Ah well a run for my money on Thursday at least. 10/1 backed into 3/1 Fav, Bowen gave him a good ride but could never quite get away and in the end was out-stayed. I questioned the stamina of the winner at this track and got that wrong but the signs were there- visor back on, 3rd run of season,and signs LTO he was about to hit peak fitness/form,and the trainer had done well at the track from very few runners. (I had noted all of that pre race so some small consolation,in terms of analysis) The booking of Bowen and the pace angle made me go with the other, and they were a similar price. That happens, sadly I didn’t have a saver on the winner. It was just pleasing to spot an over-priced horse that was backed and ran with credit.
I have tweaked my approach a tad- I got into the habit, post my first run through of any runners, at looking at the top of the market first,and I think bottling putting up bigger priced runners- I think that happens when you feel out of sorts/lacking in confidence. That is the wrong way round- it is comforting backing runners near the top end, but the way to do it is to start with the biggest price ones and see what ones you can make a case for. Well, that is the approach of Carl Nicholson I believe having read one of his ebooks some time back. He is a pretty good value judge. We shall if that can jolt me out of my slumber in the next few weeks. If i get it right it won’t take many winners for the profits to return although as always it will be a bumpy ride.
A quick mention of our current tipping star, Nick Mazur, who has been in great form lately. 16/1 and 7/1 winners on Thursday. Given he came to racing when, 2011?, that somewhat shows the journey you can go on, if having the application and to an extent access to the right tools that work for you. On fire. Let’s hope he keeps it going. Super stuff. Hopefully I can contribute some tipping points to the pot soon and we can all spur each other on.
One or two of you appear to have used Nick’s tip + a TTP horse to back the 250/1 forecast (or CSF). That is top punting. Wish i’d had that foresight!
Thankfully the TJC Live Test has had a decent start, another winner on Thursday taking the total to: 4/22,7p, +19 points
Pam Sly Fillies/Mares
3.20 Catt – Actinpieces WON 5/1
Trainer/jockey Combo– Live Test
2.15 Catt- NoMoreBlackJack (12/1<) 2nd 7/1>5/1
Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test
3.20 Catt – Conquer Gold 2nd 11/2 / La Dama De Hierro UP
Nope that is a shocker of a day. Nothing else from me today.
Good luck with any bets.