TTP Jumps Notes: 09/03/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + Irish bonus qual + notes + hunter chase test + bet of the day

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.45 Carl – Grove Silver WON 8/1>4/1 

2.55 Winc – Flaming Charmer 3rd 

Top 3

2.55 Winc – Dawson City WON 4/1>3/1 / Top Wood 2nd

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.55 Winc – Top Wood 

Top 3

3.45 Carl – Grove Silver 

2.55 Winc – Flaming Charmer

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

CARLISLE

3.45 – Grove Silver (hncp chase) 14,30 9/1 WON 8/1>4/1  (will declare at 8s,as 9s went quickly,10s generally available evening before also) 

 

WINCANTON

2.55 –

Dawson City (all hncps) 4/1 WON 3/1

Top Wood (hncp chase + micro going) 9/2 2nd 

Sartorial Elegance (hncp chase) 6/1 UP

Bears Rails (hncp chase) 13/2 UP

Flaming Charmer (hncp chase + runs this season) 11/4 3rd

5.10 – Dark Invader (NHF)6/4 UP

 

Bonus

3.35 Thurles – Coho (trainer/track/hncp hurdles) 20/1 UP 22/1… well, he goes in the ‘not very good’ bin.. could never hold a position which suggests that trip was too short and/or he just isn’t any good. His jumping was awful as well.

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

My Bet Of The Day … Test (1/6,1p = +5 / +6.4 bfsp)

3.45 Carl – Grove Silver... 8/1|9/1| 10/1 (BV/Betway) WON 8/1>4/1 

This looks a weak race to my eye where everything has some sort of question to answer and nothing else appeals at the prices in this race. This one is the biggest price on this page currently,bar the Irish Bonus one below (0/6,0 in career,lightly raced,not shown much,you never know!) , and a case can be made for sure…

I think it all hinges on three things, which combined are interesting.. firstly the 1st time visor – having had a dig, in handicap chases (including novice handicaps) Candlish is 4/21,10 places with first time headgear. 0/8 with cheekpieces, but 4/13,7p with blinkers or a visor- +28 BFSP, 2/9,5 places with a visor. the headgear of choice today. Also, this one has always seemingly run better when he has raced prominently. Well, he was up there the whole way for that Uttoxeter win, and I wonder, in first time visor, with a horse they know stays further, whether they will be ultra agressive on him. They should try. Danny Cook may want to do the same but his older legs, in this mud, may not quite keep up if our jockey boots him out. I can’t see him struggling to hold a position in this field, given the quality, IF the headgear works. He may hate it and run a shocker, but we get a price at least. They have held him up the last 4 starts and a change is tactics can work wonders for a horse. He also takes a drop in trip- he does seem versatile as to both distance and going, and around here in heavy, this could be hard work. Very hard work. And finally, the trainer couldn’t be in better form.

So for me, plenty of boxes ticked there at this kind of price. He could bolt up. He could. He is only 8 still. He could tail off. Worth a play for me to find out. Maybe he will be the new Basford Ben around here, for the same connections. The headgear will have to work though.

No other biggies to discuss really, not from the main selections..

Coho.. for the Irish stats… I will have a nibble at that price, prob BFSP although will keep an eye on to see if any money starts coming. He is lightly raced and still has time on his side. It is his first go over 16f in heavy, and this jockey rides for the first time which is interesting. The trainer can ready them after a break, 6/74,19p with handicap hurdlers 60+ days in the last 5 years…BUT.. when this jockey rides, such types are 5/28,11p.. so maybe a sign of intent, at a course he does well at with handicap hurdlers. The trainer is 0/16,0p in the last 30 days but he isn’t a 5/1 shot, he is 20s. There is enough there to roll the dice for me. A welcome boost for the Festival fund maybe…

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Quick note on TTP in regards to the Cheltenham Festival and ‘all qualifiers’. You may have noted in the stats pack that the Cheltenham stats exclude Festival runners and refer to every other meeting. Having pondered, I WILL NOT be pulling together a separate ‘track profile’ just for the Festival. I suspect in many cases the numbers will be too small and there will be plenty else going on Cheltenham wise, and it could all get a bit to much. So, in section 2 above,and as such anywhere else on the daily TTP posts, there will not be a reference to any Cheltenham runners. Now, of course, you may decide to use the existing profile to lead the way, and you have access to that in ‘exclusive downloads’ – it may well work wonders but those stats do not include any Festival runners. Hope that is clear.

 

NOTE: you will see me pushing my Festival Offer over the next few days. If you are reading this post you DO NOT need to do anything, you will have full access to everything as part of your existing Membership.

 

5. Hunter Chase Test 

Jockeys (33/1<)

4.55 Carl – Senor Alco

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…) (no such qualifiers today)

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

2 Responses

    1. ha. I didn’t watch the race, but believe they would have been 2-3-4 but for the clear leader falling at the last! Still, that’s racing. Can’t say I touched the race personally. Nor the tricast!

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