Well my trip to Anfield was good fun! For those of you who care about such things. And well if you are a Gunners supporter I do feel sorry for you somewhat. That is one of the worst first half displays I have ever seen from a visiting ‘top 4 contender’. But, this isn’t a football blog so we will leave that there! One day Klopp/the players will mentally/tactically figure out how to approach games against those not in the Top 6. Moving on…
Thank the Lord I have an affection for trainer stats I could stop Douvan in my current form, with my ‘tipping’ / ‘i like this horse’ approach. On the Members post I started dabbling with ‘my bet of the day’ – using the stats as a starting point and the other tools at my disposal to pick out which one looked most interesting. They are now 0/5,0p, all five still running. And two others I thought would run well on Saturday are still running..but but but… just trust the stats long term…
They had a painful February on the whole, certainly compared to Jan which was a bit crazy really, but the approach that is looking most solid is the ‘ratings pointers 10/1+’ strategy. Basically those stats pack qualifiers that are top 3 on HRB and/or Geegeez Speed ratings and that were generally 10/1 in the morning and/or are sent of 11.00 BFSP. So far in 2017 those are now, after Just A Par won at 18.o0, 8/56, +64 points, BFSP. Solid. They are a good foundation, and one in which to then decide how to dabble on any of the other qualifiers.
Overall all qualifiers were 3/12 today, winners at 6/1>5/2, 10/1>8/1 and 14/1 with bookies, a nice +21 points. They generally do well at weekends, bar the odd blowout and have had a solid start to March.
No Tips on Sunday, cards being decimated by non-runners as I write. There is the Cambridgeshire National which looks an ok little staying chase. I will keep my powder dry but the one I like, and therefore worth laying the life out of!, is Oliver Sherwoods mare, Blameitalonmyroot – in form and versatile I think she ‘might’ relish this trip and is certainly worth a go at it. I can see her just galloping and galloping around here. And She will be up there from the off I suspect. Were she 9/2+ I probably would have had a go but with the non runners etc only 3s and in any case as I write this I haven’t gone through the race in any detail. Of course I tipped her two starts ago when she PU and the she won on her next start 12s>8s. Typical really.
Harry Fry Mares (10/1< guide, 12/1+ now 1/13, 0)
3.30 Hunt – Desert Queen
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
3.20 Sedge- Swing Hard (12/1<)
4.20 Sedge – Wolf Sword (12/1<)
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio – Live Test
3.20 Sedge – Sun Cloud
Well, I say a bonus… below is my ‘bet of the day’ test selection from the Members Post. This one looks the most interesting on the day on that side of things…
My Bet of The Day… Test (emphasis on that word) (0/5,0p)…
Well BRAW ANGUS 8/1 is going to get the extra burden of my bet of the day expectation. But for Gary Moore’s coming out and the 25p R4 he would have been a ‘Ratings Pointer 10/1+’ selection.. but he may drift to 11.00+ on the machine and qualify that way, although a drift for one with this profile wouldn’t inspire confidence, you want this type to be backed really… I put him up on the free post at a big price, 22s+ maybe, when he was withdrawn, and the same reasons apply. Clearly he ticks our stats/ratings here but he makes handicap hurdle debut which is of interest. Bailey is 6/23,9p with such types in the last year, 8/41,13p +26 SP in the last 2 years. That P/L figure suggests most are well backed and sent off at single figure prices. He is 1/3,2p at Huntingdon. Maybe an interesting EW bet but I am a win only punter generally. But, each to their own. He also steps up in distance which is what I want to see with handicap hurdle debutants as that is a reason for improvement- allied to the fact that they may have been trained a bit harder now, and of course have gained experience along the way. Heavy is an unknown as is his ability- he may just be useless. That is always a possibility and always why you want a price with this type. They will pay over time from this yard. This is also a shocker of a race where everything has something to prove. And he has some stamina in his pedigree and this could be a slog. Finally, Bailey is in form, 7/28,14p the last 14 days.
That will be all for Sunday