TTP Results Update: End Feb/2017 (comp+Video)

A ‘short’ video overview/run through. Yes yes, I wanted it to be 5-10 minutes, but you guessed it, 24 minutes it is. I should give up trying to record short videos! Anyway, the time flies by, promise. You can of course just read what’s below the video. In the video I just talk through this post, elaborate in places and try to make it humorous in parts… 

1.Links To Spreadsheets

• ALL Qualifiers (section 2 from daily posts) Click HERE>>>
• Ratings Pointers (section 1 from daily posts) Click HERE>>>

2. Analysis

Right, where to start…

Let’s just re cap on the Members Club to date, when the TTP Jumps Notes daily posts came into being, at the start of October 2016. 

• All Qualifiers (section 2 of daily posts) were +65.77 points (Early prices/Bog) come end of 2016. 
• In 2017 All Quals, end Feb, as per spreadsheet above, are +45.61 (BFSP,wasn’t recording that before 2017)…
• So, a Total to End of Feb of +111.38 points, if you just backed every horse in section 2. In 2017 that has been a 10% Return On Investment. Not bad, but we could do better… 

RATINGS POINTERS (section 1 of daily posts) 

Re-cap… the use of HorseRaceBase and Geegeez Gold ratings was a way to try and improve the sophistication of any shortlisting, taking human subjective judgement out of things. At it’s core this is a trainer stats, systematic approach to betting. That is what it is judged on. The stats do not take account of the horse, or the horse in the context of the race, in any way shape or form. The ratings do. It was hoped they would decrease the number of bets, drive up win% and profit/ROI…

• From introduction on 9th December to the End of 2016, they made +42 points (Early/BOG)
• In 2017 to date, at End of Feb, they are on +23.15 points. Meaning a grand total of +65 points 
• That is from around 308 bets or so,  around a 21% Return On Investment
• That is if you just backed them all. 

Next, it was clear given there are no odds caps, that the stats have and will find big priced winners, that actually are responsible for most/all of the profits.

10/1+ APPROACH

This is simple…I look at the prices generally available in the morning (the ones I put next to a horses name when I remember) and if they are 10/1+ they qualify at that point, or also if they drift out to 10/1+ ISP.  A horse also qualifies if it is sent off at 10/1+ at Betfair Starting Price… 11.00. You can enter these minimum odds when placing the bet, and you bet will only be placed if the horse hits this price. This approach covers any drifters, such as Kim Bailey’s on Sunday. 

So…

• In Jan, the 10/1+ qualifiers were a staggering… 16/116, 14% win, +158.40 points BFSP (after commission) We had struck gold… wait for it… 
• Here come the betting gods… In February they were 3/106, -71 points, BFSP. Gulp. That hurt. Many people left. But we soldier on…
• Having looked through from start of October, up to end of Jan, they were +260 points. 
• So, come end of Feb, backing all 10/1+ qualifiers, in Section 2, has won +189 points. 
• In 2017 to date that is 18/222 bets, 8% win, +87.40… 39% Return On Investment 
• (2x 10/1+ winners in March so far, BFSP 18.00 and 13.00, so those stats have been boosted somewhat…)

RATINGS POINTERS 10/1+ 

But, what about those 10/1+ shots that were also Ratings Pointers horses (in section 1 of daily posts) 

• In 2017 at end of Feb… 56 bets / 7 wins , 12.5% win SR, +47.05 points… 84% Return On Investment 
• They wiped their face in Feb, losing around 1 point. 
• So far in March, 5 days in, these qualifiers are… 2/4, +27 BFSP… so, 9/60, +74 points, makes for nice reading..*
• *It should be noted they include 1x 33/1 BFSP winner. But, they will find the odd biggie like that every now and again, and if you strip that out they stats still look decent!

RATINGS POINTERS TOP RATED

I have had a look at those Top Rated Runners, to see how they got on. Are they a place to focus? 

