FREE DAILY POST: 07/02/17 (complete)

just the jumps angles today…

TIPS

none.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Harry Fry Mares (10/1<)

2.20 MR – Pampanini- UP 5/1>9/2

 

Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test

3.25 MR- Monyjean (12/1< guide) (#3) UP 12/1>10/1

4.00 MR – Minella Fiveo (12/1<) (#2)

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

2.40 Here- Matrow’s Lady 3rd 5/2

 

**

Nothing else catching my eye today.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

18 Responses

  1. Fergal O Brien has a knack of improving horses from other stables,Lord Of The Island,Bells& Banjos recently,MonyJean is another one above that might fit that trend.
    H Evans used to have a very good record with chasers at Market Rasen but not so good recently,it would be a fairly speculative selection Noble Leader 4pm.The jockey has a good record over the larger obstacles here but not with trainer,horse hasn’t much to recommend it either but its 14/1 BV

  2. Moneyjean will have to improve some, Mwaleshi is the horse with the most potential, three increasing speed figureswith the last on soft.

    1. There is already 20/1 on Moneyjean,27/1 25/1 minimum
      watch Late Shipment 2:10 HEREFORD currently 5/2 may drive up to 9/2
      and best can be Dawson City currently 11/4 may goes 7/2
      Mwaleshi is good old horse Market Raisen is his course,win is risky but he is able to do it
      Look market forecast if you bet with early prices Sharp Response,12/1 will be NR if not it is my bet

  3. Hi Josh / All

    Well February has started the way January ended as far the sire’s is concerned 3 more losers including 2 that where heavily backed to make the run 16 in a row, Onwards we march hoping that correction is not too far away, Pushkin won well again under a confident ride and probably has another win him under the same conditions under a penalty ….2 more sire selections for tomorrow……………

    2.30 Newcastle – Heartstone 6.0 Betbright
    Fastnet Rock, 1M 2F, 9 runs, 4 wins, 7 places 44.44% win SR, 77.78% place SR

    She was a selection for the sires last time out at Wolves over 1M 4F finishing a one paced 4th beaten 2.5L has had a run at Newcastle previously over 1M finishing 2nd beaten 1.8L so this 1M 2F might be the ideal trip for her under favourable sire conditions.

    Staking £13.26 – 2% of £663.23

    4.40 Newcastle – Genres 2.62 Skybet / Betbright
    Champs Elysees 8 runs, 4 wins, 5 places 50.00% win SR,

    Won for the sires over C & D back on the 11/01 improving for the step up in trip after a tumbling mark in the mid 80’s for John Gosden and winning off 62 for Alan Swinbank, Still very lightly raced with only the 12 runs and off his new mark of 68 must have every chance of following up again under favourable sire conditions.

    Newcastle Dual course winners……

    Just the one fits the bill tomorrow

    3.40 Newcastle – Eastern Dragon 3.5 best odds most books

    Running off his highest ever mark of 80 now after winning a hot looking 1M class 4 handicap last time out here beating other multiple course winners Rock Warbler & Testa Rossa off 76, Same grade tomorrow and even with the 4lb penalty this looks easier than last time so hopefully he can make it a 3rd course win.

    Staking £19.28 – 2% of £964.39

    Stat of the Day

    Hereford 3.50 – Lutece 9.0 most books

    Venetia Williams is 9 runs, 4 wins, 4 places 44.44% win & place SR in C & D class 4, handicap hurdles, No other trainer in the race has a win under these conditions, For the horse ran well first time out finishing 2nd in a 2M 1/2F hurdle race at Newbury in March last year but showed very little in 3 subsequent runs, Been off the track for 63 days and returning here in the type of race the trainer does well in.

    I also have to mention the 1.50pm race at Market Rasen a class 4 juvenile hurdle, A plethora of positive stats are in this race and an eyecatching odds related runner……Nicky Henderson has an excellent record in these races here with figs of 7 runs, 4 wins, 5 places 57.14% win SR 71.43% place SR and the Irish trainer John Joseph Hanlon has a 1 run 1 win record under these conditions too and these head the market at 4/9 and 5.5 respectively but the most interesting stats are for the H J Evans runner Cry Wolf, The trainer has a good 2,1,1 record in these events here and the horse is 2nd top rated with HRB and if we look at the sire street cry in 2M 1F hurdle races on soft ground they have an 8 run,4 wins,6 place record and is available at 41.0 with betvic & bet365 and with the dead 8 runners has to be worth a small EW play.

