TTP Jumps Notes: 05/03/17 (complete)

All quals + ratings pointers + bet of the day- gulp…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated 

none.

Top 3

2.30 Hunt – Fifty Bob 3rd

4.00 Hunt – Blameitalonmyroots- UP

4.30 Hunt – Lithic WON 10/3>7/4 (was there a R4 there,assume so?…)

3.20 Sedge – Sun Cloud (only 3 runners) UP

5.20 Sedge – Wig Wam Wiggle (only 3 runners)

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated 

3.20 Sedg – Sun Cloud UP

Top 3

2.30 Hunt – Braw Angus WON 8/1>10/1, 13.00 BFSP (RP 10/1+ qualifier,a good weekend) 

4.30 Hunt – Lithic WON 

 

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

HUNTINGDON

2.30

Good Man Hughie (all hncps+hncp h) NR

Fifty Bob (hncp hurdle) 14,30  7/4 3rd

Braw Angus (hncp hurdle)14,30  8/1 WON 10/1, 13.00 BFSP

4.00 – BlameItAllOnMyRoots (hncp chase) 10/3 UP

4.30 –

Lithic (all hncps + micro runs this season) 10/3 WON 7/4

Ryeolliean (all hncps + hncp hurdle + micro age)  NR

5.30 – Second Time Around (NHF) 14/1-22/1

 

 

SEDGEFIELD

3.20 – Sun Cloud (all hncps) 6/4 UP

4.50 – Endeavor (hncp hurdle) NR

5.20 – Wig Wam Wiggle (NHF) 7/2

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

My Bet of The Day… Test (emphasis on that word) (0/5,0p)…

Well BRAW ANGUS is going to get the extra burden of my bet of the day expectation. But for Gary Moore’s coming out and the 25p R4 he would have been a ‘Ratings Pointer 10/1+’ selection.. but he may drift to 11.00+ on the machine and qualify that way, although a drift for one with this profile wouldn’t inspire confidence, you want this type to be backed really… I put him up on the free post at a big price, 22s+ maybe, when he was withdrawn, and the same reasons apply. Clearly he ticks our stats/ratings here but he makes handicap hurdle debut which is of interest. Bailey is 6/23,9p with such types in the last year, 8/41,13p +26 SP in the last 2 years. That P/L figure suggests most are well backed and sent off at single figure prices. He is 1/3,2p at Huntingdon. Maybe an interesting EW bet but I am a win only punter generally. But, each to their own. He also steps up in distance which is what I want to see with handicap hurdle debutants as that is a reason for improvement- allied to the fact that they may have been trained a bit harder now, and of course have gained experience along the way. Heavy is an unknown as is his ability- he may just be useless. That is always a possibility and always why you want a price with this type. They will pay over time from this yard. This is also a shocker of a race where everything has something to prove. And he has some stamina in his pedigree and this could be a slog. Finally, Bailey is in form, 7/28,14p the last 14 days.

Fingers crossed!

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Nothing else today. I will get a results post up asap, with links to both spreadsheets – I need to update the Ratings Pointers one.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

15 Responses

  1. Sunday HUNTINGDON 4.00

    Lord Heathfield 7/1

    Note: Trainer 13%, Jockey 14%; Strong hits together.
    Beat ‘Wood Yer’; probably second here; 10th Feb going away over 29+ Furlongs on Soft.

    1. Lord Heathfield is a n/r so i’m going to take a leap of faith and have a little on Optimistic Bias as he should have no problem getting home in these conditions and is now weighted to go well, if he jumps well should have a good chance.

  2. I don’t profess to know anything about pretty much everything. Has anyone got any thoughts on New Horizons 3pm Huntingdon. Not run for nearly 2 years. So an obvious doubt there. Does trainer have any form with horses with long lay offs?

  3. Hi all,
    See yesterday’s closing post.

    33/1 WITNESS OF FASHION 4.40 LEOP

    One for you new gold users!
    Stable landed a nice gamble yesterday in the 3.55 NAV.

  4. Hi Robert
    New Horizons trainer as had 8 runners with a lay off over 365 days no wins no place the horse as run once after a 365+ lay off and not placed as won twice between 31-60 days, hope this helps.

  5. Hi Josh.

    I’m probably being lazy and i’m sure there is an easy way to do this (probably cut and paste ) but do you have any record of all RP qualifiers/all selections on Saturdays only. It strikes me that seems to be the most successful day and whilst it may not be that much “fun” would it be more profitable? Thanks Ben

    1. Hi Ben,

      No i don’t, but it is on my list to pull out such data as the anecdotal feel is that Saturday’s have been very good to us, as have Sunday’s also. I haven’t kept separate records but when I update results later today I can pull them out and tot them up etc. Should make for interesting reading.
      Josh

    1. haha, I know exactly what you mean there!! I had to stick to my guns, he must be a good’un to win with the extra 1 stone burden of my ‘tipping coin’- stars aligned for him there I think. Looks very hard work. He is one to note for career, esp any 26f+ muddy handicap chase in time- looks a big big horse, plenty of filling out into frame, but can see him slogging to victory a few times in career. Strong wind also. Clearly laden with stamina.

    1. Cheers. Just need to focus on the biggies first and foremost, that should be two really but bottled the Sandly Thompson one despite all the positives. Still, I wont complain. More pleased that the ‘Ratings Pointers/10/1+ strategy’ has hit some form again- never really out of form in Feb but wiped their face but I think they are around +76 points up now, BFSP, 130% ROI?, for an average of 1 bet a day, that is becoming ‘THE’ starting point strategy I think.

  6. Well done Josh bet of the day had to come good before to long done all seven rating horse,s today in profit with five to run thanks

    1. note to self, stop sodding about with your banks keep them for want they were meant for. used main bank which is reserved for qualifiers from this page for a couple from free page and a couple of mine as prices were much better but it distorts the figures.
      still 8 pts up today 218 pts since starting, creeping back up to high point, cheers Josh great tip.

  7. Looking more closely at the bigger priced qualifiers is definitely the way forward,focussing on the ones the bookies and the general public haven’t nailed down,there is probably a few points differental between their true chance and price offered on those outside the front 3 or 4 in betting

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