Hugh Fowler: 2 Year Olds (#2)

Weekly round up + 2 reviews from our resident 2 YO expert…
Over to Hugh…

Weekly roundup..

Although I was not there to see it I would think the achievement of Excellently Poised in overcoming Requinto Dawn (winner of Brocklesby D2) along with the win of Rock Of Estonia were the two best performances of the week. However none of the collateral form (Black Orange, Hellovaqueen, Quick Skips Lad) from behind Requinto Dawn is stacking up well.

For a debutant like Excellently Poised to overcome a Fahey winner who should have improved a bit from debut win is quite an achievement and I would think EP has the potential to rate in the 80’s. Was it the 4lb penalty that stopped Requinto Dawn, well possibly but I would have thought that the race experience would be more significant.

D1 of the Brocklesby which was a bit faster now looks the better division with Last Page (2nd) and Autumn Lodge (3rd) behind Chatagai (Clive Cox) at Bath and Dragon’s Teeth (2nd) behind Plunger at Kempton giving the form a solid look albeit at a lowish level.

Rock Of Estonia who won the Windsor maiden for Charles Hills under Jamie Spencer looked to have some quality, was certainly not hard trained and did it without a lot of trouble. He is the first runner I have seen that deserves a rating of 80+ this season.

Newmarket Craven meeting starts on Tuesday. I shall be able to photo the colts but unfortunately I can’t get there on Wednesday. Daughters 18th!

Hugh (you can follow me on twitter HERE>>)
Reports: Reviews + Photos 
11th April, Lingfield: CLICK HERE TO READ>>>
15th April, Kempton: CLICK HERE TO READ>>>
Re Cap: You can read about Hugh’s methods HERE>>>
Back next week.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

One Response

  1. have any of you guys got a staking plan that keeps you focused
    I use the following

    the 0.5 0.75 1.00 per cent of bank per bet.
    bet 0.5% 0.75% or 1% of your total bank for 10 races
    then start again.
    if your bank has moved up or down by 5% or more adjust the stakes for the next 10 races.

    eg on bank of £2000
    race 1 £15 win at 2/1 win +30
    race 2 £10 win at 4/1 lost +20
    race 3 £20 win 6/4 lost LEVEL
    race4 £20 win at 2/1 win +40
    race 5 £10 win at 8/1 lost +30
    race6 £20 win at 5/2 win +80
    race 7 £10 win at 11/10 lost +70
    race 8 £20 win at 4/6 lost +50
    race9 £20 win at 5/1 lost +30
    race 10 £20 win at 7/2 win +£100
    As your bank has increased to £2100 it matches the 5%
    so the next round of 10 bet s can be £21 17.75 and 10.50
    if race 10 had lost you would only be on £2010 so you keep the same stakes(20-15-10) for the next ten races

    if you win or lose less than 5 % you stick with the 20 15 10 stakes
    so if after 10 bets you bank is over 1900 or under 2100 you still go 20 15 10 for the next
    if after 20 bets you are on £2100 after being on 2070
    you can then increase the stake
    only adjust stake in comparison to your last adjustment.

    ie if after 60 bets you have never gone below 1900 or above 2100 at each ten race cut off
    stay with 20 15 10.
    as soon as you swing 5% from you last adjustment at the next ten race cutoff change the stakes

    so if you work up to 40 30 20 stakes that would mean you had a £4000
    bank so you would only increase or decrease the stakes after the next 10 bet cycle
    if your bank goes over £4200 or below £3800

    if it stays between 3800 and 4200 over the next 30 bets
    stick with 40 30 20 only increase/decrease after a 10 bet cycle if it goes
    above 4200 or below 3800.

    so if you are a brilliant punter and you now have a bank of £1 million
    you will be betting £10000 £7500 or £500 a race
    and would only adjust stakes when you bank went over £1,050,000
    or under £950,000

    worse case would be 10 £20 losers so you would be down to £1800
    after 10 bets so the next ten bets would be 18 13.50 and 9
    it gives you a bit of flexibility as you don’t have to stick to level stakes regardless
    but you can never go to gung ho

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