• In 2017 they are, combined, both HRB + Geegeez… 24/92, 26% win, +25 BFSP, +33 Early/BOG… 27% ROI
• HorseRaceBase tends to through up shorter priced ones. Dr Peter May’s Speed Ratings, access via Geegeez Gold with the permission of all concerned, seem to have an edge… which given he doesn’t use a standard approach to speed ratings- neural networks as opposed to standard times, that may be why…
• Geegeez Speed Top Rated (in section 1 of daily posts) in 2017… 12/53, 22% win, +22.5 BFSP, +29 Early/BOG…. 42% ROI

SUPER SATURDAYS?

• BLIMEY….
• Backing ALL Qualifiers on a Saturday in 2017 to date, inc first weekend of March, so 9 Saturdays…
• 124 bets / 20 wins / 16% win SR / +145.42 BFSP (incs winners at 33/36/49).. 117% ROI I think
• Ratings Pointers On Saturdays… 9/44, +45 BFSP (inc 33/1 winner)

And there is plenty of logic there I think. It makes sense for trainers to target races for when their owners can make it say – Saturdays at the races must be the best day out- esp when that is coupled with better prize money/higher quality races in general. It may well be random but it would appear the stats are highlighting those who like to do well on the biggest race day of the week. Interesting to monitor moving forwards. 

WHERE DOES THAT LEAVE US? 

I apologise at times if this all seems a bit ‘on the hoof’ in 2017 to date. Having now taken a proper approach to recording results since the start of the year, it is bringing some clarity to situation/opening my eyes. 

Some ideas, based on what we know…

Strategy 1 : Ratings Pointers 10/1+

• As a starting point, I am happy now I think to recommend sticking to the ‘Ratings Pointers 10/1+ approach’. If you are after one systematic approach, with no subjective thought required, I think that is the one to go with. They are averaging around 1 bet per day, and it is quite a stress free approach, especially compared with some of the others. There will be regular losing runs of 10, 20, and sometimes bigger. But, the winners make up for it, and you can see how quickly it can change in just 5 days of March… +27 points just like that… after a great Jan and a quiet Feb. 
• In 2017 to date… 9/60, +74 points… 123% ROI
• From this ‘systematic foundation’ you can then approach everything else as you please. That may be looking at Top Rated Runners in more depth, and especially Geegeez Speed Top Rated… and Saturdays…
• It may then be wise to keep an eye on any other big priced horses, especially the monster 20/1, 25/1+ shots. These have tended to win on Saturdays so far in 2017 but they will pop up every now and then elsewhere. We don’t like missing those!! That hurts. 

Strategy 2: Super Saturdays?

• Those Saturday Results are a bit mad in truth but they do cover ALL of the three monster so far this year, 33/1,36/1,49/1 BFSP. It may be too early to be definitive on this but it looks like a day to focus on, and there is logic for why the stats would do well on that day. And with more competitive fields, it means the prices may be generally bigger also. I should go through in finer detail but suspect a lot of the shorter ones pay for themselves and focusing on the 7/1, 8/1+ horses may be the place to focus. Up to end of Feb for example, those under 6/1 were 3/16, -6 points. 
• 124 bets / 20 wins / 16% win SR / +145.42 BFSP (incs winners at 33/36/49).. 117% ROI I think

Strategy 3: All 10/1+ shots

• Strictly speaking since the start of October these have been the most profitable I think, although not best on ROI. This approach is for the brave. They will have very good months, such as January, and awful months, such as Feb- where they lost 71 points. There can be long long losing runs between drinks. But, the evidence suggests that they will be profitable over time. There are many many losers, but the winners make up for it. And this will of course ensure that you never miss a monster priced winner. Although, using another strategy above and always backing 25/1+ shots say may help ensure that is the case also.

You may wish to combine elements of all of those. I have tried to present the information as best I can and having now recorded results properly, my eyes are being opened as to the best way forward.

As always, any questions or ideas from yourself are welcome.

I hope you have found that useful. I will update again at the end of March and get the weekly results updated too, asap.

Josh