We all love an Ante Post Bet…
…Isn’t a comment that applies to me sadly. (I don’t think i have the psychological make-up for betting on a horse more than 2 days+ before it runs!)
But, I am quite aware than many of you shrewdies like to play in such Festival markets. And,a couple of you have emailed/messaged asking if I can set up a page where you can all discuss your AP fancies.
So, here it is.
A couple of rules…
Any AP pick you post must be accompanied by some reasoning, if only a few words. Otherwise, there isn’t much point in my opinion. I mean I would like to learn something, being selfish. 🙂
All comments should relate to the Festival Only.
Right, over to you!
Josh
47 Responses
Ok lets start the ball rolling…..
The bets I have had so far ante post for Cheltenham are as follows…
Tuesday
– Supreme novices -Lough Derg Leader (backed at 20’s on the thursday got stuffed at ascot on the Friday went out to 33’s 40’s in a place aarrghh!!
– Neon Wolf at 12-1
– Arkle – Min at 7-2
Nothing at the mo on Wed/Thurs
Friday
– Triumph – Landofhopeandglory 14-1
– Gold Cup – Don Poli EW at 50-1 (backed it to win last year)
Native River at 8’s
feel free to knock em….
Cheers Stephen…and for the likes of me who never bets AP, do you mind expanding, briefly, on the thinking behind some of those! no worries if not. But, I can’t know them if I don’t know why haha. 🙂 I assume on the whole that is just using your eye and taking a judgement on their performances this season, or knowing they may be aimed at race again (ie Don Poli) But, you may have spotted a trainer trend, or something in breeding say… Some more obvious above than others I suppose.
Hi Josh
My reasons for backing the above Ante Post for Cheltenham are :-
– Lough Derg Leader – Trainer Nicky Henderson has great record in the race. The horse itself I believe from what I read was Hendersons main novice at the beginning of the season and with two decent wins early doors looked a decent bet at 20’s.
– Min – Was a little similar to the above, with Willie Mullins trainer stats in recent years being noteworthy, I know he was beaten last year in the supreme by Altior (who is in opposition again) but I always remember listening to Ricci Rich (sorry Rich) and Willie Mullins singing his praises before he even ran as a novice, with talk of him being on a par with Douvan, rarely do they talk em up but if they do they are generally good.
– Landofhopeandglory – Looked to me to have had a similar profile to last years winner trained by the same man Joseph O’Brien unofficially.
– Don Poli – To my eyes should have been 2nd last year, but was given a shocker by Davy Russell when well fancied. If you look at this years renewal, apart from Thistlecrack and Native River (who I will get to later) nothing has come out as a serious contender.
Don Poli had a shocker 1st time out this season hence the drift out to 50’s but he had just changed stables and had the cheeckpieces fitted, which he took exception to, came out in the lexus next time in December and ran a blinder 2nd. His Cheltenham record is 2 wins and a 3rd from 3 runs at the festival ( a line I do like) value at 50’s can get 33’s now.
– Native River – I think Thistlecrack could be vulnerable if the ground comes up soft or worse, I know he’s a bit of a freak of a horse, but he is keen enough for me for what can be a gruelling race. Native River is at the top of his game at present and to me is the only one who could expose any chink in the Favs armour.
I’ll kick it off with Mall Dini for the Ultima
This run at Gowran tomorrow (26th Jan) is probably over too short a trip (2m) and looks like one which will protect/keep his mark down/allow him to qualify.
Should be noted that he fits all but one (1-5 chase wins) of the “winning profile” criteria from last years trends and stats guide.
Won Pertemps last year off 139 beating Arpege D’Alene (now rated 140) so I assume a similar chase mark (should be under 149 to fit with the “winning profile”). 25/1
Also look out for Kelly/Rusell double with Presenting Percy in the Pertemps too, almost identical path to that of Mall Dini last year and both been campaigned with solely these races in mind. 33/1
Life changing double is 883/1 with betfair.
I like both those Matt. Might need to get involved. Will be interested to see what mark the UK handicapper gives them both as no doubting in my mind that you’ve got the right targeted race, and Presenting Percy was given a ‘qualifying’ ride if I ever saw one in his last race. Holywell won’t be far behind Mall Dini mind.
