1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
3.Any general messages/updates etc
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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers
Flat
Salisbury
3.00 – Di Fede (1st 2yo) 14/1
4.30 – Glaring (micro going) G3 22/1
Thirsk
2.15 – Saxon Gold (4yo+) 20/1
4.15 –
King of Paradise (4yo+) 14,30 16/1
Steccando (micro age) 14 25/1
Whitecliff Park (micro runs this season +going) G3 11/2
4.45-
Casterbridge (4yo+) 14,30 18/1
Pomme De Terre (micro TJC) 18/1
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KEY:
H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)
G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated
14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr
2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)
nothing today.
3.Any general messages/updates etc
Good to see a nice few flat winners on Saturday, including one at 22s>8s and one for the #1 strategy at 10s>17/2. Hopefully you backed one or more of them. As I ‘ve said before, the Jumps/Summer jumps is proven really, as is the ratings approach- the flat is an unknown to a point and in a few weeks we should have a clearer idea on the best systematic approach. The stats are finding winners though,that is always a good start. I see no reason why the #1 strategy won’t work as well on the flat.
NOTE: For any TTP users, JJ Davies is the name down in the guide under Thirsk, 4yo+. That is how he is in HorseRaceBase but is down as ‘John Davies’ everywhere else it seems, as per the 2.15 and Saxon Gold.
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That is all for today.
3 Responses
Morning all
No qualifiers for me today.
I’ll put up my results for past 9 days later on, it’s only small sample but it is the end of the month 🙂
My results so far
21th-22th April backing any horse which I thought was value at any percent chance of winning saw 20 bets 0 wins, -20 points down.
So looking at that which I know was only two days, I thought there were going to be too many bets and variance was just going to have too bigger swings for me. For a smoother ride I decided to only back which I thought had a 15 percent or higher chance of winning and were value to what my odds line is for that race. 23th-30th April 28 bets with 6 wins, s/r 21% for 14.42 points profit to early price taken /BOG. ISP 2.62 points profit and BFSP 7.51 points profit after commission.
Very early days but good signs so far.
14 points is good and good luck. I will be interested on how you go with a decent sample, say 6 months.