FREE DAILY POST: 03/02/17 (complete)

complete…

Ah well a run for my money on Thursday at least. 10/1 backed into 3/1 Fav, Bowen gave him a good ride but could never quite get away and in the end was out-stayed. I questioned the stamina of the winner at this track and got that wrong but the signs were there- visor back on, 3rd run of season,and signs LTO he was about to hit peak fitness/form,and the trainer had done well at the track from very few runners. (I had noted all of that pre race so some small consolation,in terms of analysis) The booking of Bowen and the pace angle made me go with the other, and they were a similar price. That happens, sadly I didn’t have a saver on the winner. It was just pleasing to spot an over-priced horse that was backed and ran with credit.

I have tweaked my approach a tad- I got into the habit, post my first run through of any runners, at looking at the top of the market first,and I think bottling putting up bigger priced runners- I think that happens when you feel out of sorts/lacking in confidence. That is the wrong way round- it is comforting backing runners near the top end, but the way to do it is to start with the biggest price ones and see what ones you can make a case for. Well, that is the approach of Carl Nicholson I believe having read one of his ebooks some time back.  He is a pretty good value judge.  We shall if that can jolt me out of my slumber in the next few weeks. If i get it right it won’t take many winners for the profits to return although as always it will be a bumpy ride.

A quick mention of our current tipping star, Nick Mazur, who has been in great form lately. 16/1 and 7/1 winners on Thursday.  Given he came to racing when, 2011?, that somewhat shows the journey you can go on, if having the application and to an extent access to the right tools that work for you. On fire. Let’s hope he keeps it going. Super stuff. Hopefully I can contribute some tipping points to the pot soon and we can all spur each other on.

One or two of you appear to have used Nick’s tip + a TTP horse to back the 250/1 forecast (or CSF). That is top punting. Wish i’d had that foresight!

Thankfully the TJC Live Test has had a decent start, another winner on Thursday taking the total to: 4/22,7p, +19 points

 

**

TIPS

None.

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Pam Sly Fillies/Mares

3.20 Catt – Actinpieces WON 5/1

 

Trainer/jockey Combo– Live Test

(4/22,7p, +19)

2.15 Catt- NoMoreBlackJack (12/1<) 2nd 7/1>5/1

 

Handicap Hurdle/Chase Portfolio– Live Test

3.20 Catt – Conquer Gold 2nd 11/2 / La Dama De Hierro UP

 

**

Nope that is a shocker of a day. Nothing else from me today.

Good luck with any bets.

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

30 Responses

  1. The Sam England juvenile in the first at Catterick has already been hammered, just went on to take 20 on Bet365 and it’s 12 from 25. Probably hasn’t taken too much money to move it anyway, but this is always the danger when everyone knows. It appears the game is well and truly up.

  2. One of the horses I mentioned in my hunter chase blog was Ask The Weatherman who made a winning Rules debut today at Wincanton. Was double figures for Cheltenham when I mentioned him on here I think and no bigger than 6s now. Thought it was a very good performance and being very long range he could be a National horse because he looks an out and out stayer.

    1. Yep looked decent Darran. Do you think he has a chance of troubling the Irish? Sounds like if it is wet you think he may have a decent chance. Looked a solid jumper. Shame about the early carnage, as I had a dabble on Loch Ba and a small forecast as you advised- money suggested he was fit enough and if so may have been the one to chase him home! Never mind.

      1. I was having a look at the Irish runners who are in the betting last night and apart from On The Fringe they don’t really worry me that much. As for the ground the fact he handles testing conditions is a big plus because so many don’t, but he handles better ground as well so it doesn’t really matter what the weather does. Yeah we were very unlucky with Loch Ba with what was a bit of a freak incident sadly. 2 more hunter chases tomorrow and both look decent contests.

  3. Well done Nick,yep its pretty dire tomorrow,a day for letting your profits rest a while,this is the best site bar none for informed analysis and value winners

  4. I have had Under Siege in my tracker waiting for its next run. Goes in the 7.15 KP on Friday, 8/1 available now. Actinpieces is also put up in Geegeez Gold, 3.20 Cat, 4/1 now. Red Avenger is out again at Dundalk on Friday, 5.30, after his odd run LTO, 5/2 now.

    Good luck.

    1. How comes Under Siege is in your tracker?

      He falls under my Stuart Williams AW system but I tend to only follow them in if money starts trickling in

      1. hi ali under siege is also in my aw stuart williams system .on my settings the system has a 32.94% strike rate 27 points profit on steamers.a 21.95% strike 72.25 points on drifters.if it steams you have value or your ok if it drifts and you have best odds guaranteed .

        1. Money has indeed come for Under Siege, which surprises me as I don’t recall a Stuart Williams being backed off the show – only steadily steaming throughout the day

          But anyway, I’ve jumped on, so good luck!

      2. Re Under Siege,

        I heard that he had had some issues before his last race which affected his performance and was expected to go better next time out. Who knows though.

        Gary Moore watch (for winning form) – 7.15 KP Dutch Golden Age – fancied to go well they say.

  5. Hi Josh / All

    Missed all the day’s racing but read through the comments, Well done Nick again your double figure odds winners are becoming a regular occurrence great stuff. I have 3 sire selections for tomorrow including our old friend Red Avenger and 1 stat of the day……………

    2.30 Lingfield – Sophisticated Heir 7.5 best odds Betvic/Paddy
    New Approach, 7F, 15 runs, 6 wins, 8 places 40.00% win SR, 53.33% place SR

    The above figs include 6 different winners & 7 different win & place horses, The selection has this combination of C & D for the first time, When jockey & trainer team up they are 27 runs, 8 wins,13 places and on AW class 6 events they are 7 runs,3 wins,4 places.

