TIPS
3.50 Cheltenham
Zerachiel – 1 point win – NR
Fourth Act – 1/2 point win – 15/2, 7/1 (general) 3rd *
*oh well an easy enough win for Doing Fine but more than happy to take him on at 7/2, that seemed like the right price. I always think that is short enough for hold up types,and was a small unknown about the track,in that context. These ones keep winning at the moment. Good run from the Buckler horse in second and one to note, part of me is glad he didn’t win! Decent run from Fourth Act but he jumped poorly again here. You will always want a price. Headgear didn’t help that much. Maybe they should try racing him more prominently.
Hmmm. Well, the last three chases I have looked at/tipped in, have been won by ‘could be anything types’, unexposed at said trip, that I have been put off by their price, generally 6/1 or shorter.
This one, arguably along with Bob Buckler’s horse, are the only two ‘could be anything’ types in the race, and the selection is a decent enough price for me in which to take a stab.
Zerachiel- well he comes here in form- he may have benefited from the winner the last day being a monkey but it would have been a promising run whatever, staying on well. He is 1/3,1p over fences and could not be getting the hang of it. He could just be too inexperienced. LH is an unknown to a point, as is decent ground (but it was decent enough the last day and that question applies to a few in here) and of course he may not stay! Those types of concerns/unknowns are always questions with ‘could be anything types’ which is why I am always reluctant to take 6s or shorter, although clearly I could be a better judge at that end. As it happens I was struggling to make a case for any of the more hardy battlers. And in that situation I thought I would take a stab. I should probably have left the race but couldn’t resist. You know me. Ian Williams is in form and used to do well with a horse called Freddo around here, over similar trips. He knows what is needed for a test like this. Hopefully he gets into an early rhythm and I have something to cheer through the race. He could make a mistake early and be shunted along at the back, just not good enough. He is top 3 geegeez speed and top 4 HRB to make me think that he has shown enough to get involved.
Of the rest…
Well it has that tired end of season feel and something has to win. Azure Fly- I just wasn’t confident enough at 13/2 to wade in here- I liked him the last day at 10s, when withdrawn, in part because it was a flat track. He was well stuffed in this race last year and the 5lb less he has on his back wouldn’t have made any difference last year. I think this should be run at a decent clip also. He will really need to stay up this hill and I just have my doubts. BUT, if he does, and he repeats those recent placed efforts, he should be thereabouts. A shame he wasn’t 10s+ as I may have had a go. I can see why you would fancy him, but niggles over the track and him staying around here, + his run in this last year, did put me off at his price. He will relish the ground unlike many in here. I don’t think that was an excuse last year but it is better this time around so maybe that will make all the difference. Provided the blinkers were the reason for the shoddy run LTO, he will give backers a spin to the bottom of the hill- and then who knows!
The Buckler horse hasn’t quite done enough, his run 2 starts ago was a concern, as is his lack of experience in big fields. He is 16s but is also rock bottom of HRB ratings which did catch the eye – but they can win from down there. I would be a bit annoyed if he demolished these, but on the strength of his form there are a couple of niggles I think.
I can’t back Any Currency at 14 now, not in his current form. I tipped him in this last year when he won- clear pace angle, in form, he made all etc. Port Melon – well the jockey is enough there to put me off,against pros.
Spookydooky- I fancied him the last day in perfect conditions but he was poor. The ground is an uknown here – he may relish good ground but he has proven himself in soft/heavy, which makes his last run a head-scratcher. He looks like a stayer, is well handicapped, and jonjos are in the best form they have been all season. I can see a case but I wasn’t over convinced. I couldn’t really find an excuse for his poor run LTO,and as I say I have no idea about Good. Maybe 7s is ok, I think I wanted a bit bigger.
Fourth Act has form over CD but he can’t half clout a fence and usually comes from further back. He is a danger if putting it all together. Tizzard’s string are bouncing again and I can see a case for him. 15/2 may be ok actually but his last three runs, and his jumping, did put me off. He doesn’t really come here in great form and again, more one I would have been interested in were he 10s+ or something. But then, my judgement of price can be crap and maybe 15/2 is ok, if he is back in form. I may have him as the main danger actually. A repat of that G3 run here may be enough, and when he last ran there is a chance a few of Tizzard’s were a bit off. Hmmm. (yep, one of those where I change my mind while writing, he is worth a 1/2 point I think)
Doing Fine is short enough for one who doesn’t like winning too often/on recent efforts. He may win. He jumps and he stays well but he is short enough for me and worth taking on. Troika Steppes just looks out of sorts, can hit a fence, is a bit of a plodder and I am unconvinced he will stay this trip. When he won over 25f here he was able to dictate his own pace up front, in a race for inexperienced jockeys, the ride won it as much as the horse I think. I could be wrong. I can’t have the other two.
