TTP Jumps Notes: 26/01/17 (complete)

(additional qualifier!…) all qualifiers for now, ratings pointers + Hunter Chase bonus + notes…

1.The Ratings Pointers

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

4.Any general messages/updates etc

 

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1.The Ratings Pointers

 

None.  (ignore that, I have missed one…)

 

HorseRaceBase

Top Rated

none.

Top 3

2.00 War- Incentivise 14,30 PU- (went wrong early,hopefully he is ok) 

 

Geegeez Speed

Top Rated

2.00 War- Incentivise 14,30- PU

Top 3

none.

2.All Qualifiers against stats pack

 

FAKENHAM (abandoned)

 

 

WARWICK

2.00 – Incentivise (hncp chase) (I missed this one first time through) 14,30 – PU

2.35 – Catching On (all hncps + hncp hurdle) UP 16/1

3.45 – Carlos Du Fruitier (NHF) WON 8/1>7/1

4.20 –

General Malarkey (NHF) 14 UP 12/1>7/1

BallyGown Bay (NHF) 3rd 7/1>11/4

 

BONUS

Ireland…

3.00 Gowran- Toon River (trainer track hncp chases) UP

 

3.Any ‘Notes’ (subjective views mainly, on some of the qualifiers)

Well there is one biggie it seems, Catching On. He is 20s in a few places and may well drift. BFSP may be the place, we shall see. Given my growing mental scars with these big priced ones, I have had an EW nibble. He could win (thorough stayer,with jockey claim very well handicapped,ran ok over hurdles two runs ago after a year off) he could place, or he could be PU again, such as LTO. I do not know if there was an excuse for that run but if he could get back to his best he would out-run these lofty odds. The common theme of the big priced winners, in general,is that they have been lightly enough raced in their discipline or their circumstances had changed (Russell’s on Sat- only third start for the yard,as an example) This is only Catching On’s 11th hurdle run, so he isn’t exactly over the hill. If he bounces back to form and this turns into a slog, he could be staying on when others have had enough. Backing these when they tail off is fine, if you have been backing the biggies consistently! Still, at least my own pin landed on Hammonds 25/1 bumper winner earlier in the month. We shall see what this one does. Nothing would surprise. My gut says probably tailed off, but that isn’t a good measure sometimes.

Of the bumper runners… General Malarkey is the biggest price at around 12s and looks the most interesting to me. Mainly because NTD is in cracking form, Sam is up, the horse is related to both 2m winners and stayers- and this could turn into a test. Nigel is also 3/10 with NHF newcomers, unraced horses, at the track in the last 5 years, in fact having had a quick look, all of his bumper winners in that time look to have been unraced previously. So, he looks to have enough in his favour and I have had an EW nibble. The market may well guide.

The other two are interesting also, clearly a ‘could be anything’ quality. Again the market may give some clues but for now I have stuck with the Twister one and hopefully he gives me a run for my money.

Toon River is a big price in the bonus stats but falls down on a few of my trends etc (free post) and at age 12 would like to think some of the younger guns will have him. I have left him also.

 

 

4.Any general messages/updates etc

Oh Bugger… well it appears I missed Major Ridge who by all accounts was widely available for 25s last evening, 33s in places. If you didn’t back him you may take some satisfaction in knowing I didn’t have a penny on! That is an example of life getting in the way as I was engaged all evening and didn’t look at Major Ridge until he was 10s. I hope some of you had a nibble. That is 50 points of profit I have missed with the 25/1 winner on Saturday, and now him. Were MR 25s this morning I would like to think I would have advised in the notes that I was backing him. In the end he won in a way which suggested 10s was decent! Maybe I should underline the word ‘subjective’ above! But, some hope again, as that is the 10th, 11th maybe, winner that has been widely available at 20s or bigger this season. Some of the BFSP returns may be quite something- as that is generally a better place for those that are not backed and look likely to be sent off a big price.

While I have as yet gone through all 20/1+ shots for the month, that is the third such winner in January I think, and I am pretty certain backing all 20/1+ shots in section 2 will be very profitable over time. I should make sure I start backing some more. With any luck that makes you excited for the weeks ahead.

The awful run of the Ratings Pointers goes on, having had a superb start to the month. Hopefully it picks up in the last few days of January, into Feb.