    Staking £15.28 – 2% of £764.01

    4.40 Lingfield – Mamoo 13.0 best odds 4 books
    Sir Percy 5 runs, 3 wins, 3 places 60.00% win & place SR

    3 different winners for the stats and the selection has this combination of C & D for the 1st time has ran here over 1M 4F staying on strongly suggesting that the extra furlong will help. Josey Gordon teams up with Mike Murphy for the 1st time so an interesting booking too.

    5.30 Dundalk – Red Avenger 3.5 most books
    War Front, 1M 2 1/2F, 3 runs 2 wins, 3 places 66.67% win SR 100.00% place SR

    Anything by War Front racing between 7F and 1M 21/2F here at Dundalk has to be taken seriously with probably the best sire stats of them all 32 runs, 16 wins, 26 places 50.00% win SR, 81.25% place SR….Aiden O Brien once said that War Front’s progeny love a rattling quick surface and that’s why he runs them at Dundalk. This is Red Avengers first try at the 1M 2 1/2F trip here at Dundalk but has proved he stays it winning at Haydock over the distance off 90 when trained by Ed Dunlop. Running off 92 tomorrow as long as he doesn’t get upset at the stalls like last time then he should run his race although there is not much value in the odds.

    Stat of the Day

    7.15 Kempton – Fairway to Heaven 8.0

    M Wigham in class 4 handicaps over 6F at Kempton is 10 runs, 5 wins, 5 places
    3 different winners make up the figures and the selection has his first try in class 4 C & D tomorrow. Has won at Kempton on his first start over 7F and 3 turf wins over 6F winning of as high as 89, Running off 79 tomorrow with Adam Kirby booked be interesting if money comes from this gambling stable and if so they very rarely leave empty handed

    Good luck with all your selections

    Cheers
    Steve

    1. Good luck Steve, I am enjoying your ‘stat of the day’, with any luck that will trickle in the profits over time also.

      1. Thanks Josh yes hopefully this will bring in a few winners, Unfortunate with Nomoreblackjack looks a lovely big scopey chaser a stiffer or more galloping track would have a seen a different result, definitely one to keep on side though.

        1. yep had a little nibble at 7s, never quite getting there! Get him to Carlisle I think! He may well devour that hill- always a tad on back foot, wouldn’t shock if they stepped him up to 2m4f, Wetherby maybe, make all! Still learning and he will win chases for sure. Jumped well and at speed/under pressure. Can only go one way.

  6. on what is a pretty poor days racing a quick look through the cards a couple of picks that should give me a good run for my money stuck out , no in depth analysis for no more reason than i backed them LTO.
    Ling 3-35 Mailshot 11-4
    Ling 2-30 Sophisticated Heir 11-2

    great forum really enjoying reading through the posts and have picked up a few winners so thank you.

  7. 7:45 K Lacan looks interesting, a lightly raced 6 year old having his 3rd run for R.Beckett and second back from long break.
    This is his first time dropping to a class 4 hcp, has one his only previous visit to the track and is 5lb below his winning mark. The money also seems down as was 12/1 now 6/1, 7.4 BF.

  8. Well, whether it’s going to be good or bad day of racing, I shall find out after my two musketeers had ran 🙂 Catterick 320 Total Assets 355 Foot The Bill. First one is in form second one likes Catterick and is well handicapped so should give a good run for the money.
    I like outsiders and EW bets that’s why I like those two.

    1. Good luck Marcin, not looking at the obvious is the way forwards! You don’t need many to go in at those odds to make it pay over time.

  9. Steve I mentioned once before about when the selections are at this level you must win long term.
    Today I feel that again! I know your figures where down for last month but I can say that since I started recording these bets separately they are making money! I realise I am staking differently in that I take a close look once the price is over 6/1 and unless I really like the selection I have gone 1/2pt ew instead, which has caught some big price placed horses. Like yourself I also reduce stakes on the too note runners sometimes leaving out altogether. This is a similar method to I am using with the RP horses v all qualifiers which I feel will be ok as long as I don’t miss any big price winners which unfortunately I did on the RP ones.
    It’s possible my figures are above expectation as I did one to note at 44 ew on BF that won, but that’s because I can see the case to bet it.
    I have found we have a great mix of people who know there stuff on this site and together we give the bookies a run for their money for sure and one day I expect someone on here will land a big one by combining a multi bet from the different selection posted.
    GL with the selections.

    1. Hi Gary

      Thanks for your comments, Yes it seems for January that the “ones to note” outperformed the main sires these were of a lesser SR 30% + or untested such as 1 run 1 win but as you rightly say if your playing at good odds and there is a legitimate reason to back them then over time they should do well. I may have to change the format of the main selections but will see what happens this month first to see a fuller picture of how they are doing overall. I agree one day on here a few will have a lucky 15 or accumulator of some kind and hit a big win when 4 x 16/1’s or such like comes in, such varied and astute information on Josh’s blog that is inevitable it will happen sooner rather than later

      Cheers
      Steve

    1. Oh come on Steve you know me better than that, me, taking/looking at a massive in running price, and/or a forecast with other stats qualifiers??!!… sadly not haha. Far too adventurous for me. I will make do with the 5s. The stable of tried and tested systems rolls on, throw in the TJCs and that side of things isn’t looking too bad I don’t think. I do need to do a results update on those.

      You??

      1. Haha no always an afterthought I was on at 5’s too but couldn’t help but look at the in-running odds after the event…Not bad results on a drab days racing though

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