So, Zerachiel ‘could be anything’ and Fourth Act has looked like a stayer and has some decent G3 runs to his name, one around here. His jumping can be shoddy but he didn’t wear headgear when last running here. His last run ‘could’ be down to the form of the yard at the time. He has had a little break and the yard couldn’t be in better form now. Those two will do. Azure Fly will have me crying into my tea no doubt. Buckler’s would be painful, but I wan’t to see more.
**
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
4:25 Chelt – Iora Glas (12/1 <guide) WON 16/1 (10pR4) 14.4/1>12/1>8/1
8.00 Sedg- Oh So Gigolo (any odds for now, 9/1< best)
**
17 Responses
I picked up on the Craven stats in the form of backing four Gosden runners on Tuesday and finding the 7/2 and 13/2 winners. I was out today and so was cash betting in a Corals shop. Struggled to get much on even after talking it through with the manager and having a connect card. They let me have 4 x £100 singles on eventually. Terrible really. I guess when I go back to pick up winnings they wont let me have much on again?
Good stuff Martin, yep I suspect that you may have to move on from that shop! Although don’t they accept a minimum in cash these days, or to lose X amount -or is that on live TV races, certain conditions I think. Forget what their policy is these days but they did lead the way in certain circumstances by promising to lay up to X.
Cracking day of racing tomorrow. Firstly the Silver Trophy (Cheltenham 14:40) and I can see Art Mauresque going one better this year than 12 months ago in this race. He had a nice pipe opener at Cheltenham to freshen him up for this. The key to this horse is good ground and away from large fields where his record is 6 from 8 with the only 2 losses in a Grade 2 on debut as a 3 year old and a Grade 1. I can only assume this has been the target since last season. Nicholls has won with 8 of his last 12 runners. He has won this race 4 times. I really expect to him go close and he looks a solid e/w bet.
I also like the look of Azure Fly in the 15:50. Much like the reasons pointed out by Josh at the weekend he finally gets his ideal ground and I think this is his ideal trip. He has been running well all season and has gone close on a number of occasions. He is 8lbs lower than when running in this last year and this looks a weaker race than 12 months ago. Dickie has been booked for the ride which is also a plus given he is a very solid 9/30, 16p in handicap chases when riding for Longsdon this season including a win at Cheltenham. The trainer has been in better form in recent weeks than he has for most of the season.
Moving on to Newmarket I want to have a bet on Mont Kiara in the 13:50. He fits both the Ryan micro angles Josh found for the meeting (Handicap: 2/5,3p, +15 SP , +18 BFSP and 6-6.5f: 3/8,3p, +18 BFSP,+22 BFSP ). Harry Bentley gets on very well with him with a 1st and a 2nd from 2 rides. He ran 3 very good races at Newmarket (albeit the July course) over 6f on fast ground tomorrow including when getting within 2 lengths of Dancing Star who went on to win the Stewards Cup. He is perfectly place right next to the two main pace angles. A number of the others are making their seasonal re-appearances and he is another I expect to go close tomorrow.
Moving over to Sedgefield I think its eye-catching that Harry Skelton bypasses Cheltenham tomorrow and goes up here for a couple of rides. I thought Fadas looked overpriced in the 17:55. Dan thought she had a shot at placing in the Fred Winter and whilst that hasn’t worked out this is much easier than her last two runs. She gets all the allowance here. Trainer won this last year with another 4 yr old Red Tornado, who went on to land the Summer Hurdle and the brothers are 2/3 in non-handicap hurdles here in the past 2 years (Dan is 5/11, 8p with all his non-handicap hurdlers in the past 2 years so he doesn’t make the trip lightly). The stable is in flying form and the last 11 runners ridden by Harry has produced 6 winners, 2 seconds and 3 thirds. 4/1 looked too big in the context of the race and I suspect he will probably go off at half the price.
3 5f 2yo races today, Newmarket and 2 Divs at Beverley. Can’t get to Newmarket.
Date & Title: 19th April Newmarket 5f Fillies Novice
4.25 Formidable Kitt, Highland Mary, Mraseel, Queen Of Kalahari
3.75 Cherubic, Ziarah
3.25 Noble Manners, On A Roll
2.75 Take Shelter
Preview – With Highland Mary a non-runner, I’m not tempted to look beyond the other 3 on 4.25. Formidable Kitt seems to be supported this evening but with Tom Dascombe’s 2yo runners so far this season all needing the race hard to get over excited. He did win this last year though. No selection as yet.
