FREE DAILY POST: 09/03/17 (Festival Offer) (comp)

Cheltenham Festival Offer IS LIVE! How exciting… (+ some jumps angles + MORE)

Festival Offer… IS LIVE 

Well, technology is never my strongest point but I think everything is working. Who wants to be the first to try out my Festival Offer?.. 🙂

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None. There are a couple of decent chases, or one maybe, but I won’t have time to look sadly for one reason or another. A quiet day, but there won’t be many of those soon.



Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

2.35 Carl – Dick Darsie (12/1<)

Dartford Warbler (12/1<)



That will be it for Thursday from me…. 

Having said the above I will just repeat my ‘notes’ section from the Members Post, as a bonus. I’m sure they won’t mind. There is also a headgear micro angle in here, someone note it down!! 🙂 So from the TTP stats…

My Bet Of The Day … Test… (1/6,1p = +5 / +6.4 bfsp) (1 point win)

3.45 Carl – Grove Silver… 8/1|9/1| 10/1 (BV/Betway) WON 8/1>4/1  (that is as good as you get from me I think, in terms of reading a race /value play, just need to do that more often) 

This looks a weak race to my eye where everything has some sort of question to answer and nothing else appeals at the prices in this race. This one is the biggest price on this page currently,bar the Irish Bonus one below (0/6,0 in career,lightly raced,not shown much,you never know!) , and a case can be made for sure…

I think it all hinges on three things, which combined are interesting.. firstly the 1st time visor – having had a dig, in handicap chases (including novice handicaps) Candlish is 4/21,10 places with first time headgear. 0/8 with cheekpieces, but 4/13,7p with blinkers or a visor- +28 BFSP, 2/9,5 places with a visor. the headgear of choice today. Also, this one has always seemingly run better when he has raced prominently. Well, he was up there the whole way for that Uttoxeter win, and I wonder, in first time visor, with a horse they know stays further, whether they will be ultra agressive on him. They should try. Danny Cook may want to do the same but his older legs, in this mud, may not quite keep up if our jockey boots him out. I can’t see him struggling to hold a position in this field, given the quality, IF the headgear works. He may hate it and run a shocker, but we get a price at least. They have held him up the last 4 starts and a change is tactics can work wonders for a horse. He also takes a drop in trip- he does seem versatile as to both distance and going, and around here in heavy, this could be hard work. Very hard work. And finally, the trainer couldn’t be in better form.

So for me, plenty of boxes ticked there at this kind of price. He could bolt up. He could. He is only 8 still. He could tail off. Worth a play for me to find out. Maybe he will be the new Basford Ben around here, for the same connections. The headgear will have to work though.

No other biggies to discuss really, not from the main selections..

Coho.. for the Irish Bonus stats… (3.35 Thurles) I will have a nibble at that price, prob BFSP although will keep an eye on to see if any money starts coming. He is lightly raced and still has time on his side. It is his first go over 16f in heavy, and this jockey rides for the first time which is interesting. The trainer can ready them after a break, 6/74,19p with handicap hurdlers 60+ days in the last 5 years…BUT.. when this jockey rides, such types are 5/28,11p.. so maybe a sign of intent, at a course he does well at with handicap hurdlers. The trainer is 0/16,0p in the last 30 days but he isn’t a 5/1 shot, he is 20s. There is enough there to roll the dice for me. A welcome boost for the Festival fund maybe…



Now,that will be all!



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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

19 responses

    1. Ah we do like problems in these parts! Nothing on my system says you have paid via ClickBank as yet? Follow the link or ‘become a member’ to the right and you set up a username and password and go through process. Unless you think you’ve done that… the tests I’ve done have all worked so hopefully not an issue. Josh

  1. Barring an easy winner on Sunday I’ve been firing blanks for the best part of three weeks so would be nice for the form to change for next week.

    I can’t let Red Baron go unbacked tomorrow in the 15:55 at Southwell. This time last year he was going close in decent class 2 handicaps and has now dropped to a mark of 87 and drops into a class 4 for the first time in almost 2 years. He has yet to race at Southwell but you would think his racing style should suit. The blinkers go on here and the previous two times they were put on for the first time resulted in two solid runs. Hart is 1/4, 2p on him including 1 for 1 on the AW. This is his only ride at the track before heading off to Newcastle. Alston is in good form and his last five runners have gone 20221. He could be completely out of love with the game but there is enough reasons there to take a shot at a big price.

