TIPS
3.15 Newbury
More Buck’s – 1 point win – 12/1 (general) PU*
*ah well that was inevitable. Only I could be confident on probably the only Nicholls chaser not to win today!! Maybe the ground has found him out if heavy, an unknown, but got a price so I won’t complain.
It all looks a bit too good for this one’s chance- so good that I am expecting disaster but at 12/1 I will roll the dice and may well decimate my Festival funds even further!
A rare divergence from the 3m+ chases but having looked at the stats/trends I couldn’t resist… (it will probably serve me right…)
So, why him…
Well in the Members Post I pulled out a few stats of interest… mainly horses aged 6-8 have dominated this, 1/84 or so those aged 9+. And also Paul Nicholls has dominated this, with 8 winners from 24 runners to date. Madness. It is clearly a race he targets. Those that have had 0-1 run this season are 0/14,0p to date. Small numbers I know, but a negative for Venetia’s charge- and, famous last words, but many of hers fail to fire on the second start after a long break. Odd that one of her usual jocks isn’t on him either.
Anyway, those two stats would only leave 4. The selection and numbers 1 (Nicholls’ other horse. I would hope jockey bookings are an indication and he also has a stamina question, and only ran ok the last day- backing both given his record is probably the wise approach, but my wisdom is nowhere to be found these days!) 3 (Skelton’s, 3/1 short for any chaser who is usually held up out the back, in my opinion,but could hack up) and 4.
So on the trends and on the trainer’s record he is solid. 12s seems too good to be true. It probably is.
The horse is young and unexposed enough over fences still. There should be more to come at some point and a lot of his early chase form has worked out well. He fell the last day and was never really going but neither was the yard from memory- but I may have that wrong. They are going well now. This trip on soft ground should hold no fears, esp based on that Fontwell run.
The final piece in the jigsaw was that he is top rated Geegeez Speed , combined with the fact that on the pace maps it looks like he could dominate here from the front. If young Bowen, who likes to be aggressive if he can, gets his own way up front, and jumps well, then 12s should look plenty big enough.
So, that’s why I like him. My gut says 12s is big. It also says it may be that for a reason! But, based on the stats/trends/trainer/horse profile/pace set up, he is the only one I would want to be with here at the prices I think. This isn’t the deepest of chases with a few who are long in the tooth now.
GL if you follow me in, or whatever else you fancy.
That may be it for tipping, it certainly will be for this evening.
I will look at the 2.05 and 3.35 but on first run through I wasn’t jumping up and down to back anything.
Maybe Pipe has laid Shotavodka out for the 2.05 again, that wouldn’t be a shock. I liked Kim Bailey’s but I don’t think I like 9/2. On the fence. I will be back.
That will be all for today. Nothing in the Grimthorpe really stands out at the prices, looks a tight little contest. Looking Well could be the one if building on that last run but 11/2 can’t quite tempt me in. The Veteran’s chase also looks interesting- i think Harry Topper is the one to beat- given his record here i get the feeling this may well have been a target- but I have long since missed the 9/2, him being 7/2 generally. I couldn’t tempt myself in at that price last night so won’t wade in a point or so shorter.
I will just stick with More Buck’s on the tipping front.
MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES
none. A rare day off I think.
***
SATURDAY VIDEO PREVIEW…
What follows is a video preview of sorts of Saturday’s racing… and yes, you guessed it, using Geegeez Gold. This will be the final time I mention Matt’s special offer but I thought it would be useful to see three strategies that you could use straight away. I am conscious that most of you who read this will have decided not to bother, which is fair enough. In any case there may be a few winners lurking in this run through so get your notepads at the ready. (there may not be of course, but there is method to my madness) For some of you, trialling Geegeez Gold may well be life changing, well in the sense of changing your approach to your punting on the horses anyway) Saturday’s preview, with my 3 strategies/starting points, follows…
(the sound is a bit out of sync so just watch the screen and listen to my dulcet tones! 🙂 )
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**
46 Responses
Well, I couldn’t tip a wheelbarrow at the moment. I look forward to some top advice in the morning.
Probably best come back and read others comments for that advice!! 🙂 I think I am buried under your wheelbarrow.
Hi, I have had a quiet week. Some winners but not great prices. Lull before Cheltenham.
Early bets for tomorrow – I am on More Bucks as well in the 3.15 Nb each way at 12/1. I also like Looking Well, 3.35 Don, looks well in to me but with 7 runners, win only. A horse back to a winning mark in a not good race is Kazanan, 8.15 NC.