Date & Title: 19th April Beverley 5f Novice
4.25 Kikini Bamalaam
4 Almane
3.75 Dyson’s Girl
3.25 Ventura Quest, Emilia James,
2.75 Magic Jazz, Brandy Station, Mistress Of Venice
2.5 Progressive jazz
2.25 Mount Hellvelyn
.5 Furni Factors, Just For The Craic
Little to go on here Almane looked small at Doncaster and seems a weak favourite to me drawn 10. Selections Kikini Bamalaam and Dyson’s Girl.
Date & Title: 19th April Beverley 5f Novice
4.25 Hot Rock
4 Bengali Boys
3.75 Starlight Mystery
3.5 Glen Valley
2.75 Wahoo, Watching Spirits, Poet’s Dawn, Reel Mr Bond, Asheena
2.25 Fortunate Vision
2 Abu Dhabi Doo
1.5 Bahuta Acha, Dark Hedges
Preview – All the highest scorers are badly drawn. Selections Hot Rock and Reel Mr Bond
Formidable Kitt for Tom Dascombe at Newmarket shortened even further in the market and turned out to be the real thing. There are usually a handful of maiden winners come out of this race but few who go on to much greater things. Formidable Kitt looks like a potential Queen Mary type as long as Wesley Ward doesn’t have another Lady Aurelia up his sleeve. Kitt looks pretty small and may be limited by that.
Two Fahey horses both ridden by Hanagan, both 2nd in on my algorhythm took the divisions of the Mdn Auc at Beverley. I suppose this was the inevitable of trying to find some better value. Dyson’s Girl and Kikini Bamalaam both looked too small to compete well in D1.
In D2 reel Mr Bond was withdrawn and Hot Rock was very green but did look to have some potential staying on at the end.
Hugh
From Timeform Chelenham Going : Good (Watered) was any rain at Chelt
fun bet on opener at Chel Coastal Tiep 9/2 can win if going is good
No rain.
That’s more than a fun bet, Pab; offers great value with improvement likely over this stiff track.
I ve been looking at chelt 3.50 Any Currency is 2lb higher than her win here 1 year ago,last runs,if you look history one year ago had poor runs before win
was 22/1 early pric,went to 14/1 than rebound to 18/1 on exchange
Decimus looks good to me 4.25 chelt will compete with First Fandango
Pab, last year’s win came on the back of a victory at the Festival before he was stripped off it. Not saying he can’t win and if mine and Josh’s are out of it I will be rooting for the old boy because he is an absolute legend but to say he is in the same form as last year is just wrong.
Interesting race Millicent Silver is my small e/w little crazy,Thomas Crapper win
Casino Markets e/w at 14:40
Good luck gents. I will be a bit miffed if Nick or I don’t have the winner, quietly confident it will be one of those three! Time will tell.
Today I’m backing: Cheltenham 1550 – Fergal Mael Duin, Sedgefield 1930 – Sweet Belle, Wolverhampton 1945 – Falcon’s Fire.
Enjoy nice day o racing, lets hope we all get some winners.
If you want 3 winners then I just put them on for you 🙂
Oh I do like confident talk Marcin! Good luck.
Josh
You do such a great job with all your stats/analysis etc and from that in big hcps you give out your SHORT LIST invariably give out the winner or a place or two, could you do the same when you TIP other races. You shy away from a few winners by either second guess ing or the price is to short for you.
I would rather you put out 4 or 5 from a shortlist after you have done all your work from HRB etc, then do the write up.
Just my opinion after following for sometime now, interested to hear your view.
Keep up the good work though.
Mike
Hi Mike,
Always happy to take ideas on board, you are right, I should add a ‘shortlist’ below any ‘tipping’ race, would make it easier rather than digging out the nuggets.. I suppose with any shortlist the Fav would always be on it..but ignoring him that was narrowed down to 3 really, the 2nd, 3rd and NR (2nd not tipped, nearly had me rather annoyed!) Azure fly fairly close. Rest I discounted.
Will try and improve!
Josh
Great Day Josh,havent gone over to flat yet but Paddy still filling our boots
Mad Gerry, winners everywhere you look! She was the main one- backed as per system above, also combined with TTP – had very interesting profile on closer look- mid season break, pipe opener LTO over inadequate trip/wrong ground, set up to win a race at trainer’s local course. Easy!
Craven stats threw up a fair few and a couple at tasty prices, and TTP had a few other winners but would be lying if I backed any other ones, bar Fergal’s. A good day.