tbc. An ok chase at Sandown. I can’t be backing Cogry at a single figure price ever again, given it is Cogry, and the Sandown fences take some jumping. I have only had a flick through as I write and there wasn’t anything initially jumping out but will have another look. I wouldn’t want to be touching that fav at 2s, given the massive step up in trip and this will take some getting. It may be one to leave. We shall see…
UPDATE: None. I will leave this alone for tipping purposes, having had a slightly more in depth look. Nothing at the prices jumps out. Something is going to win but you get the impression it may be by default- in the context of their prices every horse in here has some major question to answer. Venetia’s horse probably looks most interesting but has to prove both hit fitness after 400+ days, and also that he stays. Two major questions and at 9s, happy to leave I think. Venetia’s handicap chase stats here are only ok also. The fav probably wins, if he stays, which he may well do, but his price is short. I just can’t back cogry over fences again I don’t think, and certainly not under 10s. He may appreciate the slightly smaller field but he has a tendency to just close his eyes I think,at the odd fence. There are a few lightly raced ones, a few who need to leave behind poor recent form, and a few who return after longer breaks than ideal, suggesting issues etc. One to just watch with the notepad I think.
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test
4.15 Sand – King of Glory 2nd 12/1
Form! Form! Form!
I am writing this before the first ever ‘test’ pick dots up at 10/1! (given the market my gut says that isn’t happening, but Spirit of Zebedee gave the Newcastle formline a further boost winning at 10/3 on Thursday at Lingfield- clearly I should have gone for him also)*
*update: tailed off it is, the perfect start for the test! Sadly she ran no sort of race, never in it, either not liking the surface or kickback, or just had an off day. Maybe 7f back at Newcastle may be the next port of call.
Misu Pete – 1 point win (TEST) 9/1 – 14/1 (lots of 11s,12s) UP 12/1>11/2*
*not much of a run in truth but pales into significance given the carnage. I believe one jockey has been taken to hospital and two others were involved but ok. Fingers crossed they are all fine.
On his last start at Wolvs he ran ok, losing his position before running on again, over 6f to finish a well enough beaten 4th. But, the second and third have since come out and won since at their level, the winner, Castlerea Tess, yet to come out again. We are talking about an awful ‘let’s take it in turns’ level here but at least there is some substance to that form.
Well he is doing a few things differently which I like to see. The first thing is the step back up to 7f which seems to be what he wants. Indeed he is 2/7,3p over CD, with two wins in March 2016 off marks of 57 and 60. With the jockey claim he comes here off 47. That was only one year ago. So, that step up is a plus, as is the handicap mark.
I then wondered if he only operates at a certain time of year ‘coming to hand’ as they say. I am not sure who the ‘they’ are, but that phrase will do. A quick jump over to my HRB ‘profile’ tool for this one… in AW handicaps he is 3/7,4p in Jan/Feb/March… April to December a not so good 0/15,3p. So, there could be something of interest there. That last run showed some promise after all.
What about his actual ability, any ratings pointers? Well he is top rated geegeez speed, with a rating in the 70s. Many in here are 50 and below, plenty in the 30s. That may mean sod all, but it is a positive in my book. He is also top 3 HRB. So, there is some more scientific substance to the visuals/’hot form’. It is a weak race, and on those metrics, he is one of the best in here.
The trainer hasn’t had many runners recently but one has placed from his last 4. Trainer/Jockey are 1/4 in AW handicaps.
Finally… he gets the visor on. He wore it once in a nursery in 2014. I like that angle. At this level, with these moderate horses, you need to try different things and that may spark him into a bit more life. He may hate it of course. But, we get a nice price in which to roll that dice.
Nothing too alarming really. This is a moderate bunch and plenty in here have more to prove than the selection. He is probably a good EW bet but I always think everything should be judged on 1 point win bets, and that is what I will stick with.
The jockey is 1/18 here in handicaps- but I am not overly concerned by that really. This is a race for apprentices. He has won and placed at big prices as well, the horse that is, so I may not take much notice of the market/any drift.
The draw may be a negative, not on the stats- they seem to win from all over the place at this trip/this number of runners. Just whether he can get a position. He can race up there and if the visor works you never know, he may make all and never be passed!
Here’s hoping. So, that’s why i like him… Hot form/step up in trip/CD winner/handicap mark falling/ran ok LTO/his time of year/solid on the ratings/headgear on/can race prominently. 10s+ seems decent enough to my faltering sandy eyes.
That will be all for today.
Good luck with any bets, and a Happy Birthday to Nick.