No tips or systems again.
I will see if anything else stands out…
Horse of Interest
I am running out of time this morning so will repeat my Members ‘bet of the day’ test section. This is 30 odd points up on the jumps but I need to start venturing onto the flat. This is where I look through my stats picks/the odds, and pick a horse out that looks most interesting to me- adding in a bit of my own subjective judgement etc…
Bet of The Day: Test (Flat: 0/0 = 0 )
4.30 Yarm – Horsted Keynes – 13/2 (general)- 1 point win
This one has yet to strike for David Simcock but if he were to return to any of his old form here, he would lift some of these up and carry them over the line. A few years ago he hacked up over CD in a C3, at a similar time of year, off 1lb lower. He then came second off OR100 in the Buckingham Palace Stakes (handicap) at the Royal meeting. That was back in 2014 mind, and he has only shown bits and pieces of form since then. However, he has been running ok on the all-weather, bar the last run where he was too free, probably doesn’t stay 8f, and maybe didn’t like the course. Anyway he has had a short break since then and I will ignore that run.
I found the jockey booking interesting given Andrea is 9/32,17p on all Simcock handicappers, 4/16,8p on the flat turf. I don’t know if it is significant that Spencer is on Bell’s horse or not, he has ridden both plenty of times. I don’t think there is an owner link but I don’t know. In any case AA is 1/2,2p on the horse.
Back to the horse- well for some reason he doesn’t have a GG speed rating so not a case of him being rubbish on the figures as such. His placed stats (inc some wins)- 5/7 in C3, 2/4 good to firm, 1/1 at the track, 9/15 over 7f. In handicaps he is 3/7,7p OR 90 or below, 3/7,5p C3 <10k or below. Field size etc is all fine.
At 13/2 I think there is just enough to go on. There isn’t loads of pace on paper in this and he can race prominently. If he can settle and can recapture something like his best, he wins this I think. You guessed it, there is only one way to find out…
That is all for today.
There will be a post up asap from Hugh Fowler with a recap on some 2 year old races from recent days. Look out for that.