TTP Jumps Notes: 17/02/17 (complete)

all qualifiers + ratings pointers + hunter chases + notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

**

1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.10 Sand- Pougne Bobbi UP 6/4>11/10

 

Geegeez Gold

Top Rated

2.10 Sand- Pougne Bobbi UP 6/4>11/10

Top 3

3.00 Fake- Safron Wells

2.10 Sand- Mr Muddle 2nd 25/1

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

FAKENHAM

3.00 – Safron Wells (hncp c) 13/2

4.35-

Wellingtonbridge (NHF) 6/1

Potters Sapphire (NHF) 10/1

 

SANDOWN

2.10 –

Icing On The Cake (all hncps) 14,30 10/1 UP 10/1 

Fairy Raith (hncp c) 16/1 UP 18/1

Mr Muddle (micro class) 33/1 2nd 25/1

Pougne Bobbi (micro going) 14,30 6/4 UP 11/10

 

4.15

Fight Commander (all hncps) 18/1

Knight of Noir (all hncps) 14,30 6/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

A few possibles today in our quest to end what has been a painful run since the end of Jan,in the 10/1+ range anyway.

The best chance today may well be Potters Sapphire in the bumper at Fakenham. Wadham is 3/4,4p there with bumper runners and this one was sent of 5s on debut LTO, suggesting they expected more. She has had a break, gets first time CP,and Jacob booked, which caught the eye. 1/5,2p for the yard and he is riding very well at the moment. The trainer is 6/29,9p with horses making their second career start and 12/68,22p,+45 SP all runners returning 60+ days off,in the last 2 years. I have taken a price, 10s, with the thinking that if she is expected to go well she will be backed, and if she drifts then she may not be running much of a race anyway. I may have that wrong but part of me expects this one to go off a fair bit shorter than 10s. Unexposed, hopefully this one can add to Wadham’s stats here.

Over to Sandown for some other biggies. Hard to be bullish on any but stranger things have happened…

Fair Raith… well he isn’t getting any younger but he did win this race last year off 126, 132 today. He is 0/9,2p from marks 130+ in handicap chases but he went close enough in the Topham, a G3, off 131, for me to think he is no forlorn hope. He returned over hurdles which was interesting enough and maybe this has been a plan of sorts, Tom Cannon returning. He does look solid, and although open to attack from younger legs (mainly the ratings pointer horse) I wouldn’t be shocked if he out-ran these odds. I wonder if they are aiming him at the Topham again – if so they are in a tricky position- a few pounds higher and he is probably guaranteed to get in,if he drops a few before that race he may just miss out. 131 was the lowest rating last year. You would have to be more confident on him giving you a run for money than Musical Wedge! And I backed the latter, so…

Icing On The Cake… well he is unexposed, won well enough at Newbury in a small field race, before unseating LTO early on. That is the kind of profile that is dangerous to leave as he is still in the ‘could be anything’ category. As you will see when I touch on Sherwood’s other one in a second, the market can be important. The yard is in form and he is hard to put a line through really. There should be more to come over fences at some point. Given his profile, I can see him being backed I think, and I have taken 10s again.

Mr Muddle… well. The market may or may not guide. Moore is 8/308,31p with handicap chasers going off 14/1+ . Those going off 22/1+ are 3/109,9p-so, they are hard to find! BUT…on some old form for Sheena West, he would have some sort of chance, on his 3rd run of the season and his 3rd run for the yard. With the jockeys claim he is well handicapped on some of that form. He was poor the last day and I don’t know if there are excuses. The yard has been quiet enough but have shown more life in recent weeks. Headgear returns, but that hasn’t exactly worked miracles before. Based on his ‘profile’ against race conditions, he is no forlorn hope here, which makes me anxious about putting a complete line through, even though many doubts. Maybe one to play for 1/2 stakes on the machine for me. He is a ratings pointer horse also, so has that going for him at least.

Fight Commander equally looks up against it, famous last words. While unexposed enough over fences (so dangerous) he has been awful the last twice and is rock bottom of the HRB ratings. And, the market can guide for Sherwood… with his handicap chasers… those going off 14/1+ are 4/208,27p. IN the 14/1-20/1 range they are 2/135,23p, 22/1-40/1, 2/61,3p. So, again, hard to find. Any signs of market life may spark interest but he does look up against it to my eye. But, there should be more to come over fences one day, this only his 7th chase start. And the break suggests that maybe they found something/fixed something,after those two atrocious runs.  It is also a race that feels very strange with everything having a question or two to answer, and there could be an odd result.

Of the rest… well homing in on the ratings pointers horses, which have at least been showing some form this month again… Pougne Bobbi may well take all the beating again but this is no Ludlow, he drops in trip, and has an inexperienced rider on board. He may canter home, but in that context 6/4 too short for me and with any luck one of our biggies will have him.

Safron Wells… well he does look interesting and at 6s I have given him the kiss of death and had a nibble.. he is simply unexposed over fences and he did have some smart hurdle form, if able to transfer any of that ability. He ran well over fences at Kempton two starts ago, in what was a better race than this. The yards horses are just starting to show more life than they have been, a couple placing in recent days. He has ran well after similar type breaks before and it seems they may have given him time having returned after a lengthy lay off LTO, preparing for a chasing campaign with any luck.

Right, that is all for today, fingers crossed there is a winner somewhere in that lot, esp in the 10/1+ range.

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Febs Monthy Research Article… a look at some Cheltenham Festival micros etc READ HERE>>>

 

5. Hunter Chase – Live Test

Jockeys (33/1<)

4.05 Fake- Vasco Du Mee

**

That is all for today.

I think there will be some big race trends/stats/profiles to look at and if so I will put these in a separate post, completed by lunchtime with any luck.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

5 Responses

  1. Hi Josh, just a quick one, I’m interested in what stats/data both HRB and GG use to come up with their ratings. I understand that one is a generic speed rating but not sure entirely and could just do with some clarification, with the aim being to find out which aspects the ‘ratings pointers’ do not take into account and overlook, thanks in advance

    1. Hi Matt, thanks for your comment,

      GG- they use a Dr Peter May’s speed ratings, that are anything but generic I think, and do not use standard times etc- rather a complex approach that goes above my head via the use of neural networks and other things. Matt wrote a post here some time ago… https://www.geegeez.co.uk/the-best-ratings-in-the-world/

      Dr Peter May has his own website here… http://www.pjmracing.co.uk/ (more information etc)

      In terms of HRB.. they definitely do not use speed, as I had that confirmed by the owner following a previous question.

      I use the total rating which is the total for the previous 10 runs, with a decreasing scale , last run more important etc I think. From what I can see there are numerous factors involved there including some calculations/angles I don’t fully understand… a Value Ratings/Top official OR/Sphere rating/winning official ratings/prior wins|places, subsequent wins|places/place rating/distance beaten/date ratings/weight ratings and then there are jockey/trainers/stallion/today ratings within the cards, but I don’t think they make up the total rating.

      Josh

    1. Technically not missed, as it only deals with handicaps.. in the same period as the system rules, in NH non handicaps, she was 6/64, -32 points… so the odd one wins, you just have to pick them, and as yet no systematic way in with the non handicappers. I did check when I saw that result as you always get that sinking feeling! One of those. Not an official qualifier against my system rules. Josh

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