Hopefully more tomorrow. Good luck.
Sorry two duffers and a16/1 second so not much to be proud of!
I went for Thomas Crapper at 315 I can’t see him having a problem taking on soft, especially on his current mark. 205 I go for Katenko. Surely he must have a race like this in him. Price and current mark are very tempting for me.
Good luck to all of you.
Well done Marcin, old Thomas has bolted up, deserved one like that I suppose!
Good shout Marcin…. I was on O’Manlai and More Bucks, but was on Just A Par in the 2.05, so I guess it evened out.
Well done lad.
Tony Mc.
Thanks chaps. I enjoyed the race. Why I backed Katenko again??? I do not know!!!
The full of the other side of variance has been in full flow and I haven’t had a winner in almost 2 weeks so you probably want to run a mile from these. Got three tomorrow.
The handicapper has taken a big chance dropping O’Faolains Boy down to a mark of 143 in the 14:05 at Newbury. Last year he pulled up on his re-appearance before absolutely destroying Sausalito Sunrise off level weights at Newbury over 2m7.5f. That also occurred when the Curtis runners were running terribly. He than got destroyed in the Betbright Chase and the Gold Cup which you would expect him to given he is not a top level horse. In between he ran a hurdle race off 150 which again isn’t his forte. Curtis reported in the summer that he was in good order and the plan was to go for the Hennessey and than the Grand National. Obviously things haven’t worked out but he is still in the Grand National so Curtis still must think he hasn’t gone off the boil completely. If that’s true than he should be winning tomorrow. He’s PU in his 1st run this season like last year but he won his 2nd start and also likes it here. Curtis is 3/9, 6p in chases at Newbury over the past 12 months. Adam Wedge has been riding well finishing in the first 4 in 12 of his last 17 starts and is 2/01, 3p when riding in handicap chases for Curtis.
I also want an e/w bet on Royal Guardsman in the race beforehand. He loves it at Newbury and has won of his 4 hurdle starts here. He is back down to his last winning mark. All the other conditions seem ideal too. Trainer’s last 4 runners have gone 11F2 including 2 at massive prices so she has her string in very good order. Has already been nibbled at in the market. Should be there or thereabouts.
Lastly I want to be on Roy’s Legacy in the 14:00 at Lingfield. He rarely runs a bad race over course and distance (6/20, 11p). He has gone close there the last 2 times (the 1st time winner almost followed up off 5lbs higher and the 2nd time the 2nd has won since). I expect him to go close.
O Maonlai 3:15 N and or More Buck´s will look how trading is going
and what going will be
desperados bet is Melodic Rendezvous 2:40 N
I have problem with Loose Chips he is schedulad for Chelt two weeks from now
4.20 Lingfield Sutter County
the only 10-1+ i can find worth considering that hasn’t already been covered is in the Kelso 3-25 the probable fav capitaine looks worth taking on, not great LTO only a week ago and it might be worth having a go with Mirsaale @10-1+ useful on the flat and had a couple of decent runs over hurdles back end of last year, poor last couple of times out but back to conditions and trip that will suit, has cheekpieces on for first time over hurdles, K Dalgleish has a 25% SR in this type of race (i think new sporting life website is rubbish now and hard to use).
carrying on from my comment on Sporting Life if i’m going to start taking this seriously again i’m thinking of taking up the offer with Geegeez Gold, i know Josh endorses it who else uses it and is it easy to navigate?
Gold…..
I’d say yes easy after the first few goes…
Dedicated reports for each days runners on…
Trainer first run from someone else
Trainer first hcap run (can run through these in about 5-10 mins depending on numbers)
Trainer/jockey combos
Sires
All with combinations of win/place rate and percentages for various race distances/types etc etc
All the days runners and form
And a ton of other stuff (I generally only use the above)
There are ‘best of the day’ type selections too…but from the little I’ve looked at them I wouldn’t say they make an overall profit.
Nothing to lose with the trial. Make sure you sign up through Josh’s link.
The problem……
With another 5000 punters (I’m plucking the figure out of the air, could be more, might be less) all getting the same info…after time there’s a chance that will have an impact (adverse, from our perspective) on odds and returns (unless you’re backing against the flow of course).
And it’s £30 a month. Lots of info and worth it…but when you hit the bad runs it’s going to be questionable.