Related I was interested in an article today in the Weekender. Summary was that Gordon Elliott has entered a boat load of horses at Cheltenham this Saturday who won’t run, and he’s doing so to see what mark the UK handicapper gives them relative to their Irish counterpart. Of all the entries the ones that jumped out to me were Diamond King, Tycoon Prince and Automated. Diamond King (mark 150) won the Coral Cup off 149 last year with a great ride, and can see him going for the Brown Plate over 2 1/2 miles. Likely to re-oppose Long House Hall the 2nd in the Coral Cup again. I don’t think he will be good enough for the Champion Novice events so at 25s with PP I’ve had a bet. The other ones I liked were Automated (rated 142) which would mean he would get him into both the Pipe Conditional Hurdle or the Coral Cup. He won nicely over 2 1/2 miles last time out trainer thinks a lot of him, but he’s not quoted for either right now I don’t think. Probably a stronger bet is Tycoon Prince (rated 137) who I think Elliott was quoted as saying ‘might be the best handicapped horse in the yard’. He’s 25’s with Bet 365 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle. 137 might not be enough to get him into the Coral Cup but probably will for the Conditional Hurdle, with which Elliott had the well backed but ultimately unplaced favourite last year. So my big price double at c. 500/1 would be Diamond King (Brown Plate) and Tycoon Prince (Martin Pipe).
Mark Howard likes him as well. This is taken directly from his February update:
“Last year’s Pertemps Final winner MALL DINI has failed to win any of his four races over fences this winter but he remains a horse of considerable interest with the Festival in mind. Unbeaten in two point-to-points, the Milan gelding reached a mark of 140 over hurdles having beaten Arpege D’Alene by three parts of a length last March. Switched to chasing, Pat Kelly’s charge has been placed in all four races behind the likes of Haymount, A Genie In Abottle, Edwulf and Great Field. Two of those races at Punchestown came over two and a half miles, while his latest effort was over the minimum trip. One can’t help feeling that he is being prepared for the Festival once again and will be a different proposition over three miles plus. Interestingly, he hasn’t been entered in either the JLT or RSA Chases but he does hold an entry in the National Hunt Chase over four miles. That may well be the target but one suspects he is more likely to be aimed at one of the three miles plus handicap chases, namely the Festival Chase on day one or the Kim Muir over an extra two furlongs on the third day. Davy Russell, who has such a superb record at the meeting, wouldn’t be eligible to ride him in either the four miler or Kim Muir and has ridden him on his last ten starts. I attended a Festival preview at Cheltenham’s football ground last March on the eve of the four day fixture and Russell was on the panel. While he was keen to play down Mall Dini’s chance in the Pertemps Final, he did say the gelding was very much one to follow once switched to fences. Infact, he likened him to triple Grade 1 winner Last Instalment. I am convinced we haven’t seen the best of Mall Dini over fences thus far – that may all change in the middle of March.”
Aside from Mall Dini (and Holywell) the other one for me in the Ultima Chase is Champers On Ice. Hardly a dark horse I know and has been backed over the last week after a pretty sympathetic staying on ride over 2.5M Cheltenham. Owner/trainer won this race last year and Pipe will have a number lined up for the Festival. Champers was 3rd to Uknowwhatimeanharry in the 3M Novice Hurdle at the Festival and no problems with course & distance. Mark is very workable. Can see this one going off favourite. Can be backed NRNB at 12s with WH or B365 or 16s with others.
Hi Josh,
To help kick off I backed Moon Racer for smallish stakes at 50/1 each-way for the Champion Hurdle, he’ll most likely head for the Supreme (AP fav) but now that Annie Power is out the temptation might be greater for Pipe to change tack and if Faugheen flops on comeback this weekend…… Moon Racer was only beaten when given an average ride by Mr Codd at Punchestown and is already a festival and multiple Cheltenham winner so 50s each-way was good enough on the chance that he’ll go for the big one. Speculative yes, but that’s ante-post betting!
You could be on a good one there with Moon Racer for the champion hurdler
Maybe, has to get a run first, this all comes from following the progress of the first five home in the Cheltenham bumper each year, something I learned from Nick Mordin many, many, MANY years ago!
Remember that. Wish he was still around.
What happened to Nick Mordin?
