A Festival Freebie from me: Some trends/stats/micro angles CLICK HERE>>>
none. This really is the famine before the feast.
Kerry Lee Chasers (12/1<)
2.40 Font – Mr Bachster
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares (any odds)
2.50 Catt- Bonnets Vino
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
2.50 Catt – NoMoreBlackJack
In one of Matt’s videos during his Geegeez Gold push he touched on a ‘pace strategy’ which in effect tried to find lone front runners who were also top rated on Dr Peter May’s Speed figures. I think this will be the main thrust of my approach this flat season- digging out those types. I dabbled with a ‘pace wins the race’ approach before on here to mixed success- before the speed ratings/draw/pace info was introduced I think. Anyway, I won’t be doing my ‘sprint handicap test’ again- I found that too tiring and mentally draining last flat season. I will still do some weekend trends for the big C2 cavalry charges, as there is something about them I can’t stay away from. But, during the week, this Lone front runner+speed rating+other supporting analysis, will be the way forward I think.
With that in mind there is one such ‘qualifier’ on ‘the sand’ today. Some caution as everything I touch on the AW does turn to sand…but…
2.00 Lingfield- ZABDI – 9/2 | 5/1
This is an awful level of racing,the type where a runner will get smashed in from 20s and hack up, having shown little that is probably now doing something different or finds themselves well handicapped.
But, the last day, at Kempton, Josie G dominated from the front on this one. It was his first try at 8f on the AW and he seemed to relish it. A 9lb rise would not have stopped him the last day for me, and I suspect that is why his price is what it is. The pace maps suggest, based on recent running styles, that she should be able to dominate again. They know he stays. This CD suits front runners. And he has a massive speed figure compared to the rest of these. My analysis of TTP results and Top Rated Geegeez Speed runners (that qualify against my stats pack) suggests Peter May’s figures have quite an edge, certainly over similar Top Rated runners using HRB ratings, which are not speed based. His ‘neural networks’ approach seems to work.
So the horse is in form. He is only 4 and now he has won, he may be able to go in again.
I read an interesting thought on what a first win can do for a horse… (or any win for that matter) the idea that they are showered with love after a win (more than usual)- everyone is happy, for a few days back home in the yard they are the star of the show, their lad/lass is more excited, there is a change in behaviour from the humans around them, etc. And seemingly that gets through to the horse.
He looks a fine big beast and if able to dictate again (something will probably now rush up on the outside!) he has every chance of following up, esp if she can kick turning for home. Of course he may not follow up, the rating may get him, but 9/2, 5s seems fair enough to my eye. The trainer is only 1/31,9p with LTO winners in the last 2 years. That is a slight concern. But he does deal with inconsistent/moderate horses on the whole. At least on paper this one should be open to more progress, esp at this trip, and I think the price is just about ok. I wouldn’t want shorter.
Gordon ‘could ride’ a catch me if you can double here…. WYYNFORD in the 5pm looks interesting.. he has no speed figure but has raced prominently on his last two hurdle runs and for old flat connections. That flat run at Haydock for Balding, in a C4, has worked out quite well, the second and 5th winning 5 races between them since. There isn’t any pace on paper here and the race is there to be stolen by someone. Maybe it will be SDS, but JC could try and dictate. His last two runs in novice hurdles have been shocking- I am unsure if intentionally so or he has issues at the moment. But if he got back to that Haydock form he could be very hard to beat, and has races ok on an AW surface before, although first run here. But, at 7s, I thought of mild interest. He doesn’t have a speed figure and he isn’t a nailed on front runner. But interesting.
That will be all for today, back to Festival mode…