PS Should have said, I’ve been using it since December. In that time made more from my own selection methods that anything got from using Gold…though my use is limited to those items listed above.
There’s a lot to play with but as usual the killer is time to think it all through.
Hi Martin, I have been on Gold since its inception. Stat of The Day alone has covered the subs many times over and the rest of the site, once one gets used to navigating around it is exceptional. It should be noted that it is not really a tipping site, just a fantastic form study resource with a couple of tipping systems and some excellent editorial. Most importantly no bookie advertising.
Can’t recommend it highly enough.
Hugh
Probably a day for keeping the shillings in the pocket,if No Duffer 2.05 came back near his best,would have a chance but ran too bad to be believed,whether it was ground,or jockey or just an off day,but remember Paddy saying he has to force the pace,which didnt happen lto,if he could get lead,was back to best and jumped well could get them at it but thats 3 ifs
I watched the video and this geegeez is surely worth a try. I tried to register with geegeez this morning and boom fatal error 3 times in a row.
Don’t know whether it’s a problem on my side or their? Anybody had the same problem?
Their support responses are fast, within 20 mins only time I used it.
The problem at the moment will be that every (major) tipster (Josh you’re included 🙂 + Geegeez themsleves) are spreading the word…meaning there’s a lot of traffic hitting their site.
My bet is they didn’t think that through and didn’t prepare for the traffic volumes and server can’t handle it…though it might be genuinely they thought it would and the hosting people screwed it up. Might also be a bit of a ‘game’ too and I did get a reprehensible mail from Geegeez on the morning of the release ‘apologising’ for that…for anyone who knows about how some sites ‘create’ desire you’ll know what I mean. I’m probably being over cynical.
Think about how many times Josh has mentioned it now…and now think about how many other tipsters will be pushing it out to their subscribers and email lists.
Nothing wrong with any of that…but might give an idea of traffic volumes (and potential new subscribers)
…and apologies for using the word ‘tipsters’ with ref to Josh. Should have said ‘info enablers/providers’ or something like that because Josh you are much more than ‘just’ a tipster. Sorry, was referring to the general establishment.
Hi Steve… thanks for your comments… good grief, it’s a good job I am not just a ‘tipster’, I think i would be the only one left reading my blog on recent (a few months!) evidence! You hit the nail on the head as to my own purpose/approach, and with the paid stuff I have tried to pitch it all at a reasonable level to make it accessible to all.
In terms of Geegeez…
Yep it is up there on the subs fees level but in terms of the content I think it is probably pitched about right now. But, that’s why a trial is important. It is a game changer I believe but again won’t be for everyone.
To clarify… the website outage/follow up email, wasn’t a marketing ploy – I know Matt personally and believe that was a rather embarrassing episode – he doesn’t need me to stick up for him, but that wasn’t some dodgy attempt to convert more- i think the site was down for an hour or so after launch.
Anyway, readers can make their own mind up whether it’s for them or not. It will be all guns on Cheltenham from tomorrow.
GL with any bets today.
Actually what you’ve done here is enable a community type feel where it feels like a team sharing info, Josh. With everyone wanting everyone else to get their share of winners. That is some achievement and all credit is due.
And yes, I believe you have a perfect balance on what you send out, and how you structure all the different aspects.
If you know Matt I take it back then, just seen it too many times and as I said, overly cynical on this occasion.
As a lifelong punter, I definitely wouldn’t put anyone off at least trialling Gold. It’s a no brainer yes.
Hi Steve, I have an absolute antipathy for tipsters and all the shysters around so must leap to the defence of Geegeez Gold. As I said in my reply to Martin it is not really a tipping site, more a form study resource. This year I cancelled my sub to the RP as I can now use GGz for all that stuff.
Hugh
Two more for today.
I hear a good word for Justification, 1.30 Nb, from the Gary Moore stable.
Swift Emperor, 7.15 NC, expected to win by the stable.
Good luck
Cheers Martin…It won with a lot in hand I think.
Thanks a lot for that.
Tony Mc.
Apologies about the Moore horse, it’s run was unacceptable based upon what I was told. At least the other one went in and you could have had 7/2.
