TTP Jumps Notes: 10/03/17 (complete)

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

3.20 Ayr – Tomahawk Wood

5.35 Ayr – Another Mattie

2.55 Leic – Ballinvarrig

4.15 Sand -Artifice Sivola

Top 3

3.20 Ayr- Andhaar

5.35 Ayr- Top Billing

2.00 Sand- Kastani Beach 

3.40 Sand- Fly Camp

Geegeez Gold

Top Rated

3.20 Ayr- Christmas In The USA (RP 10/1+)

5.35 Ayr- Another Mattie

3.40 Sand- Kayf Adventure

Top 3

3.55 Ayr- Bennys Secret

3.30 Leic -Allthegear No Idea

2.00 Sand – Kastani Beach

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

AYR

3.20 –

Christmas In The USA (micro class) 14,30 10/1 UP 16/1

Tomahawk Wood (hncp hurdle) 7/4 UP

Andhaar (micro class) 14,30 8/1 UP

3.55 –

Un Guet Apens (all hncps + hncp hurdle+micro distance) 6/1 2nd 8/1

Bennys Secret (micro class) 14,30 15/2 3rd 

Chapel Stile (micro going + runs this season) 13/2 UP

5.35

Another Mattie (micro class) 14,30 6/4 WON 5/4

Top Billing (micro going) 9/2 UP

LEICESTER

2.55 – Balinvarig (all hncps) 14,30 13/8 2nd 

3.30 – Allthegear No Idea (all hncps + micro class + runs this season) 8/1 2nd 9/1

SANDOWN

2.00-

Kastani Beach (hncp hurdle) 11/2 2nd 4/1

Silverhow (micro going) 9/2 WON 7/2

3.40 –

Knight of Noir (all hncps) 30 20/1 UP 25/1

Kayf Adventure (hndp hurdles) 14,30 11/10 3rd 

Fly Camp (micro going) 5/1 UP

4.15 – Artifice Sivola (hncp chase) 9/4 UP

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Good to get back to back winners with my ‘bet of the day test’ at 10s and now 8s the last two pics, more than making up for my poor start. Now 2/7,2p +13 points  to morning/bog odds, 1 point win.

My Bet of The Day… test

3.20 Ayr – Christmas In The USA – 10/1 

Well, he is a no brainer for the systematic followers given he is a ratings pointer horse and 10/1+, so ticks that box for that strategy. He was 8s but as I was typing at around 8.30 went to 10s in 5 or so places, so he officially counts! He is also Top on Geegeez Speed, and if you are going to blindly follow just one of the ratings pointers angles, regardless of odds etc, Top Rated Geegeez appears to be the one,but those stats are building up all the time.

What about the horse? Well he is in the ‘could be anything category’, and to repeat my favourite phrase with such types ‘including being useless’. He has the odd bit of French form in the mud and is lightly raced over here, making his handicap hurdle debut. Alexander is 2/19,5p in the last 2 years so while not a supporting stat to get excited about (unlike Kim Baileys the other day) it is not a reason to be put off, which is just as important sometimes. He steps back up in trip – I like a distance move- and the hood goes on here. I think he has been a keen sort. He will need to settle to get home in this bog so the early part of the race will indicate whether by bank may be going to +23, or +12. He has had a break since his last run, maybe to get over his fall and/or to put some hard training into him. His odds suggest he wasn’t there to run well in those maiden/novice hurdles. The trainer is also in cracking form, 5/9 the last 14 days, so an eye on all his today. Knowing me I have picked out the only one of his that won’t go close! He can ready them after 60+ days also. No problem there in the context of his price.

So, he has an interesting profile. In what isn’t a deep race. One of the others in here may win for us but Tomahawk won at 9s for us the last day and is too short here for me and Andhaar is getting on, doesn’t win very often, and has never raced on heavy. An unknown.

I wouldn’t want less than 10s I don’t think, he may well drift to a bigger BFSP or there will be some late money. He will do.

He looks likely to be the only ‘RP 10/1+’ qualifier on that strategy although potential horses to set a 11.00 minimum on BFSP include Andhaar, Bennys Secret and Allthegear No Idea.  The rest look unlikely to get there unless some massive drifters…

Bigger priced monsters..

Well, Knight of Noir is 20/1… he comes up against a few in form unexposed ones here and the market suggests bar a fall Hobbs’ charge is going close. He has been in shocking form over fences for his new trainer but does revert to hurdles, and IF he repeated his best hurdles form for Pipe, he would out-run these odds. If. He is one of those that has old form that if repeated may be worth something. Only his 9th hurdle start also. Those types are dangerous to put a line through and while my focus is on ‘RP 10/1+’ and I bet them accordingly now, I like to throw something at these bigger priced ones not in the RPs if you can make some sort of case. If you ignored his last three runs you could. He does just look out of sorts but at least is doing something different in reverting to hurdles. I won’t go mad but will have a tickle on the machine BFSP. And probably save the bigger stakes for the Saturday biggies, given we have seen what they can do.  Clearly i expect him to go nowhere close, but you never know.

I think that is it for today from me.

Good luck with whatever you go with.

4.Any general messages/updates etc

REMINDER: That if you are unsure how to approach the content on these pages please read through the last monthly results update which should give you some ideas: You can read that HERE>>>

ALSO NOTE: I plan to complete all stats research by close of play Friday. I have some notes for the RSA/Albert Bartlett/National Hunt chase to type up, some sort of ‘winning profile’ for them all. They are all 3m+, which is why I focus on them I suppose, as bonus races in addition to the handicaps. Slowly getting there.

Your Festival Resources post can be found HERE>>> (work in progress)

I will also add up some stats/trends/winning profile for any Saturday races, and will see if anything jumps out in the Imperial Cup. Those will be on free posts, given I am blocking everything else off next week.

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KEY:(applicable across the blog) 

H1/H3 = HorseRaceBase Top Rated or Top 3 Rated (at time of posting)

G1/G3 = Geegeez Gold Speed Ratings (Dr Peter May) Top Rated or Top 3 Rated

14,30 = Geegeez Gold ‘trainer form’ indicators. 14 – 5+ runs last 14 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr. 30 – 10+ runs last 20 days, 20% win sr OR 51%+ place (inc wins) sr

NOTE: In the ratings pointers above, BOLD indicates a ‘double qualifier,against both ratings’ in RED is a ‘double top rated qualifier- they are 3/4 so far…) (no such qualifiers today)