Members Daily Post: 13/04/17 (complete)

Bet of The Day (x2)..All quals + ratings pointers- short video…

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

 

Jumps 

Wetherby 

3.00 – Lightening Rod (all hncps) 14,30  H1, G1 2nd 9/4 

3.30 –

Guitar Pete (micro class) 5/1 2nd 4/1

Deserter (all hncps+ hncp hurdle+ micro 90 days) H1, G3 3/1 UP

4.00-

Shadows Lengthen (all hncps) 14,30  7/1 3rd 10/1 

Wilberdragon (hncp chase) 7/1 UP

Purcell’s Bridge (micro runs this season) 6/1 UP

5.00-

Bankhall (all hncps) G3 10/1 (RP 10/1+ qual)  WON 8/1 (will declare at 8s SP, 10.00 BFSP. 10s when I posted prices,hence a ‘RP 10/1+Qual’, but not sure 10s was around for more than 15 minutes at that time for betting purposes. You may have taken BFSP in any case) 

Blakolive (all hncps) 14/1 UP 33/1 (this time the market was informative,name your price BFSP)

 

Towcester

2.20 – Moscow Me (hncp hurdle) H1, G3 6/1 UP (Became an RP 10/1+ qual BFSP) 

5.20 – Swinging Concerto (NHF) 10/1 UP

 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day… (test: 6/31,+31 points)

Hmmm. Wilberdragon, despite a 20p R4, was weak on the machine – as we know that can mean sod all but on this occasion it seemed to be spot on. He travelled well for a long way, and looked dangerous as they turned for home. But he found very little- maybe he needed it. If fitness wasn’t an issue then he has questions to answer but could be interesting NTO. Blakolive drifted to 33s ISP and much much bigger on BF. She ran as such. One of those. 

 

4.00 Wetherby – Wilberdragon – 1 point win 8/1 (WH/BV/Coral) 7/1 (general) UP

5.00 Wetherby – BlakOlive – 1 point win – 14/1 (Betfred/BV) 12/1 (general) UP

 

A dangerous game here as I am going with two who come up against other qualifiers in their races. Bankhall, in the 5.00 also, is a ‘RP 10/1+’ qual, 10s was available across 4/5 bookies when I added the prices- not sure how long they stayed for, but he is an official qualifier and has been backed by me.. anyway, both of these tick the boxes for the type of horse I like to focus on in the ‘Bet of The Day Test’ namely young, unexposed and doing a few things different from recent runs- reasons why they may improve. It is also an opportunity for me to try and nab the odd winner outside of the #1 advised strategy if I can…

Wilberdragon… well this is only his 4th chase start but it is the first left handed, and the first over 3 miles. He has tended to jump out to the left but his best run over fences to date was over 2m6f at Leicester. This 3m could really suit. He has ran well over fences at Sandown which is a good test for a young chaser. Sam is back on and these two teamed up for an unfancied winner at Exeter recently. Longsdon’s generally like decent ground and the break is no concern- and indeed a positive if anything. With handicap chases over 3m, 60+ days off.. he is 11/41,18p in the last 5 years, 27% sr, +12 SP. With STD over 3m in handicap chases… 2/7,4p. He is unexposed in this sphere and there is a fair bit of pace on also. He should race handy and track whatever is in front of him. I think 7s/8s is more than fair as this trip, LH, and ground could really see him put in a good show. Worth paying to find out at those odds.

BlakOlive- well two stablemates in here and I don’t know what to make of that. This one could be useless but having now got a handicap mark she steps up massively in trip and I could not ignore the fact that her trainer is 3/15,5p with jumps handicap debutants, +31 points. Those are solid enough stats and it is clearly an approach he employs from time to time. This one also gets first time blinkers. The fact they put cheekpieces on LTO makes me wary as it suggests they wanted her to show more then. I am not sure how she got a mark after that, given the handicapper clearly didn’t have enough evidence after the first three runs. He may have plucked a number out of thin air! Anyway, it is handicap debut, step up in trip and first time blinkers. My suspicion is she may be useless, but at 14s, backing that type on the TTP qualifiers has, and will, pay handsomely over time. Best not to over-think it, plenty of reasons for why she may bolt up hard held. I wont mind if either of the Walford runners wins in truth! Fingers crossed.

