TTP Jumps Notes: 01/03/2017 (complete)

All quals + RPs+ notes+ bet of the day…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

3.00 Muss- Improved UP

2.40 Winc- Another Frontier UP

4.20 Ffos Las – Batavir – UP

4.50 Ffos Las – Well Smitten- UP

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.40 Winc – Another Frontier UP

Top 3

2.00 Muss- Vincent Row UP

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

MUSSELBURGH

2.00 – Vincent Row (hncp chase) 6/1 UP 4/1

3.00-

Improved (all hncps) 15/2 UP

Buckled (hncp hurdle) 12/1 WON 12/1,  15.12 BFSP

 

WINCANTON

2.40 –

Another Frontier (all hncps) 7/2 UP

Instagram (micro going) 12/1 UP 12/1>40/1

 

FFOS LAS

4.20 – Batavir (hncp chase) 3/1 UP

4.50 –

Newquay (NHF) 12/1 UP

Well Smitten (NHF) 3/1 UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

A quick look at the three 10/1+ horses to start with… (on morning prices as above,maybe the odd one will drift to 11.00+ on the machine)

Buckled- well the positives are that he is unexposed in handicap hurdles really, only 1/6,2p before this, and he is certainly unexposed at this distance. It is an unknown really over timber. He may not stay, but equally it could be a reason for an improved performance. The yard can ready them after a break also, this one has had 59 days rest since his two poor chase runs- the yard is 2/5,5p with handicap hurdlers here returning 60+ days off. I think decent ground is important to him,and as long as this is not ‘dead’ good ground, which it may well be given the time of year, he could run an ok race. I wouldn’t be shocked if he out-ran his odds. Equally, given the negatives are his 4 previous runs/stamina unknown, you wouldn’t be shocked were he not to run well. One of those. There is enough there though at the price for me personally to roll the dice to some degree. Market support is always welcome, and esp more so with one coming back after a break/poor recent runs. He clearly didn’t take to chasing although the PUs before that would be a concern. Maybe the break has done him some good. It could be he is just a ‘summer horse’ also, maybe one to track for a trip back to Perth at some point…

Newquay Cards… well he is lightly raced and unexposed. Williams has a decent enough record with 2nd time career starters, 10/60,18p and it is possible this one comes on a bundle for that last run. He wasn’t exactly fancied there and you would think most Ffos Las bumpers are not as strong as Newbury bumpers. He could go well. He could be a longer term project. The market can guide but Williams does have the odd decent priced bumper winner also. But, any drift from 12s may have you thinking today isn’t the day. We shall see.

Instagram… goes for the Pipes at Wincanton-on the positive side he is unexposed over here and still in the ‘could be anything’ category. Those types are always hard to totally dismiss. He does have stamina to prove, wears a first time tongue tie and also has the hood- the latter suggesting he must be a keen sort/hard to settle- which would be a concern if ‘fresh’ here after a monster lay off. The break is a slight concern, if not least because in handicap hurdles with horse returning after more than 365 days Pipe is ‘only’ 6/98,13p, -50 SP. Clearly he can ready them but they are hard to find. So, some negatives, in the context of an unexposed profile. The type where you wouldn’t be shocked were they to dot up, but equally again, a poor effort wouldn’t surprise. Maybe the market can help with  this one, again any drift from 12s may give us some clue.

 

My Bet of The Day… (or lay!)… (0/1,0p = -1) Yesterday’s main pick doubled in price and ran as such- a strange run having been travelling well up there for the first circuit before falling back through the pack as they headed out again. I should have been more confident on the Smith horse who at 5/2 won like a 1/2 shot and clearly that turned out to be a good price. Anyway…

Nothing leaps out at me today but the best of them could be VINCENT ROW.. (UP- that race was over after about 2 fences when the leader got an unexpected uncontested lead- well unexpected for me- VR nibbled at but could never really lay up- will be of some interested in a moderate race,3m+ on heavy maybe) and I will chance him as looking the best from today’s bunch. He is 0/30 odd in his career and is a 10 year old, so some recipe for disaster…but this is only his 3rd start for Chris Grant and arguably two of his better runs ever have been his last two. He has ran well enough both times, the first of those whereby he may have needed the run, but ran well to a point. LTO he bumped into one and in any case it looks like he want further. Still a decent enough effort. The yard may also be starting to show more signs of life recently, 0/6,3p in the last 14 days, 0/10,0p the 16 or so days before that. This is also a poor enough quality race with everything having some sort of question- and there is also a bit of pace on paper- 3 or 4 who do like to get on with it. If he can just track them – i don’t like hold up chasers generally,esp not around here – he could pick up the pieces. Ground is more of an unknown as he has always been kept to a bog really. Maybe this is what he has always wanted!

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

There are 6 Trainers to keep an eye on in March HERE>>>

As always, use such info however you please.

RESULTS: I will get updated spreadsheets up ASAP and a review of Feb/2017 to date also. With any luck these will be posted on Wednesday at some point, or in Thursday’s post.

 

5. Hunter Chase Live Test 

Jockeys (33/1<)

3.40 Winc – Tony Star

4.30 Muss – Another Dark Rum

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Long distance travelling qualifiers today.

    Muss 3:00 – Wake your Dreams 17/2 (8/1 max)

    Newc 7:00 – Harlow 11/4 (12/1 max)

    2 winners from 6 runners so far, but unfortunately both odds on.

    LSP -3.03pts (to SP)

    Chris R.

      1. When applying the following filters to Wake Your Dreams it seems a must do bet!
        Going right handed on good ground with S. Quinlan riding you get 5 runs 3 Wins 4 placed!

  2. Hi Josh, I got 12s….and as you say, it always pulls back the losses lol.
    Very good stats these Josh. Well done mate.

    tony Mc.

    1. Yep when a 10/1+ goes in it does erode a few 10/1+ losses quite quickly, hopefully March may be more like Jan on that front, less like Feb!! Just about to update all the results for the month from last few days, will get them up in tomorrow’s post asap.
      He did look the most interesting, why I went for an exposed 10yo,0/30 in career 5/1 or so for my new bet of the day trial who knows! (12s+ maybe, but 6s! with a ground question) Well, not being a very good ‘tipster’ prob top of the list for those reasons! Winner ticked the boxes you want ticking for 10/1+ I think – you either want nailed on to today’s conditions/handicap mark down/in form types I think, or the flip- the lightly raced, unexposed, could improve for a distance move etc- this one the latter, yet had shown ability also. As a general rule anyway. The 60 day rest pattern stats were the pos that should have given me more confidence, still, I won’t complain, he was backed!

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