More Buck’s – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) PU*
*ah well that was inevitable. Only I could be confident on probably the only Nicholls chaser not to win today!! Maybe the ground has found him out if heavy, an unknown, but got a price so I won’t complain.
It all looks a bit too good for this one’s chance- so good that I am expecting disaster but at 12/1 I will roll the dice and may well decimate my Festival funds even further!
A rare divergence from the 3m+ chases but having looked at the stats/trends I couldn’t resist… (it will probably serve me right…)
So, why him…
Well in the Members Post I pulled out a few stats of interest… mainly horses aged 6-8 have dominated this, 1/84 or so those aged 9+. And also Paul Nicholls has dominated this, with 8 winners from 24 runners to date. Madness. It is clearly a race he targets. Those that have had 0-1 run this season are 0/14,0p to date. Small numbers I know, but a negative for Venetia’s charge- and, famous last words, but many of hers fail to fire on the second start after a long break. Odd that one of her usual jocks isn’t on him either.
Anyway, those two stats would only leave 4. The selection and numbers 1 (Nicholls’ other horse. I would hope jockey bookings are an indication and he also has a stamina question, and only ran ok the last day- backing both given his record is probably the wise approach, but my wisdom is nowhere to be found these days!) 3 (Skelton’s, 3/1 short for any chaser who is usually held up out the back, in my opinion,but could hack up) and 4.
So on the trends and on the trainer’s record he is solid. 12s seems too good to be true. It probably is.
The horse is young and unexposed enough over fences still. There should be more to come at some point and a lot of his early chase form has worked out well. He fell the last day and was never really going but neither was the yard from memory- but I may have that wrong. They are going well now. This trip on soft ground should hold no fears, esp based on that Fontwell run.
The final piece in the jigsaw was that he is top rated Geegeez Speed , combined with the fact that on the pace maps it looks like he could dominate here from the front. If young Bowen, who likes to be aggressive if he can, gets his own way up front, and jumps well, then 12s should look plenty big enough.
So, that’s why I like him. My gut says 12s is big. It also says it may be that for a reason! But, based on the stats/trends/trainer/horse profile/pace set up, he is the only one I would want to be with here at the prices I think. This isn’t the deepest of chases with a few who are long in the tooth now.
GL if you follow me in, or whatever else you fancy.
That may be it for tipping, it certainly will be for this evening.
I will look at the 2.05 and 3.35 but on first run through I wasn’t jumping up and down to back anything.
Maybe Pipe has laid Shotavodka out for the 2.05 again, that wouldn’t be a shock. I liked Kim Bailey’s but I don’t think I like 9/2. On the fence. I will be back.
That will be all for today. Nothing in the Grimthorpe really stands out at the prices, looks a tight little contest. Looking Well could be the one if building on that last run but 11/2 can’t quite tempt me in. The Veteran’s chase also looks interesting- i think Harry Topper is the one to beat- given his record here i get the feeling this may well have been a target- but I have long since missed the 9/2, him being 7/2 generally. I couldn’t tempt myself in at that price last night so won’t wade in a point or so shorter.
I will just stick with More Buck’s on the tipping front.
none. A rare day off I think.
SATURDAY VIDEO PREVIEW…
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