is 3/7,7p OR 90 or below, 3/7,5p C3 <10k or below. Field size etc is all fine.

At 13/2 I think there is just enough to go on. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in this and he can race prominently. If he can settle and can recapture something like his best, he wins this I think. You guessed it, there is only one way to find out…

 

**

That is all for today. 

There will be a post up asap from Hugh Fowler with a recap on some 2 year old races from recent days. Look out for that. 

Josh 

 

p.s HUGH FOWLER’S latest 2-Y-O post can be found HERE>>>>

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

7 Responses

  1. Date & Title: 2nd May Nottingham 5f Fillies Novice
    4.25 Lexington Grace, Queen Penn
    3.75 Silver Bullet, Mraseel
    3.5 Isoletta
    3.25
    3
    2.75 Aquadabra, Main Desire
    2.5
    2.25
    2 She Believes
    1.5 Watch Tan
    Preview – It may well be between the top two unless Mraseel and Aquadabra’s greater experience gets them home or Ed Walker has changed his early season approach or Tom D has decided to send a better one, he is 0/18 with 2yos at Nottingham.
    One must assume that if Aquadabra wins then this is a slightly weak maiden for Nottingham and the strong support is due to her proximity to Daddies Girl at Windsor. Or I have got it all wrong!
    Prior race notesAquadabra – Improved for 2to. Still very small, fit, no doubt Mick will keep campaigning her and she will keep running bravely against bigger or better ones until she eventually gets her win. 63

    Date & Title: 2nd May Brighton 5f Novice Auction
    4.25 Floss the Hoss, Starlight Mystery
    3.75
    3.5
    3.25
    3
    2.75
    2.5 Super Florence
    1.5 Firenze Rosa, Llamrei
    Preview – Looks like a rf

    Date & Title: 2nd May Yarmouth 5f Mdn
    4.25 Contribute, To Wafij, Validator
    3.75 Choice Encounter
    3.5
    3.25 City Guest
    3
    2.75 Hugs And Pats, Kodiac Express
    2.5 Indian warrior
    2.25
    2
    Preview – It won’t take a lot to beat Contribute or Kodiac Express. Choice Encounter did not look to special on debut, running very green so I expect this to be between To Wafij and Validator.

    Prior race notes
    Contribute – Looked like a filly, leggy and light. Presumably speedy, but like Shobrom, more a get him out quick before he is overwhelmed by stronger types. 65
    Kodiac Express – Disappointing type for a Kodiac. Ran reasonably professionally but unlikely to improve much. 62

    Date & Title: 2nd May Chelmsford 5f Fillies Novice Auction
    4.25
    3.75
    3.5
    3.25 Three Little Birds
    3
    2.75 Dorcas, Asheena
    2.5 Sweet Vixen
    2.25 Arabian Jazz, Princess Lyla
    1.5 Blessed To Empress
    1 Devil Or Angel
    Preview – I have to be careful what I say here as our great Panjandrum Josh has invested some of his fortune in Blessed To Empress. Three Little Birds represents Sylvester Kirk who enjoyed somewhat of a renaissance as a trainer of 2yos last year after a period in the doldrums. That said, he is still not the likeliest trainer of a debut winner.
    Asheena shaped ok before getting tired at Beverley. Drawn well here she should get to the front early and be hard to pass, the worry being that he doesn’t get much quality so she simply may not be good enough but did show a good attitude on debut.
    Sweet Vixen – A Foxwedge filly from new trainer Tom Clover, will need to jump well to hold rail from Asheena. Trainer appeared to have his runner I saw well prepared. I have my doubts about Martin Lane on 2yos.
    Dorcas – Havana Gold filly from James Given. Perhaps not the likeliest fto. Flailing Luke on top.
    Blessed To Empress by a good 2yo sire although not renowned for debut wins does get an occasional one. The pictures I have seen suggest ok proportions but unable to get a sense of size. I would be worried about Miss Murphy’s ability to get them ready on debut, of the two I have seen one got loose in the paddock and the other behaved very badly although did not shape too badly in the race before fading. I also do not understand the choice of jockey on a debutant, maybe he is attached to the stable and has lots of 2yo experience in Brazil, otherwise why not put up one of the jockeys with a good strike rate who are riding in the next race, such as Dane O’Neil, who would be guaranteed to give a sympathetic ride and knowledgeable feedback.
    If BtE does not get worked up in the prelims and has the requisite maturity to jump well, she could easily be very competitive. Here’s hoping.
    Hugh

    1. Cheers Hugh….
      By all accounts and purposes the prep has gone well- she went to the track for a test run- I forget the technical name, but it is for young/unraced horses to go through a full race day prep – with it not being an actual race day- going around the paddock, into the stall etc, and then actually ‘racing’ on track. Think it was at Lingfield but I forget- that went well anyway,.
      Jockey – it is her partner I believe, and he has ridden all the work on her and knows her inside out. So, that explains that one.
      Murphy is 10/51,18p all career runners to date, and the early stats are promising. Yep this is only her second 2 year old runner so we shall see!
      Fingers crossed for a good performance and one of some promise for the future.

  2. Just watched Michael Bell’s Main Desire win at Nottingham, he had a second yesterday as well. He must have a decent bunch of 2yos this year as he hasn’t started like this early since 2008. His notable early debut winners have been Art Conoisseur and Margot Did so it is quite possible that Main Desire is ok.

    His other runner at Yarmouth also ran very well at Yarmouth.

    Great to see him putting up Danny Tudhope too, he is definitely top 10 for me on 2yos.
    Hugh

    1. Cheers. That went to plan! Never in much doubt when you knew she should stay a bit further. Should have had more than a small nibble haha but will take that!

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