Urg. Well, a bump back down to earth there with Emma Soda… where have those trends/stats gone… I would make the same bet again at 10s I think- a couple of niggles but worth a stab at that price. No problems there. In the end the two finishers had 10-00 and in effect 8-9 on their backs. With persistent rain that ground was very heavy and only two could handle it/combined with their light weight, it would seem. It was good to soft this morning with ‘blustery showers’ due..the ground was soon heavy by 1pm. But, I thought that increased the selections chance- I just got that wrong. I didn’t expect a PU that’s for sure- maybe the ground/weight was just too much. Or she just wasn’t on a going day.
The Last Bridge.. hmm. Well you had to forgive him plenty but this was his time of year, he had placed in this race when Emma Soda had won. His mark had plummeted since, and for good reason really- today he was on a going day, enhancing his record with a low weight and in March. Him placing in this race before was probably a reason to give him a closer look but I can’t say I was anywhere near him- 25s- moody bugger, but as I have said you can always forgive a horse plenty at those odds. I was nowhere near to solving that puzzle today.
At least my ‘bet of the day’ test in the Members section found another winner… now 4 from last 6 bets, 4/11,4p total, +22 points– so, that’s going ok.
Moving on…
TIPS
none.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
K Lee Chasers (12/1<)
4.10 Lud – Grey Gold (x2 angles)
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
4.10 Lud – Grey Gold (12/1<)
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Nothing else really jumping out and what is likely to another quiet day I will just repeat my Members post ‘Bet of the Day…
Another winner on Wednesday for ‘Bet of The Day’ (test) : 4/11,4p = +22 points
Bet of The Day
3.50 Chep- Loughalder – 1 point win – 9/1
This old boy owes me and longer term blog readers nothing having won for the blog before at decent prices. He isn’t getting any younger but given his form around here in handicap chases – 4/8,5p, and that of the trainer – 2/6,3p last 14 days, 3/15,4p last 30 days, at 9/1 he is worth a go I think. He could well become a ‘RP10/1+’ qualifiers if drifting to 11.00+ on Betfair but as I write at around 8am 9/1 is the widely available price.
He is a mercurial character, with the ability to bounce back from a PU with a win. LTO at Uttoxeter he went well for a long way in the race before fading, but at least he completed. March-May is usually more his time of year and there is a chance he tries to make all- or in any case be up there with Paddy The Oscar. He stays much further than this and if he could bounce back to that Warwick form from earlier in the season, he would be in the mix here for sure. It is a moderate race. There are a few younger/unexposed ones but at his price I will have ago, and see if we can make it 5/12.
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8 Responses
How big is that telly Josh? Ha-ha! If it’s any consolation it seemed like every man and his dog was tipping her today.
Not big enough Ben!! Ha. I think she may just be getting to the line now! Blimey. I don’t think she has handled the ground with that weight..the latter a niggle but well worth a go at 10s I thought- when she wasn’t punted into around 5s, which I did expect, i did wonder- suspect connections may have thought similar. Turns out a very very slow plodder with no weight was all you needed! Damn. One back for the racing gods.
Couple interesting in the first at Chepstow……
Ali Stronge’s Midnight legend mare Drewmain Legend. Been waiting for this to make an appearance since first hurdles run about 4 weeks ago. Looked like she was dropping out after 2 or 3 jumps and would eventually either fail to finish or end up hopelessly tailed off. But if you kept watching you’d have spotted this lone horse running on from absolutely nowhere into a well beaten 4th .. It may be that she was clueless on that first run till the penny dropped, or needs further and will never be able to go any early pace over 2 (as you might expect from a ML). Kind of hoping for the 2nd of those here and getting well beat again then showing true ability in a couple of runs time at a big price. FC 25-1 for tomorrow doesn’t look generous enough to turn tables with the favourite but if she goes off at 100+ on BF it may be worth 2 quid to see if the heavy ground plays a part in a turnaround.
The other is Nigel Hawke’s Shantou mare Sapphire Noire. Gethings booking might suggest she is the most expected of the 2 and he knows how to ride to conserve energy on heavy ground. Difficult to tell if this will still be a learning run, only 4 and may need time, and again potentially needs further, but the jockey + obvious form of the yard may make her interesting if big but not too big. Current 25 forecast is not generous enough on the face of it and again something bigger on BF could be worth watching out for.
Well the forecast on these 2 now puts them at roughly 14-1 and 18-1 and is more testament to the potential overall weakness of the race than their proven or implied ability.
I’ve long thought that Whipcrackaway (4.20 Chep, generally 20-1) had another hurdles race in him. This class 5 would be just about the best opportunity for a while and being the outsider of the field may be incorrect.
Night Alliance 4.50 probably just about priced right at 10 or 11-1 to gain another heavy ground victory
Over To Midnight worth watching 5.15 Ludlow. Should hopefully be beaten out of sight hence lining up the potential for a later 66-1 appearance over suitably further in future. Some of the others have good level of ability so not much chance of this going ‘wrong’
Ready ought to walk the 2.20 Wolv from the front but unbackable at likely odds
Ryedale Rio and Loumarin both interesting 1.50 Wolv. with Rio looking best value though maybe more chancey. Never ran at Wolves and good run last time at Southwell may have been because better suited to the track. If Rio doesn’t like Wolv then may get better odds afterwards back at Southwell or on soft somewhere in the spring. If he takes to Wolves then could easily/ultimately end up being 1 or 2 grades better than a class 6.
The Bushranger filly Who Told Jo Jo looks too big at 16-1 in the 4.00 Wolves, while Cosmic Ray could be ready to make a dent in the first 3 in the 5.00. Last run at Ling was promising. Would hope for a little higher than the current 20s and probably will leave it unless at least 30 on BF.
The Michael Winters runner 4.05 in Ireland Jimmys Choice might be interesting. Sired by Jeremy may be suited by this ground and 2nd handicap could show a different side. 33-1 fair
Gavin Sheehan gave Drewmain Legend what might be described as a ‘considerate’ or perhaps ‘educational’ ride Stephen, doubt that she even realised that she was in a race!
One more spin over 2m somewhere and then perhaps up half a mile somewhere like Fakenham on handicap debut?
One to keep an eye on for sure.
Yep Alistair. Kind of similar to last time. Got totally ‘outpaced’ or allowed to coast at around mid race, though within a hurdle had made up about 5 or 6 lengths again. Hopefully this will guarantee being off the radar until the right race/day.
On another point – I considered the other Stronge runner and ruled it out. That was a huge scare when he seemed to be fairly full at around 2 out and I glanced at the BFSP of about 450!!
help, cant get into the subscription side anymore despite renewing at new rate.
Hi Robin, I will email you… seems to be some gremlins for some reason, a few have had issues…something with comms between paypal/amember.. find for most, but a handful have had problems… will sort asap…