TTP Jumps Notes: 03/02/17 (complete)

All qualifiers + All ratings pointers + notes

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

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1.The Ratings Pointers

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

2.45 Catt – Cracking Find UP 5/1>7/2

4.25 Catt – Bell Weir 2nd 15/8?11/8

Top 3

3.55 Catt – Inchcolm 3rd 4/1>15/8

4.25 Catt – Only A Tipple UP 9/2>7/1

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

none.

Top 3 

3.55 Catt – Inchcolm

4.25 Catt – Bell Weir

 

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

CATTERICK

2.45

Cracking Find (all hncps + micro TJC/class/runs this season) 30 5/1 UP 7/2

Askamore Darsi (all hncps + micro going/age) 18/1 UP 16/1

3.55

Inchcolm (hncp chase) 4/1 3rd 15/8

4.25

Bell Weir (all hncps) 15/8 2nd 11/8

Only A Tipple (all hncps + micro going/distance) 9/2 UP 7/1

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Askamore Darsi is the only ‘biggie’ that qualifies today and he is the only non RP horse. At 18s, 20s, I am finding it hard to leave him, carrying no support. You do want to take a price with him on recent evidence as he is likely to be pulled up again. But, and it is a big but, were he to put his best foot forward he would go close here. Any supporters will know after 1-2f whether he is travelling comfortably. He is doing three things differently really- the cheekpieces replace the visor, and it could be he just hated that the last day. He reverts to hurdles. He is 1/4,3p in this discipline and while more of a chaser,maybe reverting back will help him. And he has had a short break. His record after 60+ days is 2/4. That may be the best time to catch him these days. Something has clearly bothered him the last twice as he ran well on seasonal reappearance. I think I am happy to have a go and see. I would like some market support and as I said it may be clear after 1f that is money lent to the bookies. But there are reasons why he could go close in what isnt the strongest of races to my eye.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

RESULTS: I think this Rating Pointers Results version is correct, up to 1st.

You can download that HERE>>>

The ‘all qualifiers’ version is coming along, I am just now adding in all the ISP and BFSP prices since 1st Jan. Getting there.

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Feb Pointers…

2.15 Catt – Nomoreblackjack – 7/1

2.45 Catt – Cracking Fined – 11/2

5.30 Dund – Maknificent – 20/1

8.00 Dund – Strategic Heights 5/1

8.30 Dund – Cappadocia

 

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SAT Stats/Trends… there is a handicap chase from Sandown that has some historical stats etc and I will get a post up asap, by lunchtime, for those of you who like using such pointers.

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That is all for today. Good luck with any bets.

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

4 Responses

  1. Speculative of the day….

    Should I Stay 4.45 Catt By Muhtathir Generally 28-1 and drifting, now some 33 too. Has clearly had some problems hence a couple of long layoffs in last couple of years, but won or ran well on a handful of occasions at around this distance for previous trainer. Now with Alan Brown who has had a couple of winners with today’s jockey, one at a similarly biggish price.

    Never ran a race last time over further than today, but did contract in price slightly through the day up to the race. Back to the shorter distances it’s won at, and has pieces back on as it ran well with previously and actually ran respectably on first run for Brown after the long layoff with the P on too (left off both subsequent runs over further).

    They may have been playing a game with the two last runs, or genuinely thought it worth a try and have realised the mistake. Suspect the latter but no way of knowing for sure.

    Plenty of dangers – Hammond seems reasonably confident Kisumu will go OK, Chris Grant can pop up with a big one any time (note Broadway Belle for the future, hopefully not today), Rhythm Of Sound out for a confidence booster so prob won’t be asked too much (another to watch for a race or two down the line though, and I have a theory about how Hammond might work this, will share if it becomes apparent). Others no worldbeaters so 33 (and maybe higher later) on Should I Stay worth a small interest.

    Bushranger of the day….

    Remember Pinwood anybody?

    There are a few out today which could surprise…may even be a Bushranger party day…but suggest Political Policy 5.30 Dundalk may be most likely. Have seen it run some good races over CD, some with big weights. Has looked tired last few runs though they have been running it over a mile and 1m4f at times. Arguably 10f is favoured distance. Small worry on race spacing, there’s some arguable evidence that best performances are off slightly longer rests (if this is born out today we may well get a great return in a future race – maybe next season – by watching for the longer break), but Colin Keane has been on it for a 1m4f race and a 1m, so should be aware of when to push the button over 1m2f.

    Best value last night – bits of 14 and 16 – no longer there at this point and best priced 12 (could only see some at 14 or 15 on BF a couple of hours ago).

    Has 2 or 3 in form rivals to overcome but not impossible if on best form.

    Elsewhere the two Sir Percy runners Mamoo (4.30 Ling) and Mystikana (8.15 Kem) could run well at just about double figure odds, while wishful thinking puts old timer Corporal Maddox (2.30 Ling) into the middle of four runners entering the final furlong and nudging his head up on the line for one last big 33-1+ payday. Gramercy may be worth watching here if Ian Williams can work some magic but too short to find out.

  2. Just an observation about Askamore Darsi. I once read (pretty sure one of Nick Mordin’s theories) that any horse returning to hurdles from chasing can take a couple of races to re-acclimatise. Obviously that’s a sweeping rule to follow blind and needs to be considered on a case by case, but those I’ve noted and watched have born it out (though there could have been n number of other reasons for their performances of course). You could probably pull the full stats on this Josh…and then if it does bear out have a look at the subsequent record (ie 2nd or 3rd run back over hurdles after x number of chase starts). Maybe distance (and/or class + other variables) counts and 3 mile + slogs give plenty of time for a returning hurdler to take it slowly enough and still remain in contention. Analysis if there is time might throw up some angles.

    1. Yep I would tend to agree with that, but I like the fact he has had a break, and I would like to think they have schooled him over them – may have been trying ways at home to get his enthusiasm back, and ultimately his price allows you to forgive many an issue. Taking time to adjust to them won’t matter a jot if he isn’t in the mood/travelling early. That probably is an area for analysis although I don’t have time for that at the moment 🙂

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