 

Cheltenham Ante Post Bets… for interest, I have created a post whereby you AP players can discuss your fancies. There are some cracking comments already. You can check that out HERE>>>

 

5. NEW! Hunter Chase Live Trial…

I am not sure if you saw my free research piece looking at Hunter Chases (Free Reports/Systems Tab HERE>>>) but I had a very top level look at trainers and jockeys that had done well since 2014. It is a rather crude approach but as a bonus I will post these Hunter Chase selections here. IF they perform as they have in the past, taking early odds, may well help us add another 80-100 points to the pot. Theoretically. I would advise paper trading/treating with caution. You may of course just ignore them. But in my ever increasing attempts to try and add value, hopefully some of you may find them useful/of interest. They may of course fail spectacularly. Only one way to find out… (this meeting well be abandoned)

3.10 Warwick

Jockeys (33/1<) – Pearly Steps 2nd  5/1 / Poole Master UP 28/1

Trainers (16/1< guide) – Pearlysteps 2nd 5/1 / Tugboat DNQ

 

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Do join in the conversation below, we're a friendly bunch.. all questions welcome, and do share your selections or thoughts

13 Responses

  1. Couple of additions…..
    Kerry has Incentivise in the 2.00 HcCh
    G Slade-Jones has Tugboat in the 3.10 although 40’s readily available so nb anyway atm.

    Mike

    1. Ah good man Mike, cheers. I haven’t missed one for a while, but have done there!
      With Hunter Chases… I thought I had removed the odds caps in the saved systems, appears I didn’t and that is now sorted. Hopefully won’t miss one of those again – all possible bets should be posted, regardless of opening/forecast odds etc.
      Thanks again,
      Josh

  2. Josh they are only 25/1 shots if that’s what you take. After the event it’s easy to say. But I have backed some of all qualifier list only to see them win at double on the BSP so I started using BSP and what happens! Major Ridge wins and I got something like 9.72.
    Not sure whether that or watching Chamard du Lys (my banker) in the 1st at Fairyhouse cruise up to the lead at the final fence nearly come down, only for Ruby to get pack in the plate and just fail to get back up.
    Money done v money less than I would have liked!
    Every day we ride the ups and downs.

    1. Oh I agree with that Gary. On this occasion I didn’t look at him at all when he was that price. I would like to think I would have had a nibble. On the flip side, on Saturday I looked at the Russell horse and made a conscious decision to leave it. I really should stop over thinking any stats picknow that is 20/1+ at any point. I think we would be way ahead having backed the lot. All three of this month’s 25/1 winners were lightly enough raced types.
      A game of ups and downs indeed. It’s all good fun. At least the stats pack is finding the biggies,and with some regularity so far this season. Josh

  3. You’re right about the longshots. These days I find that they have far higher chances of winning than what the top-heavy market suggests, and there are huge profits to be made. I used to back each way at 9/1+ but now I raised the bar to 19/1 because those vastly underrated horses do actually run well if you pick your spots. Just today I took Deadly Approach @25 who steamed to BSP@12, went to 1.83 in play only to unseat the rider… I believed he had a solid 15% chance to win the race, and he did.

  4. Josh. I put on the RP horses regardless as to me your in or your not.
    However I have since looked at that race 2:00 W and have to laugh to think I have backed a 14 year old that has a Hcp mark higher than any he has ever won off has the handicapper no decency lol!
    That said the race is so bad has half a chance.

    1. Ha yep indeed, I am not bouncing with confidence that he will end the RP rut! That is getting to the painful end of losses in a row now, but it all means we are about to have a glut of winners 🙂 It will be interesting what they do with him, tactically. I would like them to try and make all, as if he gets into a rhythm his proven stamina will be key. tactics in that small field may be more important than handicap marks etc. You could give a chance to three of them. No one better than the Lees as keeping these old boys sweet, i think it is all the riding they do through streams and woodland etc. Happy horses. And the yard is in form. We have seen with Alfie they can ready them, so he should be fit.
      Financial Climate looks interesting, back in a small field,right class, rating etc. He can try and force it. Market not full of positives for Incentivise at the moment, but 4/1, 9/2 ok I think. despite his age. We shall see. He may just be too old now.

      1. It was indeed, I was getting a bit excited. Good run and pearly steps ran well too. I think I could get in to these hunter chase races. 🙂

  5. I had Tugboat. lol…it should have had a tug to pull it. lol.
    I heard the Post Mortem on the race and the expert pundit slagged dullatello’s jockey off as not fit to ride a horse…bit severe I thought. It’s one thin got blow one’s top on our blog, but not when it could affect a young riders future prospects.
    One thing I did take out of it though was he said most of these jockeys are at the best competent…the few above them are worth lbs to the horse.
    mmmm i’ll remember that. Good fun though.

    CDF….pulled us out though.

    1. Yep, well a poor jockey, in terms of basic competence, is dangerous for the horse and other jockeys, and I think said pundit was quite angry, I suspect in that context. Yep, hopefully our team of jockeys can do well this year, we shall see! (my day was going so poorly when I saw Paulings was steady I may have had a go at 8s!)

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