A Festival Freebie from me: Some trends/stats/micro angles CLICK HERE>>>
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TIPS
none. This really is the famine before the feast.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
2.40 Font – Mr Bachster
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares (any odds)
2.50 Catt- Bonnets Vino
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.50 Catt – NoMoreBlackJack
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Pace…Pace…Pace…
In one of Matt’s videos during his Geegeez Gold push he touched on a ‘pace strategy’ which in effect tried to find lone front runners who were also top rated on Dr Peter May’s Speed figures. I think this will be the main thrust of my approach this flat season- digging out those types. I dabbled with a ‘pace wins the race’ approach before on here to mixed success- before the speed ratings/draw/pace info was introduced I think. Anyway, I won’t be doing my ‘sprint handicap test’ again- I found that too tiring and mentally draining last flat season. I will still do some weekend trends for the big C2 cavalry charges, as there is something about them I can’t stay away from. But, during the week, this Lone front runner+speed rating+other supporting analysis, will be the way forward I think.
With that in mind there is one such ‘qualifier’ on ‘the sand’ today. Some caution as everything I touch on the AW does turn to sand…but…
2.00 Lingfield- ZABDI – 9/2 | 5/1
This is an awful level of racing,the type where a runner will get smashed in from 20s and hack up, having shown little that is probably now doing something different or finds themselves well handicapped.
But, the last day, at Kempton, Josie G dominated from the front on this one. It was his first try at 8f on the AW and he seemed to relish it. A 9lb rise would not have stopped him the last day for me, and I suspect that is why his price is what it is. The pace maps suggest, based on recent running styles, that she should be able to dominate again. They know he stays. This CD suits front runners. And he has a massive speed figure compared to the rest of these. My analysis of TTP results and Top Rated Geegeez Speed runners (that qualify against my stats pack) suggests Peter May’s figures have quite an edge, certainly over similar Top Rated runners using HRB ratings, which are not speed based. His ‘neural networks’ approach seems to work.
So the horse is in form. He is only 4 and now he has won, he may be able to go in again.
I read an interesting thought on what a first win can do for a horse… (or any win for that matter) the idea that they are showered with love after a win (more than usual)- everyone is happy, for a few days back home in the yard they are the star of the show, their lad/lass is more excited, there is a change in behaviour from the humans around them, etc. And seemingly that gets through to the horse.
He looks a fine big beast and if able to dictate again (something will probably now rush up on the outside!) he has every chance of following up, esp if she can kick turning for home. Of course he may not follow up, the rating may get him, but 9/2, 5s seems fair enough to my eye. The trainer is only 1/31,9p with LTO winners in the last 2 years. That is a slight concern. But he does deal with inconsistent/moderate horses on the whole. At least on paper this one should be open to more progress, esp at this trip, and I think the price is just about ok. I wouldn’t want shorter.
That’s him…
Gordon ‘could ride’ a catch me if you can double here…. WYYNFORD in the 5pm looks interesting.. he has no speed figure but has raced prominently on his last two hurdle runs and for old flat connections. That flat run at Haydock for Balding, in a C4, has worked out quite well, the second and 5th winning 5 races between them since. There isn’t any pace on paper here and the race is there to be stolen by someone. Maybe it will be SDS, but JC could try and dictate. His last two runs in novice hurdles have been shocking- I am unsure if intentionally so or he has issues at the moment. But if he got back to that Haydock form he could be very hard to beat, and has races ok on an AW surface before, although first run here. But, at 7s, I thought of mild interest. He doesn’t have a speed figure and he isn’t a nailed on front runner. But interesting.
That will be all for today, back to Festival mode…
28 Responses
Well I’ve never shied away from tipping horses in the twilight of their careers but tipping two 10 year olds on the all-weather is probably a personal milestone.
Firstly I like the look of Greyfriarschorista in the 14:00 at Lingfield. He drops down into a class 6 handicap for the first time in his life (5/8 in class 5 handicaps on the AW). He is now 10 lbs below his last win. His trainer puts the visor on for the first time since he was with his last trainer. The last time it was re-applied he won easily despite dwelling. The booking of Kirby was eye-catching given he is 7/22, 14p for Evans in handicaps at the Lingfield AW track since the start of 2015. Obviously stall 12 isn’t ideal but there isn’t a massive amount of pace on offer here so I think Kirby is good enough to get him in a prominent position and statistically it is the most profitable draw over course and distance probably since they are considerably under bet. Trainer going well enough.
