Vyta Du Roc – 1.5 points win – 10/1 (WH/PP/BetfS) 9/1 (general)
Present Man – 1 point win – 12/1 (general)
The final hurrah of the main winter jumps season and in truth bar one mad month it hasn’t been the best on the ‘tipping’ front, but it has been profitable and when time allows I will update results etc. Winning 90 odd points in 4 weeks certainly helped and with any luck I can finish on a high here….
Vyta Du Roc – he is a classy horse, a Grade 1 and Grade 2 winner who has two decent staying runs to his name in the Hennessy and last year’s Scottish National. I keep getting drawn to those and with his tumbling mark I just thought he looked a bit more interesting than most in here. He is 6lb lower than his 9 length Hennessy defeat and that handicap chase form is often some of the best all season. Clearly if he repeats his last two runs then that is 1.5 points more I will be lending back to the bookies. I do wonder if he struggled with 11-12 on his back the last day and in any case he looks like a thorough stayer so 3m around Kempton may not have suited. The flat boys indicated there was plenty of cut in the ground yesterday so conditions should be fine. He usually travels up there, he isn’t a hold up sort, and Henderson couldn’t be in better form. You would like to think they pencilled this in as a target some time ago and he will come here bouncing. We shall see, but at a double figure price he caught the eye and this test could really suit. He must be very well handicapped now but has to go and prove it.
Present Man- I like the fact that he should be up there, right on the pace, and with any luck may well try and lead all the way. He is a solid jumper when in front and he is just in superb form. There should be more to come from him in handicaps. It is all about him being in front, I have never really liked him being surrounded by horses but if he can get into a rhythm he could get plenty of these in trouble. There is a stamina niggle but it is an unknown at again Nicholls is in fine form- it would be fitting end to the trainer’s championship for these two horses to be fighting it out. I thought there was enough there at 12s, which looked a shade generous.
I wasn’t overly enthusiastic to back anything else. 9/2 is ok for Doing Fine but it makes his 7/2 LTO look a steal- another one at the top end I mis-judged, that was a very good price as it turne out. But, this is some step up in quality here and again he will be held up right out the back if adopting usual tactics. I wonder if he will be good enough here. 9/2 feels ok, but probably about right. We know he stays and is in form, and that is more than can be said for plenty in here. He also handles the track. I do wonder if he is good enough and at 9/2 I will leave. The other two from Mulholland just look out of sorts a bit and have a few questions to answer now for me. They both have the ability to take this at their best but again at single figure prices I couldn’t rev myself up to back them. I think Just A Par will get out-paced here in this smaller field on this ground- and the leaders won’t really come back. But he stays, and will keep going.
BenBens may be the most interesting outsider but he is 12 and was doing all his best work late LTO, having got out-paced. He can’t afford to do that here as the fences may then get in the way when needing to close. But if he repeats that big effort only a few days ago he may surprise. Sugar Baron can get back in his races and this is a test for one so inexperienced. Again at single figures, after his UR LTO, I wasn’t jumping to back him today.
I suppose Rock The Kasbah is interesting also, given he is unexposed and has some decent novice form. The ground is a niggle, but only that, as is the big field/possible lack of experience. You could say the same about Present Man but I am hoping he is out the front by himself. I am not sure that Chepstow run screamed extreme stayer but I could be wrong.
I can’t really have the rest for one reason or another.
It is one of those end of season chases. Something has to win it and these two should go well for a time. I am bullish enough about Hendos, I am looking forward to seeing what he can do here. IF he repeats that Hennessy run, and stays on like he did in both that and at Ayr, I think he is the one to beat.It should be a good race to watch.
Good luck with any fancies.
Saturday TJC (14/1<)
2.25 Sand- Menorah
3.35 Sand- Rock The Kasbah
4.45 Sand- Brother Ted
That is all for today.