FREE DAILY POST: 28/01/17 (complete)

14/1 tip in 3.40…

 

TIPS

3.40 Doncaster

Caid Du Berlais – 1 point win – 14/1 (general)

 

The first thing to say here is i think BigBadJohn may be the most likely winner and certainly the  only one in the race who could have any amount in hand,along with potentially a touch of class. Of more interest maybe is that when researching some stats for this race one did stand out, concerning unexposed types. 8 horses have lined up in this race over the last 10 years with 7 or fewer career runs to their name. 4 of them have gone on to win. Racing at Newbury LTO is a negative in this, although very small stats pools so obvious caution, he did jump out to the right at times LTO, has had 60+ days off and for an inexperienced chaser he wont have much daylight here. Those have been small field chases. I don’t know. He could hack up. My instinct is to leave anything under 6/1 i think, and that price doesn’t look likely. I am useless at judging these ones near the top of the market sometimes (often…) so instead I have left him, and just bet 1 point on the race…

Caid Du Berlais…

At the prices, to repeat an overused phrase,  he stood out to me. I need to get back to what I used to be good at which in general was homing in on horses that were a double figure price, 10s/12s+, especially in races such as these on a Saturday. That ‘going with the big priced mindset’ should have seen me back OneForArthur at 16s, and it should have seen me back that 10/1 winner at Ayr, when instead I went for a sodding 10/3 shot. That isn’t tipping, it it’s cowardice. Of course, in 5-8 runner races, there will be value in the 4/1-10/1 range and they shouldn’t be dismissed out of hand. But like it or not, my profit levels will usually be determined by how many 12s+ horses I find, and I need to get back to that.

There were 5 or 6 trends I used as a guide, a kind of profile, and he ticked all those boxes. Nicholls is the only multiple winning trainer of this race in the last 10 years also, 2/8,3 places. He is also finding some form again,possibly as his horses start getting over their winter jabs, which is well known with his yard at this time of year. So, there should be no concerns on that front. Then there is the horse… well he is a previous Paddy Power Gold Cup winner, only 3lb higher than for that a few years back (or now 2lb lower, even!) and he is totally unexposed over 24f, over fences. He hacked up at Aintree earlier in the season over hurdles at this trip and I just though there is a chance he could improve for it. It seems to happen a big quick for him these days over 21f, but plenty of ability seems to be there still. He ran ok LTO, in Graduation Chase, small field, unexposed rivals. Nicholls is a canny operator and I would like to think this has been the target for the horse.

A negative is that he is usually held up, so I wanted a price- but there is the potential for plenty of pace/pace pushers here and provided he jumps well I can see him running on late, swooping passed tired rivals…for an honourable 2nd, with Big Bad John 10 lengths clear pulling double 🙂 (I asume Burke may be the new stable jock?? She should have given that job to Adam Wedge for me, if he were available, but then what do I know)

STD is also here for the ride, which given the other cards I found of mild interest. He could have had the choice here you would think.

So, i think he has a lot in his favour. The stats/trends, trainer form, trainer record in race, touch of class, mark is fine without having loads in hand, probably targeted at the race,and has a bit of the ‘could be anything’ about him, over this trip, over fences. This is only his 10th chase start after all. Hopefully I can get a run for my money and end the month on a much needed high.

Of the rest…

Well I have mentioned the Curtis horse, obvious chance, albeit a few questions at that price. Vicente ticks a few boxes and it is dangerous to second guess Nicholls, but surely this one has bigger Spring targets in mind, The Grand National, or the Scottish again. If so, winning this would ruin his mark and chances really, I am sure they just need to protect this mark as it is. He could go well, if I have that wrong, but I hope for a quiet ride, never nearer 6th, from the back.

Coologue was on my shortlist of 3 I suppose… this has been the target according to the trainer, who is in better form than when this one was last running I think. He likes the track and will give backers a run for their money. He came second in this last year, and is a better horse this season. But I am not 100% sold on that Cheltenham form and this is a career high mark in which to win from. I thought there may be the odd one in here better treated, and he can also wallop a fence from time to time. I prefer the chances of Caid, but we shall see if I have that right.

