Free Daily Post: 30/04/17 (complete)

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1. Mick Appleby has had 5 from 16 in 3yo races at Thirsk 4/11 in 2016 and 1/5 in 2015.Has Channel Packet running 5.45,has been bit of support from 16-12 in places,has racked up big level stake profit on the winners,might be worth noting

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2. Date & Title: 30th April Salisbury 5f Fillies Conditions
   4.25 Campion
   3.75 Di Fede, Highland Mary, Zain Smarts
   3.5
   3.25 Take Shelter, Billesdon Brook,
   3 Dolly Dagger
   2.75
   2.5 Daddie’s Girl, Hastenplace
   2.25 Shesgotthelot, Esther
   2
   Preview – Despite the label of class three conditions and the prize money this is often a weak race with only the Hannons providing any quality. Tiggy Wiggy, Fig Roll and Cake won recent editions for that stable. Tiggy Wiggy being the exceptional example. David Evans has also won 2 with runners that did not achieve much subsequently. Quoting from B2yor “Winners of this race tend to top out around OR85 except for the best of the Hannon fillies. Race can often be thinner and OR70’s types beating OR60’s kitdespite the Cl3 tag”.
   The question remains is this a good edition or a weak one? Looks the latter to me.
   Take Shelter ran a fair race for James Tate, whose runners have been going well without winning, behind Formidable Kitt at Newmarket. She was drawn wide and ran a very solid and professional race. The winner looks a very speedy and precocious type. Time only ordinary. James Tate’s have looked very much in need of the race so this one looks a natural and with normal improvement should be very hard to beat. The dangers inevitably are from Hannon and Evans. Camion, Hannon/Ryan Moore is second favourite, she started at Wolverhampton and only finished 8th but a few winners have come out of the race. She looked an ok size and is I suppose the most likely alternative to the favourite unless one of the other Hannon runners is supported late on.
   Di Fede, Beckett and Zain Smarts Evans are both possibles too.
   My take is that if Campion is any good, Ryan Moore up on Campion will pose a huge threat to flailing Luke Morris who is not in his element on a 2yo on the turf. Where Daddies Girl finishes amongst this lot will give us a good guide to how good a race this is.
   It will be interesting to see if the ratings I allotted to Shesgotthelot and Daddies Girl work out although Stan Moore’s often take more than 2 runs to snap together.
   Not a great race but should help to pull some form lines together.

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3. I missed this off the bottom of my earlier analysis. Daddies Girl won the race and I think Luke Morris justified my earlier reservations. Filly swerved right and bumped others as they left the gate, got lit up and he struggled to settle her. Then as usual on a 2yo instead of trying to keep her balanced and going forward his elbows start going, he’s bouncing up and down and then starts using the whip flailing around and causingher to duck left away from the stick. When she is clearly not going to get up he gives her another totally un-necessary clump. The contrast with Lulu Stanford beautifully balanced on Daddies Girl just pushing with hands and heels and getting the required response should be a salutary lesson if he cares to watch a replay.

   Prior race notes – if there are two entries for a runner they are in chronological order.
   Daddies Girl – Smaller filly, good compact shape. One of those whose proximity to the front two has one wondering if they can be all that. Small ready type, some improvement still to come but will struggle against bigger girls. 66
   Daddie’s Girl – Did not look to have come on from debut. Seemed to run around and get bullied by slightly bigger ones. 62
   Shesgotthelot – Probably the biggest in the field and a pleasing shape, although still downhill, handsome like her dad. Typical Stan Moore debut in that she was more here to learn than try for a place. She was very green in the prelims and clueless in the early part of the race getting detached at halfway. Then appeared to run on well but this was exaggerated by all bar Autumn Lodge falling in a heap owing to having tried to match strides early with the winner. Should improve a lot for this and may have a small auction race in her on the aw. 67

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