Reportedly got a (secret) position with some high profile operation, I’m guessing something in the bloodstock line (probably in an advisory capacity). Never seen anything but a rumour, and there’s nothing to be found online that says what it is/was.
I have backed altior at 2/1 for he armless simple reason he’s a machine,he’s a cert and will hack up
I thoroughly enjoyed this comment.. 😀
watch out for Getabird in the Champion Bumper. The best of Mullins Bumper horses this year and that’s the best form you could have. Will hack up today at Gowran. Although he’s priced accordingly now for the Champion Bumper.
I don’t completely agree that Getabird is Mullins best Bumper horse this year
The one that that has really caught my eye is Carter Mckay who easily beat
Bakmaj on debut and that horse franked that form by hacking up next time
so the form looks solid.
Carter looks a stout stayer which will come in very handy at Cheltenham
and at a much bigger price(14/1) than Getabird(9/2) is the one that stands out
he went off 1\2 on debut so it shows in what high regard they hold him.
On quick ground he could be tapped a bit for toe but the price allows a bit leeway
Sorry guys for the Arkle
I dont do much in the way of AP bets but have had £5 e/w on Minella Rocco for the Gold Cup given WH are NRNB and still offering 33/1. Seems to want 3m2f+ and seems a better horse during the spring and that run LTO when falling behind Many Clouds doesnt look as bad now. Plus he is a festival winner. McCoy said when he retired that this would be the one horse he would miss riding. Obviously he has underachieved last year (despite winning the National Hunt) and do appriciate he doesnt fit a lot of the trends but had to have a small go.
Josh can we bump this page up nearer the top of the reading list please. Only 6 weeks to go.
Hi Steve, ah yes I have just worked out how to reschedule it again. It does live in the free reports/systems section, first post,also.
Josh
Very commendable thread and respect to all of those that go down this rout – I don’t and here are my own reasons why, may be right may be wrong.
(1) There are to many variables ; I like to know what’s running; be sure it’s running; who is the jockey; what the Going is and what form the Trainer is in – not just in the week before, but play a watching game on the Tuesday.
(2) I honestly don’t think the value is there AP any more as you get silly offers on the day like “Back Thistlecrack to win at 10/1 if you do – “this that or the other”
(3) I’d rather study the form and have the fun of that, look at my 2-3 trusted Tipsters including TTP/Josh + Nick Hardman; SP2A Elite and Nick Pullen – all excellent at Festivals – and then make a decision based on all the above. I’d rather be on a 20/1 horse who ticks all the boxes on the day, than have an old ticket on something that has no chance as it needs GS and its poured with rain for a week.
Respect if you do and we all have different opinions and great that we do.
I agree with you on most of that and I find the best time to bet is the week before with NRNB
The bookies are falling over themselves to get business and there is real value
In fact with a lot of books nearly 100% the bookies are not really playing the percentages at Cheltenham
they are hoping for a few longshots winning.
even if across the manor they are going 100% if a rag wins that is where the money is made.
The Cheltenham Handicaps are so tight that there is always a few races where they will get a result
to me Cheltenham handicaps are bookies races but if you must play then a look at the David Pipe and Tony Martin runners can pay dividends
The Pipe yard haven’t got the stars they used to when Martin was at his pomp but they still
have that desire to land a winner or two at the festival and no yard is better than laying out a horse for a handicap and while the main attention will be on moon racer I think the yard will try and sneak one in under the radar in the handicaps.
The same applies to Tony Martin who hasn’t got the star horses of an Elliott or a Willie Mullins
but is a master planner of betting coups.
So the week before the festival it is worth looking at all their handicap runners to see if there are any
unexposed horse who could be a possible lay out horse
and a look at some of their older out of form horses who have back form that you see them go close
these type can often be very big prices anti post
Took 70s down to 55s on the exchange (total stakes about £20) for Minella Rocco for the GC following Native Rivers novice win at Aintree on the basis that it looked really good that day and MR had beaten it well and I thought it would progress. looks a fair shout now with NR subsequent form and its run up until falling against Many Clouds under track/conditions it wouldn’t like.
Bellshill RSA 14/1 always looked a stayer and should have won the 3m hurdle at Aintree, Patrick gave it a poor ride.