Nothing else was really jumping out at me. I am not overly keen to back a Jonjo handicap chaser, in a decent race, at single figure odds. His one has an ok chance I suppose, running if building up to something and maybe this is the race. But he does need to step up on previous efforts. I am not sure if Ziga Boy is the same horse as last years race and if feels a stronger renewal. Southfield T and Looking Well have had too long off for me to want to back with any confidence and Mulholland has admitted there have been problems with the preparation of S T for this, which doesn’t make me want to jump at 8s. Out Sam needs to prove he can do it over fences, in a big field for me. Too many questions at the moment for a single figure price. If he puts it all together, he goes close. BallyBroker Breeze is unexposed but needs to step forward, which he may do. This race is much stronger than LTO but his trainer says he needs decent ground, which I assume is why he has had 50 days off, waiting for the right race. Not without a chance, but again I suppose CDBs back class has lured me in.

Tenor Nivernais and Third Intention have stamina questions, and to my eye Long Lunch was outstayed LTO and again this is a much stronger race, but 22s may be a tad harsh. But, I think there could be classier, stronger stayers, in here. I think that leaves Holywell who is too out of sorts for me to consider. Oh one more. Potters Cross, who is effectively 14lb higher than LTO and as such I was happy to leave in a race of this nature.

So, I think that will do. I am happy enough to have that 14/1 poke onside and hopefully he is backed. On his 4th start after a lengthy absence, hopefully he can strike.

*** 

***

 

MICRO SYSTEMS/ANGLES

Jumps Angles

Tom George Chasers 

12.35 Chelt – Singlefarmpayment

Saturday TJC

1.45 Chelt – Royal Regatta (14/1<)

**

Trainer Jockey Combos – Live Test

2.10 Uttox- Karisma King (12/1<) (#2)

3.55 Uttox- Groomed (12/1<) (#2)

4.35 Chelt – John Constable (12/1<) (#4)

 

Handicap chase/hurdle portfolio– Live Test

3.55 Uttox – Renard

**

Other

Jan Trainers – Pointers

2.25 Ling – Horstead Keynes (x2)

 

***

That will be all for the day from me. Good luck with any bets.

Josh

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

33 Responses

  1. A Jonjo chaser @ 25/1? Holywell is on a reduced mark this season with a pulled up lto – Rh track unsuitable – and has a chance to repeat his 10l beating of Don Cossack in 04/14. A fast run race would suit this strong stayer, I’m tempted. WDYT?

    1. Got to think they are aiming at the 3m handicap first day of the festival like last year and looking for the handicapper to drop him another few pounds. Took in the sky bet em route last year too. That’s said the jockey had a nicely ridden winner today. Any overnight rain wouldn’t help either. I’m siding with JJONs other one Another Hero. Got plenty in hand versus his mark in my opinion but like Holywell might be being lined up for the festival for owner.

      1. Yes, just noticed the forecast, which favours Josh’s tip and does look against Holywell.
        Helpful points JV and the Ultima looks right I can see. KW has been getting some nice patronage from JJ this season and is not to be discounted, for the yard.

  2. BALLYBOOKER BREEZE for me in the 3.40 ew lightly raced improving fits a few trends for the race distance weight carried will be okay with the going trainer in form 12/1 decent price
    antony

  3. Some Friday night early punts for Saturday, with some rain expected.

    1,10 Chn, Aso, would like some rain and a good test, 13/2.
    3.40 Don, Ziga Boy, will be suited by the course and the conditions, 11/1.
    12.35 Chn, Singlefarmpayment, still seems to be improving, 5/1.

    There are a few short priced horse plus Thistlecrack as well.

    Hopefully more tomorrow.

    1. Good shout Ziga Boy Martin…I had it 2nd in my ratings, but a selection in Josh’s members page and your affirmation let me have a max bet.

      Top stuff Martin.

