Trainers To Follow In March?
Well last month, for the first time, I provided some stats for interest to keep an eye on during the month of Feb. There were quite a few of them, including plenty of non-handicaps, and no odds caps either.
Having been through the results, before any runners on the last day of the month, it is clear that it may be worthwhile trying a different approach.
On my maths those collection of angles were 19/105,48 places.
On the face of it those stats are ok, especially the place stats. But, most of the winners went off at rather short prices meaning the loss on those bets, to BFSP, was around -40 points I think- if you backed them all. I should think taking earlier odds may have improved on that, but probably not by much. I suggested using them as starting points, and they did find winners. But as a monthly ‘portfolio’ clearly didn’t work.
So, I have changed approach slightly.
I have just focused on handicaps this month, and I have imposed an odds cap of 10/1 or shorter SP. That is a guide and you may wish to keep an eye on some of those that are sent off at bigger prices, the odd one may go in.
I focus plenty on the 10/1+ shots myself in the TTP posts, so, I will head to the other end of the market for this approach, and see how they get on..
Why 10/1… well I did read somewhere the other day that 90% of winners are sent off 10/1 or shorter, which had been lodged in my mind for a time anyway. With that in mind I did a bit of digging.
So, for all National Hunt Handicaps, 10/1< (2014-)
47 392 bets / 7562 wins / 16% SR / AE 0.81
35 493 bets / 1255 wins / 3.54% sr / AE 0.68
That works out around 86% of winners are sent off 10/1 or shorter, 14% 11/1+.
In that context what has been a 10-15% or so SR of 10/1+ shots in the TTP posts (all quals vs Ratings Pointers) is decent but for these monthly stats we will head to the ‘shorter’ end of the market.
The following stats also exclude any runners at the Cheltenham Festival.
So, we have…
- March (exc ‘The Festival’)
- Handicaps (exc novice handicaps/selling handicaps etc)
- 10/1< SP
I suspect many of these get well backed, or have been in the past.
The below list is also more focused, on 6 ‘combinations’ which should make any hunt for potential qualifiers a bit more bearable. And given the numbers hopefully the risk is reduced also.
We shall see how this approach goes. As always caution is advised and I would use them as a starting point, if you bother using them at all.
I have ensured that the combos have at least a 30% win SR. And I have looked at the performance across all three years and ensured that the winning stats are not skewed by 1 or 2 horses.
To the stats…
N Henderson/Handicap Hurdle: 26 bets / 11 wins / 15 places / 42% sr / +27 SP / +30 BFSP /AE 1.72
D Pipe/Handicap Chase: 17 bets / 7 wins / 10 places / 41% sr / +32 SP / +32 BFSP / AE 2.24
K Dalgleish/Handicap Hurdle: 11 bets / 6 wins / 6 places / 55% sr / +27 SP / +31 BFSP / AE 2.27
R Fahey/Wolverhampton: 25 bets / 8 wins / 13 places / 32% sr / +13 SP / +20 BFSP / AE 1.61
Peter Bowen/Sean Bowen: 15 bets / 5 wins / 10 places / 33% sr / +16 SP / +22 BFSP / AE 1.51
Nigel Hawke/Tom Scudamore: 10 bets / 6 wins / 7 places / 60% sr / +15 SP / +