Saturnas 20/1 Neptune stayed on well to win grade 1 over 2m at leopardstown looked like it would improve for a step up in trip. Same RPR as Finians Oscar which is a fraction of the price
DINARIA DES OBEAUX is by the same sire as APPLES JADE (Saddler Maker)
and she hosed up on soft ground before Christmas.
over 2 miles she is going to need very soft ground to bring her stamina into play and
at Cheltenham if the ground doesn’t come up soft to heavy she will struggle to go the pace
in the triumph hurdle, because this race is very hard on young horses it may be a mistake to even go for it on quick ground
If the ground is the usual festival good to soft, it would be prudent
to side step the race and wait for soft ground as
She will really only come into her own when going 2m4f in testing conditions
Remember Apples Jade got beaten in the Triumph last year but hacked up
at Aintree by a distance when the ground was soft.
APPLES JADE is favourite for the mares hurdle at a general 7/4
and while the 2M 5F trip will help I think on fast ground she should be a 4/1 chance
while on soft ground 6/4 would be about right
7/4 with no knowledge of the ground and also not knowing if Vroom Vroom Mag will be up against her makes those odds seems skinny
she will only be shorter on the day if the rains come and Mag goes for another race.
The Gold cup is now a puzzle, the superstar Thistlecrack was beaten for stamina
in his prep and the extra furlong could see him fading on the hill
of course Tizard may have not really have had him 100% spot on for the prep
and the likely better ground may see his class prevail but the out and out stayer Native River has done nothing wrong this year and looks sure to be staying on strongly up the hill.
with Thistlecrack not 100% sure of getting up the final hill it would be Prudent
for Native River to go from the front and make it a real test.
I expect Thistlecrack to be cruising turning into the straight and an in running play
could be the way to play because if he is cruising on the bridle at the bottom on the famous Chelteham hill
he could go very short in running but once he goes into the last two furlongs
that will be the real test.
If Native River is still in front turning in don’t give up even if Thistlecrack is cantering on the bridle at that stage because although Thistlecrack won the King George easily there were signs he was emptying a bit in the final furlong
with two furlongs extra to run a hill to face and a race run at an end to end gallop the price is wrong
Great stuff Peter.. I would just add something about the Thistlecrack race- I believe that due to rail movements the trip they ran over in that race was pretty much the Gold Cup CD. I suppose connections will be hoping the better ground helps, esp his speed near the top end. But agree he was out-stayed, and arguably out-battled- he has rarely had to battle so that is a niggle also. If Native River is upsides after the last, I would fancy him to fight him off, on that evidence at least. Not sure if a race I will be playing in but will see nearer the time. Should be a cracker.
Champers on ice national hunt chase 4m odds 20/1 is entered in two other races but I feel this is this horse best chance of festival glory.Had a easy win at uttoxeter on chase debut and then followed it up with a good 2nd at Warwick staying on well over 3m after having been outpaced down the back at Warwick.
Now it was out last week at Cheltenham over a real inadequate trip 2m 5f I’m convinced that was too give it course experience over the chase course there and too get its handicap mark down as low as possible .Was staying on when race was gone I’m sure Mr Pipe went down the same kind of road with un tempo per tout last season running it over inadequate trips too get a good handicap mark.The other 2 races it is entered on are grade 1 affairs and over 3m I’m convinced this horse will stay longer than the mother in law that’s my lowly opinion for what’s it’s worth.
Pipe ran Un Temp Pour Tout over 21f off 152 finishing fourth in late January.. He then won at Cheltenham over 3m 1f off 148. It looks like Champers On Ice needs extreme distances and i would agree the four miler looks like his only chance of victory. It wont matter about getting his handicap mark down because the four miler is not a handicap. His jumping might let him down.
Jessica Herrington now trains Supasundae. This horse has ran well in a festival bumper and a supreme hurdle. Last time out over an inadequate trip he was beaten by a well handicapped horse in Sutton Place(now fancied for Betfair hurdle). He won at Fairyhouse beating a fair yardstick in Monksland earlier in season. If Phil Smith doesnt put him up too much (146 at Present) i can see him running a big race in the Coral Cup. Corals have him at 33/1 which is bigger than the rest.
Is Don Poli the forgotten horse of the Gold Cup?
Doesn’t even appear as one of G Elliott’s stable stars on his website!
