TTP Jumps Notes: 24/03/17 (complete)

All quals + RPs + Aintree Handicap micros/angles + Bet of the Day

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

3.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.All Qualifiers Against Stats Pack/Ratings Pointers 

NEWBURY

2.30 – Ten Sixty (micro class) 11/1 WON 11/1>8/1

3.05 – Mighty Leader (micro horse runs 90 days) 5/1 UP 10/1

 

MUSSELBURGH

2.10 – John Williams (hncp hurdle+ micro runs 90 days) H1 + G1 15/8 UP

3.50 – Civil Unrest (hncp hurdle) H3 4/1 WON 4/1>7/1

4.55 –

The Wise One (hncp hurdle+ micro age) G3 9/1 (general) 11/1 (PP) WON 10/1, 13.00 BFSP (RP10/1+ qual) 

Touch of Steel (hncp hurdle)

5.25 – Drums of War (NHF) H3 3/1 UP (looks in need of 3 miles maybe! Travelled well, no gears at the end) 

 

2.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Bet of The Day Test: 4/12,4p… +21

4.55 Muss – The Wise One – 1 point win – 9/1 (general)

He looks the most interesting to me today and I believe he was around 14s last night in places, so if you had a nibble at that price well done. Of course he may well drift, and drift out to 11.00+  on BFSP and become a RP10/1+ qualifier. Any drift would probably be a concern. In any case he is lightly raced and apparently  a point winner over 3m on good. He will show improved form at some stage no doubt. Point form can be no indication of stamina but he steps up massively in trip here and runs on good ground for the first time- that is what I pin my hopes on and at 9s+ it is well worth rolling the dice to find out for me. Those would be the two reasons for an improved performance. Ewart is in better form than he has been also- I think he may have had an illness or something but his hadn’t been running well for most of the season. 3/17,6p in the last 30 days, 1/3,2p in the last 14 would indicate some green shoots of recovery and it may pay to keep his onside up north in the weeks ahead. I suspect he had a few fresh/well handicapped ones on his hands. He is 2/9,5p with horses having their second start in a handicap in the last 2 years, and 0/20,8p with those moving up in distance by this % from last run- I forget the figure in geegeez but that stat, in the trainer form drop down in the racecard, refers to a distance move of 20%+ I think from last run. Those place stats are healthy enough at that price. Maybe he is a good EW wager but I have gone on the nose. The market may well guide as to expectations.

I am personally not over enthusiastic about any others at the prices on my own interpretation of their profiles, but no doubt one or two may go close.

I am interested to see how Drums of War goes in the bumper.. only as we backed him LTO at lofty odds for the same stats and it was of interest then that Hughes was booked, as he is today. From memory he looked a big raw horse, a chaser of the future maybe, but he ran with credit. He may have strengthened up over the last few months. Maybe he is just running to gain more experience but in time he may be a decent horse (at a lower level no doubt) for connections.

**

 

3.Any general messages/updates etc

AINTREE: HANDICAP MICRO ANGLES: READ HERE>>>

I spent a large chunk of Thursday researching the above 6 micro angles. There will be a fair bit of cross over between them but with any luck they will point us to a few winners during the meeting. I will post qualifiers from all 6 angles on a post somewhere. Still deliberating what will be free posts vs members only etc. There will be more to follow next week I suspect.

 

Saturday Trends… Having had a brief flick through Saturday’s races/cross referencing with HRB ‘Big Race Trends’ it doesn’t look like there are any races of interest, from a stats/trends perspective. So, it could be quiet on that front. 

 

Sunday Trends..  There is the Ulster National on Sunday from Downpatrick and there are some trends for that, so I will any pointers up for that at some point today. Hopefully a decent sized field lines up, usually 10-15 stand their ground.

**

Nothing else to add today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

26 Responses

    1. No problem Stephen, that’s what you pay for, well, part of it 🙂
      And I am probably at my happiest stuck in my HRB account looking at such things, what a sad life i lead! With any luck they will highlight a few winners.. last year’s 6yo angle, of which those ones have improved on, found the 16/1 winner of the last for Mullins, from a handful of selections. Hoping for the same again.
      Henderson has the trainer championship in his sights and my gut says he may have a superb Festival here- and most of his are arguably more suited to Aintree- strong travellers, ability to quicken, more precocious etc. Time will tell.

      1. Both 00 Seven and Gold Present are entered in the Topham. Either would have the class. Currently 20 and 14 respectively. Both 7 year olds so need to stretch it a little to meet Micro 5, but if one or the other (or both) make it then those odds might be a little generous come the day. Don’t think it’s practical to bet now though, can’t see anything online yet that indicates a definite intention to run. Worth watching out for though.

    1. Your picking was better than mine there Gerry! I left him sadly, which given he was unexposed over fences and PU could be put down to ground LTO, and also going this way round… and being a prominent racer.. hmmm. Damn. Weak race as well.
      anyway, at least you used the info to profit, that’s the main thing! Market a bit weak/not strong, for Ewarts, so not overly confident on that one.

  1. If your sitting with 12/1 or 11/1 on The Wise One its currently pretty good value,regardless of result,you dont mind those not pefrorming,only need1 in 10

    1. Oh indeed.. I would have put him up over Ten Sixty I think, as a ‘bet of the day’ anyway… I won’t pretend I wouldn’t have,but a stronger mention/betting 1/2 point myself or something would have been nice – ticked plenty of boxes you want with an 11/1, non ratings pointer stab. Always something to improve on!

    2. Didn’t miss Civil Unrest Gerry, couldn’t touch him at 4s this morning personally, but went to 8.6 on BF and had a go, esp as they circled it was clear he would prob get an easy lead. Always nice to see an 11 year old win!

  2. Ah well done Josh,its all about the price.at least you can watch the next one run and not be too concerned,that was a great price in retrospect,you cant be really that bothered about the market,lots of gambles going on all the time,theres no money around for Paddyplex though which isnt very positive

    1. Wallop! Was a cracker of a ride… got outpaced/shuffled back on turn, Lucy switched him out and once he realised what game was about he didn’t half motor. Market clearly not much of a guide for theirs when they are steady, maybe not a big gambling yard. That boosts the funds and another for RP10/1+ also. Happy days.

      1. Yep sadly I didn’t take that price! Yep they seem to be going well… as pleased he was one for the ‘set and forget’ strategy of ‘RP 10/1+’ , they are ticking along just fine.

    2. I didn’t see the race but watched the price movements on Betfair and wandered off when the price sky rocketed. I came back just in time to see it hit 1.01, happy days!! What happened to cause such a big drift in running?

      1. Combo of things really..suspect market thought leader had it won, kicked for home early and had massive lead… at same time winner got shuffled back just as Lucy asked him to go.. i think his response was far from immediate! Just took a while to get going, but she switched him wide, into daylight on outside and he has just gone some. Ewart’s yard definitely back.

  3. just got back in what a cracking day, might not have done as well as some on prices but well happy @ 12.0,8.8,9.78 BF, cheers Josh.

  4. Nice job mate. You’re starting to prove my point that you don’t need to keep to 3m Chases to keep banging in the winners.

    1. Quite! Although non trends/stats based winners have been hard to come by in the 3m+ chasing game this season! Yep- I like these starting points and my eye firmly fixed on those open to improvement/reasons why they may improve today. Most/all of the winners so far have been fairly unexposed types within the code etc.

  5. A great day for the column Josh…I had the three at good prices. I think Nick has a good point. You don’t need to stick with 3m chases. I used to follow Nick Mordin at that and it drove me potty.
    Excellent stuff Josh, Well done.

    Tony Mc.

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