3.55 Towc –
Try It Sometime – 1 point win – 10/1 > 3/1 fav, 2nd
Ah damn. An fine run, he was up there and on known form i thought he may out-plod the winner, who wasn’t a surprise given how their form tied in, 3rd run of the season etc. Try It Sometime looked more over-priced and sadly was out-stayed, I thought that may be the other way round. On we go.
Well the 12s didn’t last long for this one but 17/2 or bigger seems ok and I have decided to get off the fence with him. He looks interesting and a real mud lover. I had a loot at his Uttoxeter win when he was the only finisher in desperate conditions, but he just kept going. He also chased home Upbeat Cobler her and again stayed on up this punishing hill. In these conditions it isn’t impossible that he could be the last one plodding on. The jockey booking does catch the eye, as does the lack of pace- Bowen does like to be up there on chasers if he can be and if he can get him into a rhythm on the front end he could go well. He has shown glimmers of promise the last twice, his mark is dropping and he has a low weight. He could be about to strike and at this price I am happy to find out, even though it is a shocking level.
I think there is just enough to go on there in a race where they all have some questions to answer.
Of the rest…
Well nothing surprises you at this level and an in depth analysis of the rest is a bit pointless. Cheat The Cheater, if on a going day, could win this. They may try and race him more prominently as having run well at Ffos Las (finished ahead of the selection) he didn’t show up the last day. Trehan Cross is the unexposed one and could take this, but is short enough. Majical Man- I have a slight niggle as to his stamina, in this ground, at this track. I think there may be stouter stayers. The rest have the odd question also.
It is probably a race I should leave alone, and were Bowen not booked on this one I probably would do. But, given all of the above, I just found him of interest at his price. I hope they try and make all. In heavy in the past he has just kept plodding on. With his plummeting mark and low weight, that may be enough. There have been clear signs recently that he could go close soon, and with any luck it will be here. But he may tail off.
Trainer/Jockey Combo – Live Test
4.25 Towcester – Present Time (12/1<) (#4) WON 4/1> 6/1
(these are 3/21,6p, +13 points since the live test started)
I have pulled together some stats pointers for Feb for Members to use/ignore as they please. They look at trainer’s who have done well this month, over the last three years, in certain race types, at certain tracks, with certain jockeys, handicaps and none handicaps.
There are a couple of Willie Mullins snippets below for you to use as you see fit..
- Willie Mullins/Maiden Hurdle: 20 bets / 11 w / 14 p / 55% sr/ +14 SP / AE 1.39
- Willie Mullins/Clonmel: 18 bets / 9 w / 12 p / 50% sr / +31 SP / AE 1.8 (NON HANDICAPS)
CHELTENHAM ANTE-POST BETS…
Don’t forget I have set up a page for you all to discuss any Ante-Post bets you are having at the Festival, now only 6 weeks away.
This post is more prominent on the home page but can be found in the Free Reports & Systems tab HERE>>>
There are some fascinating comments already, so do add your own…
That is all for today,