25/1 with Betway.
Yip bad mistake writing that horse off going back to champers on ice silly error I made thinking 4 mile chase was a handicap but I see entered in kim muir but will need to as you say brush up on jumping.
Taking a horse from the weekend project blubook I don’t think Mr Hughes will be on that one come cheltenham I horrible ride he gave that horse.Jp I see purchased that horse not long b4 that race now it was quoted in triumph but I think Jp has that well covered I think Fred winter will be it’s target 16s at moment and they way that horse was ridden at musselburgh I feel this one has still got plenty left too give and jj quinn knows how too get one ready for festival
Given its been a tragic three days of racing I’ve been looking forwards towards the festival. Given the Supreme is an absolute load of shambles this year and appears to be by far the weakest of the three races I was trying to find a bit of value. Melon is a bonkers price considering what he has done and Moon Racer beat very little in his last race and no horse has won the Supreme off such a long lay off although in fairness not many have tried. After that there are a whole load of unknowns. If the ground is good on the day I may consider Nicholls’ Capitaine if he turns up however given he is clearly ground dependant he makes a poor AP bet. The one I have focussed on is High Bridge. He was 5th in last year’s Champion Bumper when Coleman thought he was his best chance of a winner at last year’s festival. Has since moved over to Ben Pauling who I would rate as a better trainer than Ferguson. He has won both his hurdle starts this season and destroyed a 130 rated horse by 9 lengths LTO. He is lined up to run in a Newbury Novice Hurdle on Saturday which has been a good trial for the Supreme. In fact when staged at least 30 days before the festival horses who have finished in the top 3 of that race have gone 3/10, 5p at the festival opener the last winner coming out of that would have been Al Ferof. Trainer has said he will likely go for the Supreme instead of the Neptune although given WH NR Insurance concession happy to have £5 e/w at 25/1 with the firm. (so about 0.25pt e/w which is my standard for personal AP bets) If he wins on Saturday I suspect he will be shorter.
I don’t usually like giving tips away but just for you my selection for Cheltenham is Ask The Weatherman for the foxhunters chase 6/1.
Not a selection,but a selection method I have used with some success in the last couple of festivals.
Chase races, previous course winner,won last time out. 10/1 or less but not Favourite.
I don’t have the figures but I know I have profited by backing these selections e.w.
If anyone has access to a database etc maybe they could check the actual figures?
Forgot to say the horse must be same class of race as previous run
Need another bump Josh.
So many high profile horses missing from this years festival. Once again the bookies are in profit as all those anti post multi bets with Thistlecrack in them go down the shoot
Indeed we do Steve, thanks for the reminder!
The ground is the big imponderable at the moment – rained heavily again last night and if my back garden (8miles away) is anything to go by then going is unchanged since Trials Day. With so many multiple entered and late injuries then its a real midfield AP this season GL to those who have played
Please update after the (wet) w/e.
I’ve never liked antepost, as the ground could go against any horse and also the likelihood of a horse being withdrawn or injured a few months before and losing your money, also a horse can drift in the market on the day so you’re not really getting much more value than you would if you had them months before, very rarely benefits anyone
I’ve still got my Shergar to win Arc AP voucher as painful reminder of perils of AP betting – there used to be a big edge in the past but that seems to have been eroded over the years and with BOG on the day when the picture is clearer much less attractive to do AP. That being said there is still the thrill of holding a fancy priced slip for the Guineas over the Winter!!
Entries are out for the handicaps, with weights following next Weds.
The big news – Arctic Fire in the list for the County.
I suspect Mullins won’t have him ready for this. But some may remember a Mordin comment some years ago suggesting the horse was up to Champion class (before the 2nd in the race) with the suggestion that big fields may suit the horse better.
He’ll get that in the County for sure though if Mullins does get him there the odds are likely to be relatively unattractive. It would be some training feat though to get him to Chelt and win it!
Have backed Royal Vacation for RSA chase,doesn’t owe me anything after last 2 wins,so might as well follow him up the hill again,is improving chaser and has vital course experience
Interested to see some people commenting on the negative aspects of ante-post betting and linking it to the ground. There is a real skill to ante-post betting, but one obvious thing to avoid is backing a horse which is ground-dependant… this is a complete no-no.