  4. Good luck tomorrow guys …. am at Cheltenham for the marathon of 9 races… hoping to pick one or two to keep me on straight and narrow … hoping dodging bullets runs a nice race

  5. First night in a while with a chance to study. Singlefarmpayment looks like a good bet at Cheltenham He is a +17 with 8lb in hand and masses of improvement in him. If it was 4 furlongs further he would be emptying my account!! but I still think he will win. The big race at Doncaster is tough but with two +15’s in a row Bigbadjohn is going to be difficult to beat. Look back to his point form and he looks very well treated off 136. He beat some very admirable types . He has only been raised 3lb for two good efforts chasing and could win this a furlong!! Two other e/w pokes at Donny 12.50 with Amron Kali 16/1 and Tour De Ville 50/1 my figures give both an e/w shout. Good luck to all bets and may all come back safe human and equine.

  6. Looks like a minefield tomorrow and best of luck to anyone tipping at Cheltenham since I’m staying clear and looking forward to watching some cracking racing.

    My NAP comes from the 14:25 race at Lingfield. Kingston Kurrajong ran a cracking race LTO over course and distance in a class 2 conditions race finishing just a length 4th considering he was racing off level weights and 4 of his 5 rivals were rated at least 11lbs higher than him. That was also his first run in 6 months and he should come on for the run. In his last run last year he finished a solid 4th in a valuable £28k class 2 on the flat which has worked out well. (winner finished 2nd NTO in an even stronger £58k Class 2 Clipper at York and than was beaten less than a length in a Listed race; the 2nd placed twice in Listed races and is now rated 20lbs higher and the 3rd went close in another class 2 race). Kingston gets to race off the same mark as those last 2 runs. He is only 4 with just the 10 career so there is everey chance he has improved during the winter. He drops down to a class 3. Balding is in pretty good form with 3 winners for his last 10 runners. The jockey has won on the horse before. I expect him to win tomorrow. Even if he doesnt I would keep an eye on him for the flat campaign.

    Moving on to Doncaster and unsurprisingly I want to have a bet on Muthabir having tipped him up today. This is arguably an easier race than he would have had today although Dickie is no longer on. On the plus side Hiskett is a pretty capable 5lb claimer so the horse is technically running off the same mark that he was when I tipped him up two starts ago. That day he looked to be cruising so I suspect he still has something in hand. He ran a credible race LTO in a class 3. Trainer and jockey have combined to go 2113 for their 4 rides in 2017 so both are in excellent form. The horse has won at the track before which is always a plus so I expect a solid run.

    Moving on to the the SkyBet Chase its nice to see the sponsors offering to pay 5 places at 1/4 of the odds as long as more than 12 line up. The two I like agianst the field are Ballybooker Breeze and Another Hero. Both fit the trends pretty well and are running off low weights in a race where 13 of the last 14 runners have carried 11st 2lb or less to victory. I was pretty impressed with the former’s run LTO and in theory he should be even better for the better ground. He is still pretty unexposed with this being his 10th career and only 4th chase start. Trainer fires two bullets at the race and looks keen to win this and this appears the stable number one. Another Hero ran a very solid race LTO and ran ok in a hot race at Chepstow on seasonal re-appearance before that. Both times he had Richie McLernon on-board and with no disrespect to the jockey he gets a significant upgrade with Aidan Coleman taking the reins over tomorrow for the first time. Stable appear in better than usual form with their 4 runners running today finishing 1442 with the 2 4ths being 50/1 shots.

    1. I think JJ’s The Tailgater 1250D is a bet; won after a break last May and returns after 2 months off now to suitable conditions, after finding 3m too much lto.

    2. I am not one to blame jockey’s very often but anyone else think Keniry seemed to stop riding Kingston there or am I talking out of my pocket? Any opinions either way would be appriciated.

      1. It seems like moaning and sour grapes, but I’ve seen him do it before. It’s so frustrating. Surely the Trainer and owners must see it too.
        No you not talking out of your pocket Nick.
        I had a good day today, and that should have added to it.

        I’m glad it’s not just me who saw it.