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3.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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#1 Advised Strategy: VIDEO.

Below is a 12 minute video (short for me!) looking at the #1 advised strategy ‘RP 10/1+’ – mainly for those who are still not sure what it is, OR those who may not know how to set the minimum odds on BFSP. If you just want the Betfair bit you can jump straight to around 8m30 seconds. (there is one factual error in the video when I refer to a recent flat winner as a RP 10/1+ qualifier- he wasn’t, so ignore that!)  

 

 

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RESULTS: Don’t forget to have a flick through the results update to end of March if you haven’t already. You can read that HERE>>>

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VERY IMPORTANT: 

Membership Renewal

A general point first: Your log in details should always get you into the Members Area, whereby you can use the ‘Renew Subscription’ link in the top right hand side when logged in. If your membership ever expires you can still log in, just of course not read Members’ Content. From there you can rejoin/renew etc.

Christmas Offer Members‘ – Those of you on the Christmas offer, £7.50 per month, should be paying your final payments this month. At some point this month or next your access to Members Content will therefore end. At that point, if you wish to stay, you just need to log back in and use the ‘renew subscription’ green link which you can hopefully see in the a box to the right hand side when logged in.

All Members can move from Monthly to Annual at any time, using the same process. Obviously you will need to cancel the Monthly plan to ensure you are not double charged, but you know where to find me if that happens, and I will just refund.

As I have said before, the current plan of £12.50 pm, £127 annual, will never be raised for as long as you remain on it. That will be available through to the end of September.

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That’s all for today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

    1. Hi William,
      Yep the links are all there in the ‘renew subscription’ link when logged in, to the right hand side.

      You can always log in with your existing details, even if your membership ever expires- you just then can’t read members content…

      And with that in mind.. you can sign up for the annual, but of course then need to cancel the monthly plan, either before, or after you sign up to annual, it doesn’t matter. You will be able to get into the members area to ‘renew’ whatever way round you do it.

      Josh

  1. Declan Carroll winner at 25/1 today. Was that not a TTP qualifier?

    If it was, annoying we missed it but then again bodes well for portfolio

    1. Nope thankfully not, I did have that sinking feeling when I watched him romp to victory and thought had I made a howler… it was a 3yo only handicap, which I exclude. So, no , he didn’t qualify. That will happen from time to time, but is the way I want to do it for now. No doubt some trainers are worth backing with ‘all handicaps’ but that’s how it goes.

  2. with the enormous amount of meetings coming over the easter,it might be a good opportunity to tune out and relax,well that’s what I will be doing,turning off laptop and get back to bread and butter racing next week

    1. Ah, in truth I would like to switch everything off for a couple of days but that is a bit tricky!, that dreaded fear of missing a few RP10/1+, or even the odd 20/1+ winner, will be too much. And we have the Irish National winner to try and find. I have just flicked through the racing through to next Wed, and hopefully won’t be too bad- plenty of conditions/novices/3yo only races, which removes a few. Haydock is an all handicap card on Sat though- Saturday could be a bit like Boxing Day, hopefully not and the RPs help focus attention.

    2. Surely with more racing comes more opportunities to find horses which have been priced up “wrong” by the market. Sure its a lot of hard work but I always enjoy these big days full of meetings.

      1. yep, in general I agree.. probably about 3 ‘overly busy’ days a year with this app, Boxing Day is one, this weekend is another (x2 days , Sat + Mon look packed) It can get too much for the eyes… my comment more in relation to a busy period for me personally, but it’s what I get up for so I won’t complain! It will quieten down a tad in a few weeks. There will be a few nice priced winners dotted around with any luck.

  3. Wilberdragon, Trickaway & In the Rough for me in the 4.00 Wetherby……Wings Attract is a tipster horse and Jovial Joey bit short priced for to back properly

    In the 5.00 I like Lochalsh (both the location and the horse), French Seventyfive, Silver Shuffle and Final Fling but with a lot of runners qualifying for me I might have missed the winner

    1. I don’t want it to end Gerry! Yep another for the #1 advised strategy, we like those. Summer jumps looks promising, and with any luck RP 10/1+ will work on the flat also.

  4. It will certainly cut the bet count down to one or two a day which is probably way to go when you have 4+meetings

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