However, anyone who believes you’re not getting better value several months in advance is deluded.
For example, the very first ante-post bet i had for Cheltenham 2017 was placed back in September when i was able to get a whopping 25/1 on Unowhatimeanharry for the Stayers Hdle.
Similar comments apply to vouchers on Yanworth (16/1 for Champion Hdle) and Defi Du Seuil (14/1 Triumph Hdle).
I must also admit to having backed Thistlecrack last April at 10/1 when the Tizzards indicated they would be targeting the 2017 Gold Cup… them’s the breaks!
Those are very well placed bets, great advance thinking. Uknow was clearly an especially inspired effort. Hope you’re on an EW treble too!
Though I think (and hope, for obvious reasons) Ch’Tibello (if it runs, and it’s a 50/50 if) may take out your Yanworth after the last 🙂
I’d tend to agree on ground requirements. With AP you either have to go the route you’ve suggested and find those top class runners that will handle most variations, follow the route of covering both bases (soft or good), or make a guess on what it’s going to be.
Back a month ago and further the odds would have been for the usual GS or G. Right now there’s a reasonable chance we could have proper soft ground.
But even now there are still opportunities – provided you can get the right target race!!
That’s the minefield for me – second guessing, interpreting comments, analysing runs to work out the most likely target. And you can’t believe everything you read, right?
So a few to consider:
Unlikely to be bothered by ground, but too short for single bets now…..(other than Airlie…and note today that we may have lost one of the big names from the mares hurdle which improves Airlie’s chances as long as she makes it to the start) …..
Uxizandre Ryanair
Airlie Beach Mares
Politologue JLT
Carter Bumper
V Soft to Heavy….
Nietzche Fred Winter
Agrapart Stayers
Handicappers….
Ballyhenry Kim Muir or Ultima
Double Ws Close Bros
Mister Miyagi Coral (will run an exceptional race if lining up I think, reasoning another time)
The left field big-priced runners that might place if on a going day (and on the right ground in some cases)….
Tell Us More Champion (if they’re sorted the left hand jumping, and we won’t know till the day I suspect)
Irish Cavalier Gold Cup (but ONLY if genuinely good)
Logic says no way but there’s always been a suspicion he’s almost up to it…
Theatre Guide GC
Already on most of the early ones posted on this and they’re looking good in some cases (thanks to those early posters, I hope we all fill our boots)
And finally a bit more on Ch’tibello.
I think he can do this.
The big problem…..
They’ve just given him some sort of palate op. And according to Skelton he’s now 50/50.
So if he lines up I think it’ll be worth noting.
They gave him the op because they thought he was going to do Yanworth from the last in the Kingwell.
And he didn’t pick up as anticipated.
They won’t risk him if he’s not right come March 14th, so if they do let him go there’s a chance the op could improve him a few lengths. And they’ll be expecting it to.
Glorious day here at Cheltenham sun and light breeze really drying the ground out, given the forecast for weekend think its going to be good to soft – after all my recent pessimism – infact wouldn’t fall off my perch if the taps go on sometime over the 4 days
Maybe a bit late for anti post but I have had Whisper on my radar for a long time.
This week the racing post published several trainer quotes and this was one of them.
Nicky Henderson, trainer of Whisper
I’ve been pleased with his two runs over fences this season, which have hopefully given him some confidence. I’m pretty sure he’ll go for the JLT, but the RSA does make you look. He can move up to three miles and is the one who has got me thinking most about which race. He gets on very well with Davy Russell.
Today Whisper was confirmed for the RSA and also Davy Russell was confirmed as the jockey.
I have took 8/1 and I am happy with that.
Heading down for 2 days tomorrow morning. Can’t wait. One I’ve added for tomorrow is All Hell Let Loose in the Novice Handicap Chase. Creeps in at the bottom, loves good ground, stable change to Henry De Bromhead has helped his jumping and no run since June either suggests a problem or laid out for a race like this on good ground. Brian Cooper rides for Giggonstown. Hoping for another Empire of Dirt and can be backed at 20s. I’ll take the risk that this has been the plan for a while.
Just to dampen my own enthusiasm, dug out an old Weekender article and All Let Loose picked up an injury and they wanted to get a run into him before Cheltenham which they obviously haven’t had a chance to do.