TTP Jumps Notes: 06/03/17 (complete)

missed Lingfield! All Quals + RPs now… + notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.30 South- Malapie WON 5/2>6/4

5.20 Ling – Mr Muddle

 

Geegeez Speed

none.

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

SOUTHWELL

3.30 South- Malapie (all hncps + hncp hurdles) WON 5/2>6/4

 

LINGFIELD

2.20 – Arthington (NHF) UP

4.50 – Flugzeug (all hncps) 3rd 9/2>8/1, 12.35 BFSP

5.20 – Mr Muddle (hncp chase)

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

My Bet Of The Day … Test… (1/6,1p = +5 / +6.4 bfsp)

None.

Hmm. Well I shouldn’t bet for the sake of it, or nominate one for the sake of it..and I will leave it today. I can’t work out what to do with Flugzeug, and at 9/2, and when you are on the fence, probably best left. I like the fact McGrath takes over and his form here two starts ago- if he repeats that then he should be in the mix, although no 10lb claim this time- however the skill of this jockey may make up for that. He is 2/4,3p in handicap hurdles Or 81-90 and is on his last winning mark- but he isn’t below it as yet. The trainer has been cold for a while also, but there have been signs of life in recent days. I wouldn’t keep an eye on his yard in the next couple of weeks- sneaking in heavy ground winners when all eyes are on the Festival maybe. He has been running a few during this quiet spell and could have a few well handicapped ones now, or better handicapped ones. If he were a ratings pointer horse he may be of more interest, as he would be if he were 8s+ say. As it is I will leave personally. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won, and if he bolts up I will cursing.

Of the bigger priced ones… well Arthington is 33s.(well there will be worse ‘small change’ just in case bets,got the heart racing briefly as they turned for home,- some brief entertainment- but it turned into a sprint,and his legs couldn’t go any faster!)  You would think one of the top 3 in the market is taking this given the connections/horses profiles/recent form. This one was inexperienced and or badly out-paced on debut. I can’t think a crawl>sprint will suit around here. But I could be wrong. Trainer is 1/29 with ‘second time starters’ in last two years but that winner was a monster price. I won’t say he can’t win this, and given the odds may throw that trusty ‘just in case’ change at him. None left down the side of my sofa mind, I will have to look elsewhere!

Good luck if you go with anything today.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: post is a work in progress but links to spreadsheet up HERE>>>

 

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

      1. Yep sorry. Last night when glancing at cars in gold all in saw was the ‘standard’ in the going description and assumed it was AW meeting. As it happens the first is a NHF I think on the AW,and it is of course a jumps meeting! Will update asap.

  1. Under the car seat, Josh…or down the side of it in the middle where you have to push out that wedged in pound coin with a ruler.

    Arthington….over the years Mullins has banged in a few 20-1+ bumper winners…and we can see from exploits this year (and last) that he can bring through the good class handicap hurdler.

    There’s a chance Arthington could take this if he’s a little above average. That Kempton race should throw up winners here and there for the next few+ years.

    Problem is virtually every other runner can have a case. All trainers can ready bumper winners/placers in good numbers and the chances are at least one (and maybe 2/3) are above average.

    Mullins may have an idea where he is with Henderson’s thru Jubilympics. We have to hope Lucy Wadham’s Midnight Legend already wants further. Likely Don Cantillon’s filly can’t mix it with the boys yet.

    Even with those out, the others could still be anything.

    33s is about right for the risk/reward, arguably 25. But should be about 16 to 1 really.

    Haven’t got time right now but it may be worth searching back Mullins bumper runners that make their debut at a high grade track and see how they perform for a follow up at a lesser venue (not necessarily based on pure stats but see how they actually ran ie level of promise).

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