  7. Nobody bet on Royal Vacation 12.35 Chelt,12/1 Tizzard/Brennan at that price and silence
    3.25 Chelt my long is Elegant Escape 16/1

    1. Good spot Pab although I think his owner must be a voodoo doctor given all the fallers around him in the past 2 races.

    2. Yes!, good spot Pab….to much racing…rushing to get out…missed it completely.
      Must be some way we could have an alert board.??

      Well done Pab.

  8. 215 Cheltenham – Silviniaco Conti. Yes I know there is Thistlecrack and it is madness to back against him. Well, what I think is – put another furlong on top of King Gorge Chase and it could have been a lot closer if not the other way around. Conditions will be perfect for SC to strike. I always like the stories about big favourite been beaten by an underdog. This is why I backed SC and probably this is why my return will be £0 🙂
    340 Doncaster I backed Third Intension. I can’t dismiss this one at the price. Stamina? I don’t think this should be an issue.
    Two outsiders for today then.
    Good luck to everyone.

  9. Plenty of overnight rain at Cheltenham stopped about 08:00 will definitely be soft all the way round.
    12:00 Cant believe that one of the 2 JP runners won’t turn into a NR
    12;35 I know a lot of you are for Singlefarmpayment but I thought that last race sort of fell into his lap and at the prices like Mercian Prince who stayed on well and should be suited by conditions
    3:25 Mr Mcgo expect him to outrun his price
    The conditions races are just going to be a joy to watch

  10. Observation:- From a stats point of view last Saturday Bristol de Mai could not win as no 7 year olds didn’t win the Peter Marsh. Today in 1:10 ten of the last 13 winners were 8+, my last 3 standing going through the race Shantou Flyer, Aso & Walk in the Park. Possibly horses are maturing faster now?
    Top Gamble is the only horse that makes all 3 of Geegeez 14 from 14 TV Trends! It has also at least placed on 77% of it’s runs over fences.
    A long shot that I have taken an interest in is Nefetai 5:45 Kem. Reasons are last 2 runs at 6f has been 2nd those came at Newcastle he is a front runner that should get an easy lead. Unlike Newcastle track should suit his running style. A middle draw is good for front runners. He is clear TS on Geegeez!
    His Trainer rarely comes further south than Southwell and has only had 4 runners in 5 years. 2 placed at good prices. Nefetai is a 20/1 shot.

  11. Has anyone noticed L Treadwell having one ride at Chel, and having the last 3 rides at Utt all for V Williams.
    Chel..Tenor Nivenais

    Anybody with info on this.

    Mike

  12. I have recorded venita williams HC and Novice HC CHASERS only when ridden by Liam Tredwell and
    Aiden Coleman since 26 november
    Liam 21 bets won on 4 SP 9/1 4/1 16/1 6/1 +£180 profit to £10 SP bets
    Aiden 2 bets lost on both
    Their bets today
    Liam 1.10 cheltenham Tenor Nivernais
    3.20 uttoxeter Plaisir D Amour
    3.55 uttoxeter Renaard
    Adian 1.55 doncaster Gardefort

  13. I hope a few of you were on Rich Again yesterday evening that i put up 9/2 > 11/4 and went in? Put a bit of money into the Vegas pot. I will need it as the wife wants to go to the Grand Canyon by helicopter! So I need some more winners.

    Following on from those I put up last night, some more:

    2.30 Don A Hare Breath – I think he can improve again and go higher;
    2.10 Utt Amberjam – won LTO after a long absence and hopefully can step forward again;
    3.35 LP Rydan – hoping Gary moore can find the winners enclosure, supposedly working well.

    Good luck all especially Josh, who could do with a winner to cheer him up especially if Wolves get a result.

    1. Hi Martin

      I was on Rich Again too 5.8 loves tapeta and top speed figs, I’ve noticed horses are winning multiple times at Newcastle need to investigate that further….Love Vegas spent 6 weeks there in 3 separate visits and due another soon done the helicopter and boat trip at the canyon difference in temperature from top to bottom is amazing, If you’ve never been before you will have a fab time

      Cheers
      Steve

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