Yes Good call martin, never in doubt
Geegeez, Proform, horseracebase, racing post, Raceform, beforetheoff etc etc are in the data business. They do the leg work or allow you to do your own much quicker. I have trialled or subscribed to most of them over the years. All in my opinion are like the curate’s egg (good in parts). Geegeez and beforetheoff give similar amounts of information, the latter for a cheaper subscription. Neither I believe has a searchable database for trends and systems so if that’s your thing you need to get another product as well. Proform is good for both but at a price. Beforetheoff use Proform data and it is cheaper. I think Raceform and the Proform databases need updated for web Access as you still have to download files each day. My favourite feature of all is from Proform where you can get a single graph of speed ratings for all the horses in the race and filter for going and distance and many other factors. Other systems have graphical data for only a single horse.
Timeform is full of information too but like with all products as Josh mentioned you can suffer from information overload.
My first port of call is usually the free PDFs on the RP website where you can see the hidden information not accessible to non members clicking on their website. Still requires leg work. I then check to see what Josh and others are backing here.
One final thing is that many sites give a free race of the day. It’s the 3.15 at Newbury for most today so you can get lots of opinions. Also Timeform have a free Kelso card today.
Happy punting if you are having a bet.
Good info John. have you come across anywhere where I can get sales values without a paying subscription? Use RP currently and always have but not over-enamoured with new format and fully expecting them to drop the old version as soon as they think they can get away with it.
Hi Steve. I agree with you about the RP site. There are no links to PDFs on the beta version but the old version still has them but for how long? Re sales figures I don’t know anywhere yet – I just tried the BHA site and Sporting Life but nothing. John
Epilogue 3.15 Newbury. RP PDFs had Thomas Crapper Top rated on distance and going. Proform had him top on things such as sire on course, trainer 14 and 56 day stats, jockey course, trainer course but he was bottom on speed (last time out) and the master proform rating. Timeform had him joint 3rd rated and said he acted on heavy. Well done Marcin for giving me the confidence to have a go on him today.
spoke to Racing Post and they said the old site will be there for a few more weeks, definitely be there for cheltenham.
I am losing parience with Racing Post / Sporting Life. I do have Geegeez Gold and have used for a while, its not bad but at £30 a month a bit pricey. I have found an excellent free site which has racecards, a tip for every race and also all kinds of (Geegeez Gold type) data and systems like ratings, class droppers, first time handicaps, longest travellers, in form trainers, jockeys etc. It is being enhanced almost on a daily basis and the free tips have a very good strike rate.
Strange name BetTurtle (www.betturtle.com) is free to register and you get an email with lots of free info every morning around 9-10am – excellent if quirky graphics and absolutely no advertising or affinity deals. I have had a lot of fun with it.
Thanks for this Colin and Dave – I have just registered.
No pedigrees, or am I not looking in the right place?
Steve – don’t know if this is what you are looking for but pedigree and sales data is available on the RP pdfs under FORM for individual races. John
Josh you “always” manage to put a smile on my face even when we’re not winning. Thanks for the way you blog its always a good read. Good luck one and all at Cheltenham = always a difficult meeting for good price winners.
Richard
Thanks Richard, the day I can’t do things with a smile will be the day I stop! You have to try and keep things light and good humoured. It is meant to be an entertainment game after all- not that tipping bucket loads of losers is much fun, but still, not for the want of trying. Cheltenham will be fun.
Last year my stats shortlists/trainer micro angles, found 7 winners from the 12/13 or so races i looked at. Of course I only ‘tipped’ 2 but I would take that haul again and with any luck the pin lands on a couple more.
The way I blog won’t change, no need to worry on that front. Glad you enjoy the read, that’s the main thing. Josh
I took the geegeez trial, Josh. Today there was one selection for the trainers/ jockey longshot method. It ran second at 75.0 BF.
Good stuff Ben, which horse/combo was that? It will find the odd monster that runs well/drops in for sure. In any case you should know within 2 months if you can make the tools etc work for you. GL
Hi all,
Hope the new geegeez gold users managed to find that winner at Navan in the 3.55
I cannot access the site and been able to
regards Frederick
Hi Frederick, I will email you. Josh
If you really want to see a brilliant form service try Betturtle. Improving all the time and I have seen nothing to touch it. Free at the present time but I believe they will be charging eventually. (I have no connection with it but have used it for form analysis for months……..and site is incredible!!!) By the way no ads and they don’t organise thousands of emails to drum up business!!
DJ
Hi all,
Let’s hit another 33/1 winner in the shape of WITNESS OF FASHION 4.40 LEOP.
One for all you new gold subscribers!
try to register ,no email as been sent to me
Colin – you will get an email around 10am this morning as DJ says another good thing is they don’t bombard you with stuff.