    I also want an e/w bet on Quarry Wizard in the 13:50 at Wincanton. This looks like a really bad race and most of them have either failed or never raced on heavy ground whereas the selection was a close 3rd over this ground and distance three starts ago. On his last 2 starts he has raced in relatively hot class 4 contests (1st and 6th from his last race have won class 4s and 3rd and 6th from his race two starts ago have also won). Jamie Moore comes over for just the one ride and he has finished in the top 4 in 9 of his last 12 starts. The trainers 2 2nds in the past fortnight represents better form than a large proportion of her competitors. He has been dropped 3lbs, drops in class and returns to heavy ground which he seems to enjoy. I just thought 20/1 was a bit of value in the context particularly when we get paid for the first 4.

    1. Can only assume something went amiss considering the winner was 7 lengths behind him at Lingfield even if there was a 4lb swing in the weights.

  2. Two musketeers for me today. 150 Wincanton – Thepartysover and 255 Wincanton – St Dominic.
    First one runs of very low mark and I think he can run on heavy. The second one I got 20/1 and I think he shouldn’t be this much of an outsider. Conditions to suit, fair mark – good Ew bet for me! EW double as well 🙂 let see how they do!
    Good luck to everyone.

  3. Two stand out in my opinion in the 1.50 at Wincanton as both have soft/heavy form being Cheltenham De Vaige and Homers Odyssey, just prefer the latter on account of the good form of the Trainer recently.

    On a separate note; sad to see Dandy Nicholls giving up Training, clearly a lot going on behind the scenes there; that are best left alone in terms of any comments on a public blog, has been a great jockey and trainer in the past; and remains to be seen whether he may have some role in the sport in the future.

    One thing is for sure is that a lot of good Sprinters are going to be finding new homes and may be an angle to follow?

    1. Hi Ian, yes I saw that on twitter yesterday, had no idea. Very sad indeed. Are you aware of what has gone on, any hint?? Or is that elsewhere in the public domain.. I just assumed he couldn’t make it pay anymore/possibly had a lot od debt/some kind of business finance issue.
      All seemed a bit abrupt publicly but clearly something has been simmering for a while?
      If there has been a depressed mood in the yard for a time, that will have rubbed off on the horses to an extent, which means a change of scenery may spark up a few of them, and many could be well handicapped. He used to do well during the winter on the AW, plenty of runners, but this winter not many at all from memory, certainly not winners?

      Yep will be interesting where they all go, and where owners send them. And if said trainers have a good record with new recruits. Not sure how many he has left now .

      1. If you are not aware Josh, then Dandy was charged by the police last year over cases of assault and the cases are pending.

          1. Hi Josh
            Dandy Nicholls had tweeted after Sovereign Debts win ‘That is the last Winner from Tall Trees due to Financial and Family commitments,I will not be continuing Training from Tall Trees.


      2. Josh, as Chris R as pointed out a looming Court case and from memory not the first time allegations of this type have been made but nothing ever proven and probably best left there. Its impossible to tell these days who the baddies are and who aren’t baddies but accused by gold-diggers…sad reflection of the age we live in.

        I will be putting as many of his string as I can find in to my tracker though – be interesting where they go but would be very interesting to see if O’Meara; Fahey; Migeley pick any up!

  4. just looking at all the Cheltenham bookmaker offers and a couple stand out:
    skybet all losing bets (up to £20) on the 1-30 everyday refunded as free bet.
    betvictor (new customers) place £10 bet and get a free £2 bet on every Cheltenham race or place £10 bet and get £30 of free bets.
    bet188 stake £10 get £30 in free bets.
    please add any others you think people might find interesting.

  5. I see Grey friarschorista is going again in the 3.20 S/well
    It was badly bumped 2 furlongs out yesterday…..gotta have a nibble.

    1. Yeah that bump hurt. It doesn’t have much past form with quick re-appearances so have left it myself but good look with your bet.

        1. That was a class higher than yesterday though so wouldn’t discount it just yet unlike the good Baron who doesn’t want to know.

  6. Hi Malc, I will look into this… just deleted the comment given you put your details in there, not that anyone on here would steal such things! I will email you also.

  7. Yep Grove Silver was an excellent hit, Josh. In a month of Sundays I wouldn’t have backed it over two and a half against that field without your pointers. Thanks.

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