I also want a a bet on Swiss Cross in the 16:30. The cheekpieces this winter have given him a new lease of life this winter and he has won 4 times since they have been applied including going 3 for 3 over course and distance. He is back to only 1lb above his last winning mark. He actually wasn’t disgraced in a class 2 LTO over 7f. Clearly gets on well with Cullum Sheppard (4/7 on the horse). He is back down to his preferred 6f. The draw shouldn’t be an issue given his running style. Sheppard comes here for the one ride. Trainer had his first winner since January on Friday so that shouldn’t be a problem and I thought he was over priced at 16s.
Seems as I was typing the price on Grey crashed from 14s to 8s
Nick, 430 Salvatore Fury is something of a CD specialist and was unlucky here last time and has a similar opportunity.
One of two rides for Phil Makin who must have a good chance on Scuzeme, in a poorly contested 0-95, at 4pm.
I would be put off by the fact that he is 1/27 in class 4s and Makin is 0/10 on him. Also the missing cheekpieces would be a worry. On the plus side Dalgleish is flying.
Yes… the visor is re-applied on G in the 2.00L Nick…. Evans is a clever placer of horses and has slipped down my ratings…so all the right messages are there.
Fontwell abandoned due to a waterlogged track
A 25/1 each way stab this evening, 8.15 KP, Never To Be. Does not seem a good race and this horse has some good form if you look back and may like the surface at KP?
hi josh
talking about peter may ratings , what on earth is a neural network ?
Oh way above my head, all very clever science stuff that I haven’t even bothered to get my head around- I don’t need to understand them really, it won’t improve how I use them! All explained on his own website. He has a Phd in artificial intelligence. I do know that he does not use standard times as a base measure etc, which I think many speed ratings may do. Probably hence the edge. No other speed ratings are like his I suspect.
Hi Martin
A neural network is a computer system based on how the brain works, it is used in Artificial Intelligence.
Chris
Sorry I meant Malcolm Not Martin.
hi nick, GREYFRIARSCHORISTA price may have slashed due to my £80 win on it last night! lol
I have Zabdi top of my ratings 2.00 L.
Now that’s another burden it has to carry Josh lol.
Tony Mc.
Where’s that lay button….
Bacon saved Josh…NR now lol.
With the only bit of guaranteed pace gone time for Kirby to prove why he is so good around Lingfield
Vale of Flight 6.15 K…..had it not had the outside draw…..it would have been a good EW bet. Trainer and Jockey flying….25/1 currently.
Oh you can’t be put off by draw at that price Tony!! If you have other supporting info, you must have something on, maybe a smaller wager, but if draw is your only negative, at that price…
The draw need not be a problem if he can show early pace to lead,by the way is last win came when up with the pace at Chelmsford,he has been held up last three runs. RIGOLETTO could trail blaze from a high draw here and he could tack on to him.
A bigger problem may be seeing out the distance.
Josh
have you received your free tips cheltenham guide?
It was due yesterday but ive had no e-mail
Yeah I haven’t got it either although mine said I was already registered when I tried registering.
same here
Hmm. I assumed they would send to those signed up last year, or maybe it is just a bonus for new list subscribers, as the mag usually goes to some other list I think- maybe those signed up to one of their paid portfolio…
One option is to dig out an old email if you can, unsubscribe, and go again.
Failing that, email me, and I can send you link if needed, although trying that option above will work wonders for us all! 🙂
Me too Nick
Yep must be something to do with old subscribers, assumed they would send out to old ones but maybe not – if you have not been receiving any of their regular free tips emails since last year maybe they binned that list.
Try unsubscribing if you can find a link and try again. failing that email me.
I signed up again to test etc (and I unsubscribed last year after a few days/receiving magazine) and they sent it out on Tuesday.
ive just e-mailed them at free tips and theyve sent me an attachment with
cheltenham guide
Hi josh
I see you say about the pace angle on the flat/aw.i used it a little bit last year whenever the bank was low I would look for all 4s on the pace if they had 2 or more speed ratings top 3 draw and speed .i had winners at 16/1 18/1 and 20/1 .i only followed it casually but it did look a good starting point for reasearch.hope we can find an angle there.
Hi Jamie, yep hopefully we can find a nice few winners through the summer months, esp 7+ where in general, esp if a smaller field, dictating a steadier pace can be easier. We should be able to find well drawn front runners no problem, with healthy speed figures, then just a case of piecing together other bits of the puzzle.
I certainly don’t want to be dabbling with C5/6 sprint handicaps from ‘cold’ again, looking at 10+ runner races, 1x 2x daily got a bit much in truth, mentally. So, we will give this idea a good trial out and see. Will be something of interest to read most days anyway!
Josh