    Good Luck All

    Steve

    1. Day off today so I thought I would have a look at the rest of the Newcastle card and found some more interesting stats….

      1.30 Exclusive Waters 5.7 Betfair

      Has his first run for trainer Gary Moss,In class 6 events at the track the trainer is 12,4,6 and in 1M 2F class 6 events he is 2,1,1, The horse is now off his lowest handicap mark of 51 after an unsuccessful spell with G A Charlton but has won on the AW off as high as 69 at Southwell and over this distance at Lingfield off 63, Well handicapped it will be interesting to see if his new trainer can bring him back to life at a level he does well with.

      2.00 Spirit of the Vale 4.3 Betfair

      This is probably now the stat of the day, Oliver Greenall in handicaps at the track is 7,5,6 – 71.43% win SR, 85.71% place SR and in class 6 handicaps is 5,4,4 with 3 of those wins coming from Rock Warbler, Already won with this filly over C & D in a class 7 and will be interesting to see if the trend continues here.

      3.05 Jan Smuts 8.8 Betfair

      If we look at Newcastle class 5 & 6 events when Hollie Doyle teams up with W Storey they are 17, 3, 6 17.65% SR +28.5 SP, this was the best stat i could dig up here.

      4.10 Lady Cristal 4.1 Betfair

      Looking at Karl Burke in non handicap class 5 races at the track he is 16,4,6 – 25.00% win SR +13.00 SP

      Cheers
      Steve

    2. I think the writing was on the wall for Eastern Dragon Steve before he entered the stall. The jockey never tried to settle him in the short time before the gates opened. Looked a bit deliberate to me.

      1. Hi Tony

        Yes i think the jockey wanted to hold him up and let him drop out the stalls, The main problem was the lack of pace in the race unlike his last race which was really competitive and run at a good lick he could run off it, but today was steady and they quickened off the front and he was never going to make up the ground needs that pace….

  4. Gary Moore sends two to Rasen, with yard returning to form:-
    325 Mr Fickle, drop on grade, longer trip, stays 2m on flat, winning hurdle form on soft – 22/1, 1/4 odds if 12 run.
    400 Royal Classic debuts as chaser, after 3 n. hurdles two years ago; could be anything in this discipline and not over-faced, if this is why he was bought 12/1.

    1. There are some less than encouraging words coming from the stable re Mr Fickle. A little more bullish about Royal Classic running well.

  5. just to be completely stupid i’m going to have a tiny punt on Maggie’s Dawn in the MR2-20 put straight into a c4 by owner/trainer David Brace and has T.Whelan on board, sire went well on soft, f/c odds 33-1 but 110+ available BF. long distance traveller @230+ miles just makes you wonder why so i’ll risk £2 just for an interest.

  6. It looked like the bumper winner for the Evan Williams yard last week was signalling a possible return to form. Firebird Flyer then ran inexplicably poorly and could have thrown many off the scent…and then we had Present Times (painfully) heading my Lord Ballim + Tornado In Milan doing many on here a big favour + Roadie Joe running well until falling.

    So who’s next?

    May be lurking at the foot of the 4.20 Hereford – Maxanisi. 25-1 in a 6 runner heavy ground Hereford 3m1f handicap off 10-6 with Adam Wedge on board.

    Has done nothing over fences yet but one of two runs will have been when yard was quiet, and marked out as having ability in a few class 4 novice hurdles (winning the first nicely) + 2 bumper wins which indicated strong stamina and a battling attitude (fighting hard in both to get up and win narrowly).

    Taking a chance here and have to take a leap of faith on the back of those two chases so far, but the signs are reasonable at these odds (and may go bigger) although cases can be made for all of the opposition too, none of which look to be real slouches.

    The bottomless ground could be a leveller and the indications from the bumpers are that Maxanisi could be well suited.

  7. 2.40 Hereford

    Gardiner’s Hill is up 21lb for two wins so 2.9 ish looks skinny, Matrow’s Lady won easily at Lingfield and would win if repeating the form but has never won back to back races and has never won right handed either so I wouldn’t be taking 3.o or so about her snapping that

    The value is in Sam Thomas’s JAMRHAM who won by 8 lengths off 74, can race here off 82 with the jockey claiming 7lbs. He was only just denied after running really well at Towcester latest and is in rude health. Getting 22lb and 19lb from the two above makes the current 7.6 on Betfair a very attractive price

    I like the return to a less testing track angle, from a very testing one, and I’m expecting a massive run

    1. I thought the same about Gardiners Hill …. then i watched the video of its last run…wow, dont see them finish like that very often!

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