Free Daily Post: 06/04/17 (complete)

Aintree Grand National Meeting 2017

Aintree 2017: Stats+ Trends For 6 Handicaps (inc GN): Click HERE>>>

Any coverage of these races will likely be posted on the Free posts.

Whereas I lock myself away for The Cheltenham Festival, Aintree is a social occasion for me. I go all three days and try to enjoy myself. So, there are no promises on what is covered and what isn’t, although given I don’t have to set off every day until 12pm or so, I should have enough time to pull together something of use.

Members will have access to the usual TTP Selections, which will include Aintree, and qualifiers from a Members Only report looking at various micro angles for the meeting. We shall see how they get on.

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Foxhunters’ runner by runner preview: READ HERE>>>

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TIPS

4.40 Aintree

Doitforthevillage – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (PP/Betfs) 20/1 (general)

Rock On Rocky – 1/2 point win – 25/1 (SkyB/PP/Boyle/Betfs) 20/1 (general)

Well having looked at the stats as below, and from the guide above, I would feel a bit sick if I didn’t have something on these two given their prominence on my shortlist.

It isn’t a race I want to go diving into. In general it is packed full of lightly raced chasers who are generally in form and I think you can make some sort of case for most of the field.

This race can throw up from strange results – in the last 10 years five winners have been sent off 16/1 or bigger, with a few 20s+. So, it may be worth throwing some change at a few bigger priced ones, which is what I have done.

If we were to look at those that finished Top 6 LTO or Did Not Finish, 11-1 or less and 5+ runs this season we are left with..

Astre De La Cour / Doitforthevillage / Rock On Rocky 

Those stats are not 10/10 etc and I may have crossed off the winner. This meeting is never as strong on the stats front as Cheltenham.

Doitforthevillage- well he comes here in form and he is 4/10,5p over fences. There is a chance there is a bit more to come but at the same time he has a fair bit of experience. He is also usually patiently ridden and given I can count 5 who like to get on with it, that may be no bad thing. He ran a decent race the last day, outpaced late on when all of the fences up the home straight were dolled off. He still ran a decent race and is clearly on good terms with himself at the moment. I think the ground should be good to soft and they have been watering. It hasn’t been hot up here and is due to be cloudy on Thursday so I can’t see the ground drying out too much, although it drains well. It is a bit of guesswork as I write and the first few races may reveal more. It may be ‘dead’ but I would hope not. Anyway, at his price I will roll the dice. He could get involved, he may not be good enough, but in an open race I will have a dart.

Rock On Rocky- well I believe he had a wind op a couple of starts back and he hasn’t really looked back since. He usually travels well near the front end and is a solid jumper. He is 3/8,6p over fences and again there is a chance he hasn’t stopped improving yet. Again, he may not be good enough, but he couldn’t be in better form and given he hits my main stats for this, I will have another dart. Again good ground would be an unknown but I am not going to hold back just on that basis.

As I said before you could make a case for plenty. I am not eager to go diving in on any of the four that are 6/1 or shorter as I write. Three ran well at the Festival to a point and it could be  the strongest form on show. But, there are still questions for them to answer. Henderson is 0/10,1p in this race,which tempers some enthusiasm for his although he ticks some of my other meeting micros and could go well. But, that is stating the obvious. Astre De La Cour hits the stats , is unexposed, and has a very good jockey booked. He has small field chasing experience though, which makes 6/1 feel skinny enough for me.

Bun Doran qualifies on a few angles inc the Tom George one below and some in my Members post. He looks interesting enough I suppose but like most in here has questions to answer also. Like I said, you can construct a case for plenty. Not a race to go mad in.

I may not have even mentioned the winner but those two will do for an interest.

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MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Tom George Chasers (any odds)

4.40 Aintree- Bun Doran

K Lee Chasers (12/1<)

4.40 Aintree- Gino Trail

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

4.40 Aintree- Gino Trial (12/1<)

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Aintree Day 1: Other thoughts

I will be going to the track for all three days, so do say hello if you see me crying into my beer, having backed another loser. Below follows some brief thoughts on some of the races. I usually try and pick out a few ‘paddock’ eye catchers – a skill I try and hone every year. My paddock eye isn’t great but occasionally a horse just jumps out at you when circling. (Don Cossack was one of those, still the best looking jumps horse I have seen in the flesh, he was glistening that day he won) 

1.45 – Hmm. Well you would think Top Notch is winning this if he jumps as he can, but he is 5/4, too short for me. Nigel Twiston-Davies is starting to hit some form again, having had a quiet Festival. Well, some signs of life anyway. Since 2011 he is 5/17,9p, +22 SP in non handicaps at the meeting with horses sent off 14/1< As such I will keep an eye on some of his and with that said I may have a muggy nibble on Flying Angel who suffered early interference the last day. At 7s he could give me some fun for my muggy  ‘at the races’ £5/£10. (they can add up come the last race on Saturday!) 

2.20 – Flying Tiger… here is he again, that sodding horse 🙂 Clearly the fav, bar a fall/something going wrong,  should be winning this. But, there are 8 runners which allows an EW play or a look in the ‘without the fav’ market, if one exists. No strong views but I wonder if Dicky may try and be agressive from the front end as he looks a thorough stayer.

2.50 – Smad Place? He looks interesting here to my eyes on the pace front- there is a chance he could get an uncontested lead. I have no strong views on this race. I would cheer Cue Card home but he is too short. I don’t fancy lumping on any of the three at the top of the market. I suppose if I had to back one it would be Empire of Dirt. He is open to improvement at this trip and Elliot would have run him in the Gold Cup if he had his way. Alan King is hitting some form again- well I am unsure if he has ever been out of form this season. But, there is a small chance this has been the plan for the horse, rather than an afterthought. Maybe he is just a bit too regressive but in a race i have no strong view on, he could give me a good spin. Something may leap out in the paddock.

3.25- Another to maybe sit and watch rather than diving in really. The Champion Hurdle winner should be going close although clearly the trip is an unknown. The New One?? Well he may chase him home, and if there are any faults/problems, he is probably the most likely winner.

4.05 – I will follow Darran in with his two big pokes- Broken Eadle and Mr Mercurial EW. Dineur EW looks interesting to me as well as Balnaslow. He, along with Mr Mecurial could try and go from the front here which will improve their chances of placing at worst. Those four will do for an interest.

5.15 – Henderson/Honeyball are the trainers represented who have won this before. Russel riding Sassy Diva caught the eye given her form behind the Champion Bumper winner. 12/1 looks an interesting EW ‘at the races’ stab. Again, maybe I will see if my eye can pick anything out.

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Twitter…

Don’t forget, you can follow me on Twitter if you so wish.. I will tweet occasionally from Paddock side no doubt, if something catches my eye. And it can be the best place to keep updated as to any blog related content etc… you can follow me HERE>>>

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That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.